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February 2026 OBS & Discussion


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4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ensembles continue to show only 2-3 inches of snow for their runs but 1-2 inches of liquid… I think it’s time to accept we’re transitioning into a rainy period. Sucks but it is what it is 

Delayed version of the January thaw about to rear it's ugly head this upcoming week.

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30 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Overnight low of -3.  Currently-1.

Winds still howling.

I am ready to move on.

The week ahead looks dry with moderating cold.  No torch but a least closer to normal by the end of the week.  The current snow pack is frozen solid and the mounds will be around for weeks to come out this way.

Light to moderate, cold rains can build a snowpack, rainfall wicks in and re-freezes. A great example of that was 2000-2021.

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1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Ensembles continue to show only 2-3 inches of snow for their runs but 1-2 inches of liquid… I think it’s time to accept we’re transitioning into a rainy period. Sucks but it is what it is 

They've been doing this in the fantasy range for days and nothing has come into view. 

I have zero trust in anything they show after day 4-5. 

31 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Overnight low of -3.  Currently-1.

Winds still howling.

I am ready to move on.

The week ahead looks dry with moderating cold.  No torch but a least closer to normal by the end of the week.  The current snow pack is frozen solid and the mounds will be around for weeks to come out this way.

Yeah I'm over it. If there's no more snowstorms coming then there's no need for this. 

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1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

This would cause some pretty big flooding issues I’d think

image.thumb.png.a88c205f3f864997ebaad30b841b1cd1.png

yes if it was only a couple of days away and it wasn't the GFS - look at the 06Z GFS and report back...

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23 hours ago, Tatamy said:

I am surprised that there is not ice on LI Sound.  Last time that I saw that was February 1979 during the week prior to PD1.

That was a much colder 15 day period than we just had. 
 

Minimum 15-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 12.0 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-20 0
2 12.2 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-19 0
3 12.9 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-21 0
4 12.9 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-18 0
5 14.4 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-17 0
6 14.4 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-22 0
7 15.1 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-13 0
8 15.2 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-23 0
9 15.7 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-16 0
10 15.8 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-12 0
11 16.0 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-14 0
12 16.4 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-15 0
13 16.4 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-16 0
- 16.4 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-15 0
14 17.0 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-17 0
15 17.1 1968-01-04 through 1968-01-18 0
16 17.1 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-11 0
17 17.2 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-24 0
18 17.6 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-14 0
19 17.7 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-14 0
20 17.8 1968-01-05 through 1968-01-19 0
21 17.9 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-17 0
22 18.0 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-15 0
23 18.0 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-25 0
24 18.1 1967-12-27 through 1968-01-10 0
25 18.1 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-16 0
26 18.2 2005-01-17 through 2005-01-31 0
27 18.2 2005-01-18 through 2005-02-01 0
- 18.2 1977-01-17 through 1977-01-31 0
28 18.3 1981-01-04 through 1981-01-18 0
29 18.3 1977-01-10 through 1977-01-24 0
30 18.4 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-09 0
- 18.4 1977-01-12 through 1977-01-26 0
31 18.4 1977-01-16 through 1977-01-30 0
- 18.4 1977-01-09 through 1977-01-23 0
32 18.5 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-07 0

 

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27 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Light to moderate, cold rains can build a snowpack, rainfall wicks in and re-freezes. A great example of that was 2000-2021.

no thanks - cold rain or freezing drizzle rain on top of a snowpack is no fun at all IMO- but I see it's your "thing" by your screen name :raining:

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6 / -10 off a low of 1.  Highs in teens.  Moderation 2/9 and perhaps some spots get to or exceed 40 Tue and/or Wed - (1/22 was the last time).  Week looks dry.

2/8 - 2/9 :  Ice box -15 or more below avg
2/10 - 2/15: Moderation to near avg (dry)
2/15 - 2/17 :  Possible mix- rain
2/18 - Beyond riding near avg to slightly above overall - next storm risk 2/19-2/20 period

 

current-temperature.png

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 65 (2017)
NYC: 62 (2017)
LGA: 62 (2017)
JFK: 65 (2017)


Lows:


EWR: -7 (1934)
NYC: -7 (1934)
LGA: -2 (1963)
JFK: -2 (1963)

Historical:

 

1835 - A severe cold wave gripped the southeastern U.S. The mercury dipped to 8 above at Jacksonville FL, and to zero at Savannah GA. Orange trees were killed to the roots. (David Ludlum)

1895: The minimum temperature for the date is 0 °F in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
On this date through the 9th, a severe freeze hit parts of Florida. Some record low temperatures included: Tallahassee: 11°, Ocala: 16° and 19° at Orlando. This freeze followed the December 1894 freeze and due to intervening mild weather citrus trees were greatly damaged. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1899: Soon after the third storm had passed record cold moved in to DC from Canada and by the 11th Washington, DC set its all time record low temperature of -15 °F. (p. 53 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)
The maximum temperature climbed to only -39°F in Roseau, Minnesota, the second-coldest maximum temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 states. (The coldest maximum temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 was -44°F in Glasgow, Montana, on January 12, 1916). Soon after the third storm had passed record cold moved in to Washington, DC from Canada and by the 11th Washington set their all time record low temperature of -15°. This marked the coldest day on record for Sioux City. On this day, the average temperature for Sioux City was only -24°. The low for this day was a frigid -27°, and the high was just -22°. Incidentally, these two temperatures hold the record low, and the record low-high for this date that stand to this day. Grand Meadow, MN set their all-time record February record low with -34°. (Extreme Weather p. 63, by Christopher C. Burt) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1936 - The temperature at Denver CO plunged to a record 30 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1956: From February 1-8, heavy snow fell over the Panhandle of Texas. Snowfall amounts include 43 inches in Vega, 24 inches in Hereford, and 14 inches in Amarillo. The storm caused 23 deaths and numerous injuries. It snowed continuously for 92 hours in some locations.


