February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It seems obvious that the winter is coming to an end faster than anyone wants to admit. The best chance for snow and cold is the next 2 weeks. Once we get to March, I don't see any sustained BN until at least May.

You have been saying this since November . Eventually winter will end but not yet.

[MJO812]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Warm no?

Yes but further north 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It seems obvious that the winter is coming to an end faster than anyone wants to admit. The best chance for snow and cold is the next 2 weeks. Once we get to March, I don't see any sustained BN until at least May.

where do you come up with this stuff ?

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It seems obvious that the winter is coming to an end faster than anyone wants to admit. The best chance for snow and cold is the next 2 weeks. Once we get to March, I don't see any sustained BN until at least May.

Don’t you have something better to do than write out platitudes? Like, go throw D batteries at @Santa Claus 

[Tatamy]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes but further north 

Places north and west could do okay however it’s borderline near the coast.  Interesting run.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Places north and west could do okay however it’s borderline near the coast.  Interesting run.

stronger system will create dynamic cooling...........

[North and West]

It seems obvious that the winter is coming to an end faster than anyone wants to admit. The best chance for snow and cold is the next 2 weeks. Once we get to March, I don't see any sustained BN until at least May.

I strongly dislike the Phillies.


.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

stronger system will create dynamic cooling...........

Should show up on models in a day or two then

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

and what proof do you have that 2026 will behave like 2010, 2011 and 2015 ?

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

2015 was my best storm in march....nearly a foot, super cold and all fluffy.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

2015 was my best storm in march....nearly a foot, super cold and all fluffy.

this recent storm could have been similar but those hours of heavy sleet messed that up

[winterwarlock]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No one cares

Watching them turn bitter before the seasons change is a rite of passage

[winterwarlock]

10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

2011 i think was my favorite March ever. Did we have 60s, 70s, and even some 80's for daaaayyyze

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

2015 was my best storm in march....nearly a foot, super cold and all fluffy.

Same with me, and yes, March was below average temperaturewise, a continuation of a historically cold February (almost like how this February BN is a continuation of January).

But as we know, things even out over time, and May 2015 was near record warm. I'm seeing the same progression here. We don't go months on end BN, like we did in 95-96, with no really good reason.

[mriceyman]

this recent storm could have been similar but those hours of heavy sleet messed that up

Those hours of sleet created this winter wonderland weve had for forever


.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

2011 i think was my favorite March ever. Did we have 60s, 70s, and even some 80's for daaaayyyze

The first half to 2/3 were warm, with 60s and 70s in the middle of the month. That last week to 10 days were a return to winter, so the month ended NN. April-July 2011 was an absolute torch, culminating with all-time record highs on 7/22.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, mriceyman said:

Those hours of sleet created this winter wonderland weve had for forever


.

I'm convinced it's not melting unless we get heavy rain fog or temps in the 50s.  Even today lost very little

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, mriceyman said:

Those hours of sleet created this winter wonderland weve had for forever


.

Great for sleigh riding but how many kids even own a sled these days ? I still have mine purchased on Christmas Eve 1966 - who remembers that storm ?

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Warm no?

You need a phased, strong system to get enough dynamic cooling for snow. 

[Monty]

20 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

Noone is afraid to hear it. We're just exhausted by your insufferable, boorish repetitiveness. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

34 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

May 9 2020 we had on and off snow showers most of the day. Even NYC picked up a trace. I received almost an inch during one of the squalls with the green grass and cherry tree blossoms almost getting covered.  
 

34° and heavy snow during the afternoon of May 9. I'd only seen that one other time up around here and that was the 1977 May 9 snow event. That was much worse than the 2020, or better depending on perspective. Personally I loved it. 
 

[winterwarlock]

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm convinced it's not melting unless we get heavy rain fog or temps in the 50s.  Even today lost very little

Wait til that sun angle gets crankin

[gravitylover]

48 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Great for sleigh riding but how many kids even own a sled these days ? I still have mine purchased on Christmas Eve 1966 - who remembers that storm ?

Nope. But I have a valid excuse. I was 3 months old. 

[North and West]

Wait til that sun angle gets crankin

.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

39 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

May 9 2020 we had on and off snow showers most of the day. Even NYC picked up a trace. I received almost an inch during one of the squalls with the green grass and cherry tree blossoms almost getting covered.  
 

34° and heavy snow during the afternoon of May 9. I'd only seen that one other time up around here and that was the 1977 May 9 snow event. That was much worse than the 2020, or better depending on perspective. Personally I loved it. 
 

That snow event on May 9 showed the wasted potential of 1977. That could have been an all-time  season if March and April didn't torch. As it stands, 1976-77 was a record cold fall and winter.

[donsutherland1]

It will turn somewhat cooler to close the week. Temperatures will mainly top out in the middle to upper 30s on Thrusday and Friday. Thw weekend will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It could become even milder with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 40s next week.

Precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was -1.20 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.676 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.