February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We will be lucky to see more than an inch out of this. The trough is severely positively tilted, goes negative way too late because the phase is way late and occurs as it’s moving away over the open Atlantic and the flow is extremely fast, this thing is going to have the jets on. But this is my last comment on it, don’t want to get accused of trying to take your snow away. Btw, the new EURO AIFS just dropped accumulations again and the CMC/RGEM/GEPS want nothing to do with it. Best of luck tomorrow night

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. 

[SnoSki14]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. 

Ensembles show us getting a lot more active but until it happens the dryness will continue.  

I don't even care if it snows again, we just need precip asap. 

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, TriPol said:

Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees.

It happens at night lol

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It happens at night lol

Moon angle. The moon reflects the sun's light. 

[snowman19]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. 

The trend for over a year now since the drought pattern started has been for the models to show a lot of QPF at range only to drop it significantly as we get closer in time. The overall dryness since September, 2024 has been staggering, we’ve left the 2001-02 drought in the dust, it’s not even close

[coastalplainsnowman]

11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Moon angle. The moon reflects the sun's light. 

We're one day short of a new moon on Sunday night (only 3.8% illuminated.)  Let's see what you can do with that wise guy.

[TriPol]

4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

We're one day short of a new moon on Sunday night (only 3.8% illuminated.)  Let's see what you can do with that wise guy.

3.8% is enough to melt all the snow on the ground. 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

Just now, TriPol said:

3.8% is enough to melt all the snow on the ground. 

 

You win.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. 

The fact that we even got snow from clippers this year is a step in the right direction. We haven't really had any pan out in the last 20 years before that, since the big one on January 22, 2005 that turned into a Nor'easter. I was starting to think snow from clippers were a thing of the past.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

We will be lucky to see more than an inch out of this. The trough is severely positively tilted, goes negative way too late because the phase is way late and occurs as it’s moving away over the open Atlantic and the flow is extremely fast, this thing is going to have the jets on. But this is my last comment on it, don’t want to get accused of trying to take your snow away. Btw, the new EURO AIFS just dropped accumulations again and the CMC/RGEM/GEPS want nothing to do with it. Best of luck tomorrow night

who is "we" ? If you are talking about your area in Rockland County - yes you are on the edge of the precip shield - BUT my area in Central NJ should get more.

[sussexcountyobs]

Picked up a dusting of snow overnight.

Mostly cloudy 25F

[nycsnow]

Big jump n/w on sref

[Irish]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It happens at night lol

Most times as I'm not a morning guy. 

[SACRUS]

34 / 18 on the way to mid / upper 40s in the warmest areas.  Storm may be back on Sunday evening into Mon, then overall warmer and perhaps wetter week (thu-fri) , first shot at 50s Tuesday after a possible snowstorm. Looks to continue an active period 2/22 and beyond hovering near avg.

 

[NEG NAO]

12Z 3K Nam stronger more amped than 6Z run - looks like Central /South Jersey gets the most - 12Z 12K Nam similar

[Jt17]

12Z 3K Nam stronger more amped than 6Z run - looks like Central /South Jersey gets the most

The other thread is open btw (also you're missing a few hours of snow)


.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, the ECMWF-AIFS starting showing snowier solutions for New York City. Overnight, the guidance has shifted in that direction with the system taking a more northerly track than shown on the earlier guidance. Some of the overnight guidance such as the 2/14 6z GFS and ICON appear to have been overdone with the QPF for what is not likely to be a strong system. Those amounts will probably come down with subsequent guidance.

Currently, it looks like New York City and its nearby suburbs are in line for a 1"-2" snowfall with higher amounts likely across central New Jersey. Areas north and west of New York City, especially from White Plains north and westward will see amounts fall off and perhaps rapidly.

Most of the snow will likely fall prior to 9 am on Monday. Nevertheless, clouds could be slow to break holding temperatures to the upper 30s for most of the day. It remains possible that the mercury could reach 40° late in the day based on the 2/14 12z NBM. New York City could even see its first 40° or above low temperature since January 14th.

Since recordkeeping began in 1869, New York City has seen measurable snowfall on 11.5% of years on February 16th. The highest daily figure was 9.9" in 1996. The most recent figure was 5.0" in 2010. 

The NBM presently shows a large spread between its 25th and 75th and 10th and 90th percentile figures. These large spreads convey a still high degree of uncertainty.

A full-fledged February thaw still appears likely to crest during the middle and latter part of next week. There is fairly large uncertainty as to how warm the peak temperatures will get. 50s are possible in and around New York City.

