It's coming 1/31-2/1

[Franklin0529]

So close to something huge. Onto 0z 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

One of my all time favorites. My younger son still plays basketball in the gym of the middle school where I watched that storm.


.

was in grad school at rutgers; was late for class because they had front loaders removing the snow on rt 18; professor said we can't be late just because of a little snow....we were like, wtf, a little snow??? back then we had a local station, wctc, that could tell you updates.

[Prue11]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro runs are golden this far out. If you factor in the typical NW ticks then we're in a great spot 

If we saw a perfect track now I'd fear the coastal ending up by Buffalo 

This storm isn’t going west. It’s either going be an i95 east or OTS

[Franklin0529]

Eps are tasty. Lots of left leaning members in there. Skewed by a few wayyy ots

[Roger Smith]

Some early maps look like the blizzard of 1888. But why stop there? 

[Roger Smith]

12z GEM has a 960 low south of Long Island. I can guarantee you if that verifies the Boston train will not be pulling into Grand Central on time, or perhaps ever.

[hudsonvalley21]

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

12z GEM has a 960 low south of Long Island. I can guarantee you if that verifies the Boston train will not be pulling into Grand Central on time, or perhaps ever.

And still showing cold afterwards. Wondering what stage the MOJO is showing for this next possibly for Sunday?

[MJO812]

AI Euro Ensembles are west of 12z 

12z vs 18z

[TriPol]

43 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

12z GEM has a 960 low south of Long Island. I can guarantee you if that verifies the Boston train will not be pulling into Grand Central on time, or perhaps ever.

The amount of damage that would do to Long Island beaches would take years to recover from. 

[Roger Smith]

36 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

And still showing cold afterwards. Wondering what stage the MOJO is showing for this next possibly for Sunday?

Probably deep into phase 9.

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

The amount of damage that would do to Long Island beaches would take years to recover from. 

Great.  More white sand beach 'replenished' with dirt. Who do they think they're fooling?  Just say "sorry, we had to replace it with dirt."

[BoulderWX]

I’m so glad that the models aren’t all aligned and showing a 2ft storm forum wide - social media is already insane with hype  

right now we have a storm signal / that’s it. 

[TriPol]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I’m so glad that the models aren’t all aligned and showing a 2ft storm forum wide - social media is already insane with hype  

right now we have a storm signal / that’s it. 

Oh just wait until Friday. 

[Roger Smith]

SNOW SANDY TO DROP SEVENTEEN FEET OF SNOW, 120 MPH WINDS, DRIFTS COVER EMPIRE STATE BUILDING

 

is that about right? 

[coastalplainsnowman]

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Oh just wait until Friday. 

I'm sure.

Democratization of the models has taken off exponentially, it feels like since last year.  I know that probably sounds funny coming from hobbyists-at-best like me.  

Put it this way:  if you told me even two years ago that in 2026 my wife would be yelling to me from the other room that 'my guy is saying that the GFS is giving us a lot of snow but that the NAM has more sleet'  I would have laughed. Yet here we are.

 

 

[Snowlover11]

5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

SNOW SANDY TO DROP SEVENTEEN FEET OF SNOW, 120 MPH WINDS, DRIFTS COVER EMPIRE STATE BUILDING

 

is that about right? 

Only 17? What a bust.

[Freezing Drizzle]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

was in grad school at rutgers; was late for class because they had front loaders removing the snow on rt 18; professor said we can't be late just because of a little snow....we were like, wtf, a little snow??? back then we had a local station, wctc, that could tell you updates.

Speaking of Rutgers, the university closed for the first time in its long history for the Febuary 5, 1978 storm.  I was a student at Cook College then.

[hudsonvalley21]

20 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

SNOW SANDY TO DROP SEVENTEEN FEET OF SNOW, 120 MPH WINDS, DRIFTS COVER EMPIRE STATE BUILDING

 

is that about right? 

Lock it up.  By the way, how much for Philly?  

[steve392]

15 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Lock it up.  By the way, how much for Philly?  

Dusting to rain lol

[WeatherGeek2025]

Can we also do a contest for the next storm!

[Roger Smith]

How much for PHL? They will be in a subsidence zone, seven feet and 80 mph, do they have any tall buidlings? All I know is the Liberty Bell and the Flyers play there. Otherwise total ignorance, I drove through once but was too frightened to look. 

[donsutherland1]

Based on the forecast teleconnections, a track that leads to impacts in the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England regions remains plausible. The PNA+ promotes an eastern trough and the AO- block can slow the system. With the AO rising rapidly, but remaining strongly negative, the risk of suppression is reduced over what it would be were the AO to be at or below -3.000 and falling. An out-to-sea or only grazing solution remains possible, but a solution that has at least some impacts remains more likely than a purely out-to-sea solution.

IMO, the 1/26 18z ECMWF-AIFS provides a plausible outcome. It also has support from the NBM's probabilities. Currently the storm and its development remain beyond the range of the models' capability to skillfully resolve the synoptic details that will lead up to the possible event. Until then, the broader longwave pattern and its evolution offer insight. At this lead time, storm formation seems to be a reasonable scenario. A coastal or out-to-sea track are both realistic possibilities with the former still looking more likely than the latter.

By Wednesday or perhaps Thursday, there should be greater consensus on the outcome, especially as the guidance will be starting to resolve the all-important synoptic details. For now, a moderate- or high-impact storm remains on the table.

[David-LI]

00z ICON OTS

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

00z ICON OTS

nobody cares about that model, look at euro ai

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

SNOW SANDY TO DROP SEVENTEEN FEET OF SNOW, 120 MPH WINDS, DRIFTS COVER EMPIRE STATE BUILDING

 

is that about right? 

It brings up an interesting question what is your limit as a snow weenie from one storm? I have a wind limit of about 25. Never been found of high winds, they're conducive to losing power and nothing worse than watching a snow storm in a cold dark house. 

I'd put my accumulation limit at 50 inches. The February 2010 blizzard which hit the west side of the Hudson particularly hard with a heavy wet snow was when I realized I had a limit.  We had 35 inches from that storm in Highland Mills, with several inches on the ground before it began. Towards the end of the storm I started to find myself getting concerned whether my roof and decks would handle the weight. Other than that let it snow. 

[TriPol]

18 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nobody cares about that model, look at euro ai

Careful or I'll give you the weenie ring.

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Careful or I'll give you the weenie ring.

okay okay GFS loading, @David-LI do PBP

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

SNOW SANDY TO DROP SEVENTEEN FEET OF SNOW, 120 MPH WINDS, DRIFTS COVER EMPIRE STATE BUILDING

 

is that about right? 

Calling it "Snow Sandy" is gold.

[Wxbear25]

Be mindful of the fact that with the last storm the models completely underdid the western extent of the energy diving out of Canada for several days. How far west that gets when it cuts off will be a major player in how far west the coastal is

[David-LI]

27 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nobody cares about that model, look at euro ai

It's a good model.