1957: On the 7th through the 9th Ice storms occur in Hawaii? 3 inches of clear ice up to 8 inches on downwind sides (SSW) of poles) collected on surfaces at the top of Mt. Haleakala, Maui (elevation approximately 10,000 feet). 3 miles of power lines toppled. Wind gusts to 100 mph; coldest temperatures approximately 24 degrees. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1968: The highest 1-day snow at the Savannah Airport in South Carolina occurs on this date when 3.6 inches of snow fell. 

1979: On this date through the 18th, the temperature dropped to -40° and winds in excess of 60 mph caused blowing and drifting snow at Iqaluit, Northwest Territories Canada, as blizzard conditions forced residents to stay indoors for 10 days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985 - Blue Canyon, CA, set a 24-hour February snowfall record by receiving 42 inches of snow from February 7th-8th.

1987 - A powerful storm produced blizzard conditions in the Great Lakes Region. Winds gusted to 86 mph at Janesville WI and Cleveland OH received 12 inches of snow. North winds of 50 to 70 mph raised the water level of southern Lake Michigan two feet, and produced waves 12 to 18 feet high, causing seven million dollars damage along the Chicago area shoreline. It was the most damage caused by shoreline flooding and erosion in the history of the city of Chicago. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic air invaded the north central U.S. Hibbing MN reported a morning low of 30 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm over California produced snow from the beaches of Malibu to the desert canyons around Palm Springs, and the snow created mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles Basin. Sixteen cities in the western U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Marysville CA reported an all-time record low reading of 21 degrees above zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989: Mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles area as freak snow struck California. The snow was reported from the beaches of Malibu to the desert around Palm Springs. 

1990 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across the south central and eastern U.S. Twenty-two cities, including five in Michigan, reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 53 degrees at Flint MI surpassed their previous record by ten degrees, and the high of 66 degrees at Burlington IA exceeded their old record by eight degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1994:  Ice Storm February 1994 the back to back ice storms struck on February 8 to 9 and again February 10 to 11 leaving a coat of ice, one to three inches thick, across much of the area. Areas west of Frederick County, MD saw anywhere from five to nine inches of sleet accumulate. Toward the end of the storm, this area saw light freezing rain solidify the sleet on the ground and but a glaze across trees and wires. There were scattered outages and at least 75 ice-related injuries that were treated at area hospitals. Across central and northern Maryland, Northern Virginia, the Shenandoah Valley, and the central Piedmont of Virginia, about 4 to 7 inches of sleet fell. Again in this area, light freezing rain toward the end of the storm, which solidified the ice and coated everything. It was enough to do about $5 million in damages across this region. The hardest hit area was Southern Maryland, Annapolis, and the Eastern Shore and southwest across Fredericksburg and the Northern Neck area and down toward Lynchburg and Danville in Virginia. Here, the combination of the two storms left 3 to 5 inches of ice on surfaces. It was too much for trees and wires. Some counties lost 10 percent of their trees. Fallen trees made roads impassable. Some trees fell on cars and houses. Electric and phone lines were down with as much as 90 percent of the area's people without power. Even with help from out-of-state utility companies, many people were without power for a week. A presidential disaster declaration was given for the counties affected in a 40 to 50 mile wide band all the way from Delaware southwest to Tennessee. Damages were estimated at near 100 million dollars for the Virginia-Maryland area. There were hundreds of injuries from automobile accidents and people falling on ice. It was likely the iciest winter the Baltimore-Washington area has ever seen. 1994 Scroll Down to Number 8 The Ice Storm in the Web Site List (Ref. Wilson Wx. Additional Information)

2002: A fast moving cold front brought high winds and snow to the mountains around Salt Lake City, UT as the 2002 Olympic Winter Games were getting underway. Wind gusts of up to 71 mph caused problems for Ski Jumping, and the competition had to be postponed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2009 - Snow falls at levels above elevations of 11,000 feet on the Big Island's Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea in Hawaii. The Weather Doctor

2013 - A nor'easter produced heavy snowfall over the New England states. In Boston, Massachusetts, total snowfall reached 24.9 inches, the fifth-highest total ever recorded in the city. New York City officially recorded 11.4 inches of snow at Central Park, and Portland, Maine, set a record of 31.9 inches. Hamden, Connecticut, recorded the highest snowfall of the storm at 40 inches.

 

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2 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Ensembles continue to show only 2-3 inches of snow for their runs but 1-2 inches of liquid… I think it’s time to accept we’re transitioning into a rainy period. Sucks but it is what it is 


We desperately need rain. 

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29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you didn't look at the entire event - not a big rainstorm - 12Z will probably show something different

prateptype_cat-imp.us_ne.pngsn10_024h-imp.us_ne.png

The NWS needs to take a very long, hard look at the GFS after this winter. It has been by far and away the worst performing model, no other model has been as close to being as bad. Just an utter embarrassment all winter long and needs to be addressed 

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34 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you didn't look at the entire event - not a big rainstorm - 12Z will probably show something different

prateptype_cat-imp.us_ne.pngsn10_024h-imp.us_ne.png

Irrespective of snowy vs rainy solutions, I don’t know why Op runs are ever looked at seriously for events a week away. 

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48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC had no trouble dropping to 3° since the winds stayed up throughout this Arctic outbreak.

 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc

And yet didn’t come close to the all time records.
 

To me we've just seen the new rock bottom in temps for this part of the world.

The antecedent significant cold was one ingredient. The second being that this airmass had no mitigating factors on its way to NY.


The only offset was that it originated over a much warmer 70N+…

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