 

[steve392]

Woke up to a dusting this morning. Wasn't expecting it. Couldn't stop dog from finding his new delicacy... Frozen rabbit pellets lol

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 65 (1946)
NYC: 63 (1946)
LGA: 60 (20000)
JFK: 62 (1990)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (2016)
NYC: -1 (2016)
LGA: 1 (2016)
JFK: 1 (2016)

 

Historical:


1798: The Norfolk Herald on Feb. 17 and the New York Spectator on March 3 reported snow in Norfolk "in many places up to six feet deep," the greatest snowfall ever experienced. Some accounts claim that 40 inches of snow fell in one night in Norfolk and along the coast, but no snow fell 25 miles inland. Over northeast North Carolina, 16 inches of snow was reported. Wind blowing from the north to northwest off the Chesapeake Bay may have enhanced the snowfall in the Norfolk area, much like the winds blowing across Lake Erie produce "lake effect snow" in New York. (Ref. Virginia Weather History)

 

1895: The most significant snowfall in the history of Houston, Texas, occurred on the 14th and 15th. The Houston area saw 20 inches of snow.

1895: One of the Deep South's greatest snowstorms took place with the following reported snow totals: Rayne, LA: 24 inches, Glaveston, TX: 15 inches and 8.2 inches at New Orleans, LA. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum)


1899: A great blizzard ended along the eastern United States giving Washington DC 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet and ended here late in the evening of the 14th. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ.
(Ref. Virginia Weather History) (David Ludlum)
The blizzard ended on Valentine's Day, dropping 16.3 inches of snow in Richmond and giving Washington, DC a snow depth of 34 inches. The city recorded its greatest monthly total with 35.2 inches and its greatest seasonal snowfall total with 54.4 inches. For the month, Harrisonburg recorded 47 inches, Winchester 39 inches and Fredericksburg 35 inches. Warrenton recorded the state monthly snowfall record with 54 inches. (Ref. Virginia Weather History)

1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston. 

1947: The Weather Bureau commissioned its first weather radar at Washington, DC. The radar network would only grow slowly over the next few years, but eventually would become the backbone of the National Weather Service's warning system. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1949: Late afternoon heavy snows began on Valentine's Day in Boise, ID and by 5:00 am the following morning, 14 new inches of snow had fallen. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1978: A winter storm brought freezing precipitation and high winds to eastern Colorado, knocking out power to thousands of people, some for more than a week. The ice accumulated to a thickness of five inches in some locations. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - A powerful storm spawned severe thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma, and produced heavy snow in the Rocky Mountain Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 27 inches at Telluride. Straight line winds gusting to 104 mph howled through Guadalupe Pass in West Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong northerly winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 56 mph at Rapid City SD, and reached 65 mph at Cody WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - While "Valentine's Day" was a soggy one in the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley, unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Valentine's Day was a snowy one for many parts of the western and central U.S. Five to ten inches of snow fell across Iowa, and 6 to 12 inches of snow blanketed northern Illinois, and strong northeasterly winds accompanied the heavy snow. Air traffic came to a halt during the evening at O'Hare Airport in Chicago, where 9.7 inches of snow was reported. More than 250 traffic accidents were reported around Des Moines IA during the evening rush hour. An icestorm glazed east central sections of Illinois, causing twelve million dollars damage in Champaign County alone. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - Dallas receives 3 inches of snow, wreaking havoc with Valentine's Day flower deliveries. The greatest snowfall since 1978 caused numerous traffic accidents, power outages and flight cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.



2007: The Valentine's Day Storm was a massive winter storm that affected most of the eastern half of North America, starting on February 12, 2007 and peaking on Valentine's Day, February 14. The storm produced heavy snowfalls across the midwestern United States from Nebraska to Ohio and produced similar conditions across parts of the northeastern United States. Significant sleet and freezing rain fell across the southern Ohio Valley and affected portions of the east coast of the United States, including the cities of Boston, Baltimore, Washington, DC., New York City and Philadelphia.(Ref. Wikipedia.org (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2007_North_America_Winter_Storm) Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 14th Worst Snowstorm

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The fact that we even got snow from clippers this year is a step in the right direction. We haven't really had any pan out in the last 20 years before that, since the big one on January 22, 2005 that turned into a Nor'easter. I was starting to think snow from clippers were a thing of the past.

It was nice to see the return of snowy clippers and a benchmark 10”+ snowstorm. But Central PA is still waiting for the return of the big Miller A tracks east of the APPS.

They have only reached average once in the last decade. State College hasn’t been in the top 20 for snowiest seasons for more than 20 years.

It has to be very rough for JB since that area has turned into one of the worst snow holes in the East.

[EastonSN+]

Should be in phase 8 by the second week of March. Could go out with one last good period.