February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We will be lucky to see more than an inch out of this. The trough is severely positively tilted, goes negative way too late because the phase is way late and occurs as it’s moving away over the open Atlantic and the flow is extremely fast, this thing is going to have the jets on. But this is my last comment on it, don’t want to get accused of trying to take your snow away. Btw, the new EURO AIFS just dropped accumulations again and the CMC/RGEM/GEPS want nothing to do with it. Best of luck tomorrow night

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. 

[SnoSki14]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. 

Ensembles show us getting a lot more active but until it happens the dryness will continue.  

I don't even care if it snows again, we just need precip asap. 

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, TriPol said:

Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees.

It happens at night lol

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It happens at night lol

Moon angle. The moon reflects the sun's light. 

[snowman19]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. 

The trend for over a year now since the drought pattern started has been for the models to show a lot of QPF at range only to drop it significantly as we get closer in time. The overall dryness since September, 2024 has been staggering, we’ve left the 2001-02 drought in the dust, it’s not even close

[coastalplainsnowman]

11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Moon angle. The moon reflects the sun's light. 

We're one day short of a new moon on Sunday night (only 3.8% illuminated.)  Let's see what you can do with that wise guy.

[TriPol]

4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

We're one day short of a new moon on Sunday night (only 3.8% illuminated.)  Let's see what you can do with that wise guy.

3.8% is enough to melt all the snow on the ground. 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

Just now, TriPol said:

3.8% is enough to melt all the snow on the ground. 

 

You win.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived. 

The fact that we even got snow from clippers this year is a step in the right direction. We haven't really had any pan out in the last 20 years before that, since the big one on January 22, 2005 that turned into a Nor'easter. I was starting to think snow from clippers were a thing of the past.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

We will be lucky to see more than an inch out of this. The trough is severely positively tilted, goes negative way too late because the phase is way late and occurs as it’s moving away over the open Atlantic and the flow is extremely fast, this thing is going to have the jets on. But this is my last comment on it, don’t want to get accused of trying to take your snow away. Btw, the new EURO AIFS just dropped accumulations again and the CMC/RGEM/GEPS want nothing to do with it. Best of luck tomorrow night

who is "we" ? If you are talking about your area in Rockland County - yes you are on the edge of the precip shield - BUT my area in Central NJ should get more.

[sussexcountyobs]

Picked up a dusting of snow overnight.

Mostly cloudy 25F

[nycsnow]

Big jump n/w on sref

[Irish]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It happens at night lol

Most times as I'm not a morning guy. 

[SACRUS]

34 / 18 on the way to mid / upper 40s in the warmest areas.  Storm may be back on Sunday evening into Mon, then overall warmer and perhaps wetter week (thu-fri) , first shot at 50s Tuesday after a possible snowstorm. Looks to continue an active period 2/22 and beyond hovering near avg.

 

[NEG NAO]

12Z 3K Nam stronger more amped than 6Z run - looks like Central /South Jersey gets the most - 12Z 12K Nam similar

[Jt17]

12Z 3K Nam stronger more amped than 6Z run - looks like Central /South Jersey gets the most

The other thread is open btw (also you're missing a few hours of snow)


.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, the ECMWF-AIFS starting showing snowier solutions for New York City. Overnight, the guidance has shifted in that direction with the system taking a more northerly track than shown on the earlier guidance. Some of the overnight guidance such as the 2/14 6z GFS and ICON appear to have been overdone with the QPF for what is not likely to be a strong system. Those amounts will probably come down with subsequent guidance.

Currently, it looks like New York City and its nearby suburbs are in line for a 1"-2" snowfall with higher amounts likely across central New Jersey. Areas north and west of New York City, especially from White Plains north and westward will see amounts fall off and perhaps rapidly.

Most of the snow will likely fall prior to 9 am on Monday. Nevertheless, clouds could be slow to break holding temperatures to the upper 30s for most of the day. It remains possible that the mercury could reach 40° late in the day based on the 2/14 12z NBM. New York City could even see its first 40° or above low temperature since January 14th.

Since recordkeeping began in 1869, New York City has seen measurable snowfall on 11.5% of years on February 16th. The highest daily figure was 9.9" in 1996. The most recent figure was 5.0" in 2010. 

The NBM presently shows a large spread between its 25th and 75th and 10th and 90th percentile figures. These large spreads convey a still high degree of uncertainty.

A full-fledged February thaw still appears likely to crest during the middle and latter part of next week. There is fairly large uncertainty as to how warm the peak temperatures will get. 50s are possible in and around New York City.