February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[the_other_guy]

12 hours ago, psv88 said:

That’s not how it works…10 days of January was warm. The second half we froze. Nothing was skewed. 

all I said smarty was had we not had that warm period It would be much colder for the average.

 

Check yourself please

 

 

[nycsnow]

Models still showing the storm signal for valentines day weekend, a lot of them showing rain atm but pretty consistent on showing a storm at least 

[nycsnow]

Gfs actually is 2 rain storms lol 13&15

[winterwx21]

56 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Bone dry hope we can ger dustings Wed morning and sat morning

I was hoping to see a little something early Wednesday morning, but now it appears that it is going too far south. It looks as if our only chance of seeing a coating is with the arctic front on Friday with some snow showers. Maybe we can get a snow squall from that front. 

[TJW014]

49 years ago, February 1977. Somebody in my family (I believe my grandfather) was drunk enough and decided to drive the station wagon from Island Heights to Sedge Island to check on the old summer shack (not in this picture)

Ice was measured at 26" thick at the time. 

As of Saturday, I measured ice 8.5" thick just off Ocean Gate Yacht Club. Could be pushing 12" by this weekend. 

[winterwx21]

Finally above freezing -- 33 degrees here right now. 

[ForestHillWx]

30 in Chester.

My brother’s water supply line from the well head froze this morning; he’s up in Hamburg, NJ. He’s typically 4’ deep; perhaps too shallow. 

[Prue11]

15.02 for my low up to 30.38 now feels great 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Right now feels like all major ensembles are locked onto the idea 10-13is pretty mild...especially W of the NE/SNE, then 14-17 looks colder.  Then it comes down to what happens with the indices.  If the PNA/EPO/WPO go strong -/+/+ the month is probably cooked and it gets very mild just about everywhere in the CONUS 18-28, but does not mean March is done.  If those indices can at least settle near neutral values we may be in business since I think the AO/NAO are favorable.   Someone else too maybe in the SNE thread mentioned don't forget shortening wavelengths allow crappier 500 setups to produce storms.  I always point out how 2/8/13 and 4/6/82 had very similar 500mb patterns nationwide.  One event pretty much escaped east, the other almost cut over us and was rain.  Its a bit easier to get snow here in lousy setups in March than January, but obviously that factor can be negated by temp issues.

Both of those storms were blizzards here.  

[weatherpruf]

17 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

49 years ago, February 1977. Somebody in my family (I believe my grandfather) was drunk enough and decided to drive the station wagon from Island Heights to Sedge Island to check on the old summer shack (not in this picture)

Ice was measured at 26" thick at the time. 

As of Saturday, I measured ice 8.5" thick just off Ocean Gate Yacht Club. Could be pushing 12" by this weekend. 

my uncle had a car like that; we used to pile in the back, no seatbelts, head to the shore, sand everywhere in the car on the way back, wind blowing with the open windows, no ac, no power windows....my uncle was a great guy, ww 2 pow, but cheap as hell...worked at gm and probably got a discount...

[SACRUS]

 

32 here bright sunshine melting has begun.

[jm1220]

32 here. Streak over.

[MJO812]

31 here

[NorthShoreWx]

31° here at 12:30.  Mostly 28 - 31 on the PWS's around here.  It'll crack 32.

[jm1220]

Central Park at 28 at noon but weather stations in Manhattan above 32. 

[MANDA]

34 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

30 in Chester.

My brother’s water supply line from the well head froze this morning; he’s up in Hamburg, NJ. He’s typically 4’ deep; perhaps too shallow. 

That is really shallow.  Not good for cold like this or prolonged dry periods.  Go deeper but $$$

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep that was a very sad one to watch. Confluence crushed down on it like a sledgehammer as it tried to advance north. 

The old forecasters rule was that if the models started showing a major snowstorm in Philly it would keep coming north into our area right up until storm time.

This was the case in 1983, 1996, and 2016 when the forecasts started out showing the heaviest snows staying to the south of our area.

2-6-10 was the one exception in modern times. It was the first time in recorded history that Newark recorded less than 1” of snow with 20”+ in Philly. Let’s hope we never see a snowfall cutoff like that ever again.

Snowstorms over 20” in Philly vs Newark

1-9-1996…….PHL…31.0”….EWR….27.8”

2-7-2010……..PHL…28.5”…EWR….0.4”

12-21-2009….PHL….23.2”…EWR….11.2”

1-24-2016……PHL….22.4”…EWR….24.2”

2-13-1983……PHL….21.9”….EWR….16.1”

12-27-1909….PHL…..21.0”…EWR….7.5”

2-17-2003…..PHL…..20.7”…EWR….23.1”

 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs actually is 2 rain storms lol 13&15

Upside to this is we would clean up some of this mess.  Residual road salt is a mess around the area.  We'll see how it goes but a signal is there 2/13-15 for precipitation in some form....more likely rain or frozen to rain at least along and east of 95 at this long lead time.

[MJO812]

Thats it

33 here

[Prue11]

31.6..getting there lol

[wthrmn654]

I think central park is losing its streak today?  Much warmer then I thought it would get to today

[NEG NAO]

Central Park at 31 at 1 PM

RWR from KOKX

[tdp146]

33. Toasty

[RU848789]

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

32 here. Streak over.

I thought these streaks were temps at or below 32F, so streak wouldn't be over yet.  Not that it really matters.  If we get 2 days this week of 33 and 34 F and it then stays below 32F thru 2/10, that's still 18 days straight below 34F, which is still way below normal and just as impressive as the record of 16 days at or below 32F.  

[winterwx21]

35 here now -- feels warm after what we've been through. 

[SACRUS]

35 / 11 here

[wthrmn654]

Good afternoon everyone. We wanted to let everyone know that the streak of consecutive days of 32 or lower has ended at Central Park at 9 days. The temperature at 1:27 pm reached 33 degrees. The last time there were more than 9 consecutive days of 32 or lower at Central Park was in 2018, which was a 14 day streak that ended on January 8.