February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We can't even get that. Its been bone dry since the snowstorm. 

The entire winter has been very dry going back to November

[JustinRP37]

Been reading some about the incoming El Niño and some good researchers are saying this looks like it could lead to 2026-2028 being really warm especially in the summer. I do think that with as dry as the whole US has been that once we turn warm we will be pretty hot. I am not ready for ski season to end, so all this talk of everyone being done with winter isn’t accurate. Plus we have the Winter Olympics going on! 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The entire winter has been very dry going back to November

Last 2 years really.   

[Big Jims Videos]

How much of the snow pack was lost to sublimation vs melting? 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

All joking aside, this has been a very dry winter and drought conditions are worsening. We are going to have big issues this spring into the summer if we don’t start getting a lot of rain. As @bluewave pointed out, the end of January snowstorm didn’t have a lot of liquid equivalent, just very good ratios with the Siberian cold that was in place, it’s not going to melt down to much…..
 

 

28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There’s 1.5 to almost 2” liquid equivalent in the snow on the ground here. I agree we need a lot more but it’s not powder that’s for sure. 

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing, we do need precipation but that storm was anything but high ratio for me, expect for the start of it, which was very fluffy. I wound up with 13.1" of snow and 1.80" of liquid.  

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

But isn’t that the point? It’s been cold since then, and now we’re getting into sun angle season, so that’s when it usually breaks. I think we’re all ready for spring.


.

Climo wise we have another 4 weeks.  Once you get to about 3/10 or so it gets difficult.

[nycsnow]

Well only thing left so far showing a hit atm is the CMC lol everything else south 

[winterwx21]

I don't think it's likely to happen, but we can hope for a 12z CMC type of solution with a wet snow event for the next potential storm Sunday night into Monday. Would be nice to get at least a little accumulation from that storm to ensure that February won't be a shutout. I am glad that we're going into a mild pattern for awhile after that potential storm. We can use some 50 degree weather after how cold this winter has been. 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Well only thing left so far showing a hit atm is the CMC lol everything else south 

This is a real thread the needle situation with the borderline temps. Only a slight chance but at least it's something to watch. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

42 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Been reading some about the incoming El Niño and some good researchers are saying this looks like it could lead to 2026-2028 being really warm especially in the summer. I do think that with as dry as the whole US has been that once we turn warm we will be pretty hot. I am not ready for ski season to end, so all this talk of everyone being done with winter isn’t accurate. Plus we have the Winter Olympics going on! 

If we get a strong el nino, the summer leading into the el nino will be warm in the Western US, and the summer exiting the el nino will be warm in the Eastern US. The only time that was flipped was the 1991-92 el nino, but that was due to Pinatubo.

If the el nino ends in early 2028, then that might meaning cooler (more comfortable) weather for the 2028 Summer Olympics in LA.

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Well only thing left so far showing a hit atm is the CMC lol everything else south 

That's how you know it's toast

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's how you know it's toast

The CMC Para last night was pretty wild lmao. 

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we get a strong el nino, the summer leading into the el nino will be warm in the Western US, and the summer exiting the el nino will be warm in the Eastern US. The only time that was flipped was the 1991-92 el nino, but that was due to Pinatubo.

If the el nino ends in early 2028, then that might meaning cooler (more comfortable) weather for the 2028 Summer Olympics in LA.

I think this will be weak-moderate.  The CFs/Euro have been too strong on forecasting ENSO events.  I tend to go more with the ENSO model average...right now they barely have this even making it to 1.0....regardless mostly El Nino summers as you say are pretty cool here in the east.

[nycsnow]

Euro AI even further south at 12z followed by rain the 19th 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Euro AI even further south at 12z followed by rain the 19th 

Fat lady's gearing up on this winter...

[nycsnow]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Fat lady's gearing up on this winter...

Yup…. Hopefully we can get something else if not it was a waste of cold. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The entire winter has been very dry going back to November

Yes, but we had multiple snow events, most of them light...

[Brian5671]

Euro wiffs

[deathstar9]

Maybe for you guys, 10.4” average here after 2/28 last 10 Marches/Aprils.  Over 3” in all but 3.

[TheClimateChanger]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

And here are the most common high-low combinations for New York City:

One of the anti-Weathergamis is not like the others! You can see how the relative lack of variability in the summer versus the winter leads to many more unique combinations occurring in the wintertime than the summer. Spring and fall, of course, are more changeable in general, so they have the lowest number of common high/low pairings. Interesting data!

[MANDA]

After steadily increasing QPF amounts over the least several issuance's the latest WPC 7 day QPF has been notable decreased.

This has been an ongoing trend.  Systems that offered promise in the longer range just dwindle as we get closer.  I'm not even looking for snow at this point.  I just want some rain.

 

[Dark Star]

42 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I don't think it's likely to happen, but we can hope for a 12z CMC type of solution with a wet snow event for the next potential storm Sunday night into Monday. Would be nice to get at least a little accumulation from that storm to assure that February won't be a shutout. I am glad that we're going into a mild pattern for awhile after that potential storm. We can use some 50 degree weather after how cold this winter has been. 

 

25 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The CMC Para last night was pretty wild lmao. 

The map doesn't show a snow hole over central Union county NJ

[The 4 Seasons]

11 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Euro AI even further south at 12z followed by rain the 19th 

Yeah AIs wanted nothing to do with this system from the start, red flags

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro wiffs

Well- at least we won’t be envying Norfolk getting another 12” blizzard. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Well- at least we won’t be envying Norfolk getting another 12” blizzard. 

yep just a rain storm this go around....

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 minutes ago, deathstar9 said:

Maybe for you guys, 10.4” average here after 2/28 last 10 Marches/Aprils.  Over 3” in all but 3.

The pretty common theme here is people along the coast and in central New Jersey and the city are often pretty quick to call and end to winter in late February. For those of us 30 miles or more north and west of New York City latitude and longitude, most of March is just thought of as another winter month. 

[Nibor]

Weird mix of rain and sleet just came through lower Manhattan. 

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah AIs wanted nothing to do with this system from the start, red flags

They’ve been performing quite well this winter, gotta say. They did well with the December clipper threats too. 

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The pretty common theme here is people along the coast and in central New Jersey and the city are often pretty quick to call and end to winter in late February. For those of us 30 miles or more north and west of New York City latitude and longitude, most of March is just thought of as another winter month. 

March has a very different feel to the other months. Temperature-wise it's like late Nov into early December but with a much higher sun angle. So yes it can snow, but it almost always melts quickly. Elevation makes more difference in March too. Albany, NY tends to switch to Spring pretty quickly in March most years, while the high country of southern VT and the Catskills can still feel like deep winter. It's very location dependent but almost always categorized by freeze-thaw, mud, and residual salt grime.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

March has a very different feel to the other months. Temperature-wise it's like late Nov into early December but with a much higher sun angle. So yes it can snow, but it almost always melts quickly. Elevation makes more difference in March too. Albany, NY tends to switch to Spring pretty quickly in March most years, while the high country of southern VT and the Catskills can still feel like deep winter. It's very location dependent but almost always categorized by freeze-thaw, mud, and residual salt grime.

I agree with some of what you say, but you obviously never lived in Albany LOL.