Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Kitz Craver]

Like it’s been said many times, EOR looks like they are in the game. OTR/WOR not so much. It’s the peeps out east who are like, why are we canceling?! Lol

[ineedsnow]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Where’s ineedglasses with his micro EPS member maps

[ma blizzard]

can't wait for that inevitable run of the NAM that shows a region wide blizzard followed by a clean whiff within a couple model cycles 

[dryslot]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I hope that mean includes 10 monster hits and 41 whiffs. Go big or go home.

I'm squinting to find them.

[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I agree.....if I'm wrong, I'll admit...just had to in the other direction last week...but not there yet. This is precarious.

Hang tough! Don't bail yet!

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

There were a dozen good hits in there for E MA.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

25-50 happens often .. 100 is a little more difficult but at 4 days out with a few minor changes downstream certainly possible 

Wut? How many many many times 4 days out have we had the rug pulled with a 100 mile shift ots. All it takes is tiny initialization issues. Last storm didn't lock in until the Hurricane Hunters data started getting ingested.

[Ginx snewx]

There's a CNE NNE vibe that is funny. Looks good for ESNE perhaps but just pay attention 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wut? How many many many times 4 days out have we had the rug pulled with a 100 mile shift ots. All it takes is tiny initialization issues. Last storm didn't lock in until the Hurricane Hunters data started getting ingested.

HH did lock it, but that run up in modeling had steady positive trends almost in its entirety. This one hasn’t had that at all. I get SWFE is easier to predict, but this has felt opposite. Tip started the thread and it was biblical, we’ve been slip sliding away ever since.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There's a CNE NNE vibe that is funny. Looks good for ESNE perhaps but just pay attention 

This isn’t our storm.  
but if forced we would take it.

but I hope youse get it

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm squinting to find them.

Not much spread there.  Consensus in the mean

[Chrisrotary12]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is the problem with the Euro run  ...this is the 96 hour.  Go back and trace that through from 84 ..you can see it's spontaneously emerged out of the convection field fanning hugely in advance of the whole trough.   so...it may not be real.  it may be real.   who knows...but that's your problem with this

This actually happens in all models. At hour 66 they are initiating cyclogenisis in the Bahamas in response to the southern stream energy moving through the gulf. This then rips northeast ahead of the northern stream bowling ball paving the way for the escape e-ne. 

[Hazey]

Cautiously optimistic this will be my first double digit storm of the season. Only has to hold for 4 more days. Leo and i watch...lol

[JKEisMan]

We need some wholesale shifts, given that the ensembles are tightening up - expected as the timespan lessens. Basically we need factors that will induce whole ensemble shifts. Not impossible but time is running out.

[FXWX]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wut? How many many many times 4 days out have we had the rug pulled with a 100 mile shift ots. All it takes is tiny initialization issues. Last storm didn't lock in until the Hurricane Hunters data started getting ingested.

What cracks me up a bit, is 2 days ago we were screaming about the extreme look to the digging / closing off of the 500 level, and how rare it was! Well we still see the extreme solution, 525 closed off on the SC coast and we are just assuming it and it's surface reflection are being perfectly modeled & there will not be any surprises?  Well, maybe it is being predicted perfectly, but I remain wary?

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS came out and is SE of the 6z run but still gets a warning event here. 

It's bye-bye for Connecticut

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

What cracks me up a bit, is 2 days ago we were screaming about the extreme look to the digging / closing off of the 500 level, and how rare it was! Well we still see the extreme solution, 525 closed off on the SC coast and we are just assuming it and it's surface reflection are being perfectly modeled & there will not be any surprises?  Well, maybe it is being predicted perfectly, but I remain wary?

Psss....stop being pragmatic!  It may be contagious!  

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

This actually happens in all models. At hour 66 they are initiating cyclogenisis in the Bahamas in response to the southern stream energy moving through the gulf. This then rips northeast ahead of the northern stream bowling ball paving the way for the escape e-ne. 

oh, it's a failed phase... absolutely that's what that is... What we've been collectively looking at in the runs for the past few days. 

Seems this was not taking place when these were prior to 2 days ago, but has since... so be it.

It's a stream bi-pass... why that is...?  Not entirely certain but it looks like the U component of the navier stokes is too fast for the total wave unification to take form/merge...  that's the mathematics in how speed fucks up a phase. 

It's what this looks like - doesn't have to be the final solution.  just sayn'

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

What cracks me up a bit, is 2 days ago we were screaming about the extreme look to the digging / closing off of the 500 level, and how rare it was! Well we still see the extreme solution, 525 closed off on the SC coast and we are just assuming it and it's surface reflection are being perfectly modeled & there will not be any surprises?  Well, maybe it is being predicted perfectly, but I remain wary?

Weary and wary of Debbie's. How many times have we seen deform bands appear 100s of miles from the center. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's bye-bye for Connecticut

Maybe your part of CT like living in Springfield and saying it's bye for Massachusetts 

[Typhoon Tip]

man..hahahaha  just saw the Euro surface

i mean to successfully tease every coast from PWM down to the Va Capes like that 96 hour frame, simultaneously, some 800 miles in one contiguous arc of 'imagine if that was onshore' is really quite an achievement.   

how the hell did they do that -

[Ginx snewx]

57 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I hope that mean includes 10 monster hits and 41 whiffs. Go big or go home.

Why do you hope that? 

[Greg]

I'm just wondering out loud here if this this will end up being something that looks like this when it blows up and makes its closest pass.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Weary and wary of Debbie's. How many times have we seen deform bands appear 100s of miles from the center. 

Thats a great catch dude. That first RH map is very telling 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thats a great catch dude. That first RH map is very telling 

Not pictured is the dry air at 850mb. 

 

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

Please don’t go girl?

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Not pictured is the dry air at 850mb. 

 

On a day 4+ prog that can be worked out 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Not pictured is the dry air at 850mb. 

 

With inflow off the ocean?  Hard sell.

[dendrite]

That’s N-NE flow at 850