February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI stays to the south for the weekend.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO much further north compared to AI.  Track still very uncertain.

[snowfan]

On 2/7/2026 at 11:06 AM, snowfan said:

Some areas S and W of DC might torch on Tue or Wed.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Cliff jumping has begun in the southeast board. We may be north enough to still get something but I’m not holding my breath after the recent runs.

[H2O]

Even our best winters had warm days and rain. Aint gonna sweat things

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

Even our best winters had warm days and rain. Aint gonna sweat things

What's the avg total precip in DC for DJF? Probably about 9". Typically an inch or so of that is frozen. Seems like plenty of folks haven't learned their climo, and maybe should STFU. 

 

[Jebman]

7 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Learning about this stuff in my atmosphere and weather course this fall really shows how just objective it all is. I remember I had to learn and derive the whole solar forcing equation and calculate the temperate of earth based on the suns output. In the observed temp equation there are three variables. 1. Solar forcing 2. Albedo 3. Greenhouse gas absorption. That’s it. You can do the math and it all checks out. Then everything else falls from there. Storms ride baroclinic boundaries and the polar jet. Both of those shift north in response to our temperature. To emphasize it will snow again we will get a HECS again but gradually our chances slowly run dry until we’re all fighting for scraps over a 50 mile frozen shield on any storm that doesn’t have a great pattern. 

Me, I'd move to the Tug or to a northern or western ski resort location, kick back in my favorite lawn chair and enjoy the brobdingnagian dendrites.

[JenkinsJinkies]

37 minutes ago, H2O said:

Even our best winters had warm days and rain. Aint gonna sweat things

Yeah, but still we’re about to exit the peak snow window for our regional climo. Sun angle season and all that.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Everything looks a bit warm for this weekend, EPS and GEFS both return us to near average or below average temps after a brief warm up so perhaps some more chances, but I'm getting that feeling like I'm almost ready for spring.  One more window around Feb 20 then I'm rooting for 60 every day.  

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Everything looks a bit warm for this weekend, EPS and GEFS both return us to near average or below average temps after a brief warm up so perhaps some more chances, but I'm getting that feeling like I'm almost ready for spring.  One more window around Feb 20 then I'm rooting for 60 every day.  

If Chuck is right, I’m going to go all Allen Iverson up in here. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS pressure locations Day 6. Still some spread.

[Weather Will]

Compared to WB 6Z AI EPS at Day 6.

[JenkinsJinkies]

25 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

a brief warm up

 

I saw in the SE forum a 0z Euro temp anomaly map for the Feb 11-21 period and our area was not red. So looks like another case of a muted warmup. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

27 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Everything looks a bit warm for this weekend, EPS and GEFS both return us to near average or below average temps after a brief warm up so perhaps some more chances, but I'm getting that feeling like I'm almost ready for spring.  One more window around Feb 20 then I'm rooting for 60 every day.  

This throws away too many opportunities though. I was in Bowie in (I think it was 2018) and we got like 6 inches on March 21st or some absurd date like that. Not that we expect snow that late to stick around for awhile, but I argue that tracking season doesn't end until the vernal equinox or so. 

[Ji]

39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS pressure locations Day 6. Still some spread.

the 6z euro is way too far north. Basically its as north as its most north ensemble member

[87storms]

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

If Chuck is right, I’m going to go all Allen Iverson up in here. 

We’ve certainly had enough practice snow. It’s time for something legit.

[Benjamn3]

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, and I know it ain't much, 6z GfsAI took the southern route with marginal temps at best.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020906&fh=168

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, and I know it ain't much, 6z GfsAI took the southern route with marginal temps at best.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020906&fh=168

lol. that model just recently had the north nearly in Canada

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol. that model just recently had the north nearly in Canada

It's bad, for sure, but all the models have been all over the place. Unfortunately, even with a near perfect track, we're running into surface temp issues as Chuck's suggested. In the end, we're still in the same Niña regime which is killing us. The last gasp of trade winds (Niña influence) are progged to hang around thru the first day or 2 of March. If anyone is hoping for a late season miracle, my best guess would be wait until after the trade winds die. Otoh, if next weekend works out, that should now be considered a miracle too. Lol

[Weather Will]

Maybe I looked at too many maps the past two weeks.  Look at the latest NAM highs: are lower than I thought were forecast for this week. WB 12Z 12K NAM for 4pm Tues, Wed and Th.

[Terpeast]

Based purely on gut feel… upside is a wet 2” paste job NW of 95 before flipping to rain. I’ll take the stat padder while holding out hope for a last winter gasp end of feb or early march

[Weather Will]

12Z ICON is all rain with low heading through western Ohio into PA.

[Ji]

12Z ICON is all rain with low heading through western Ohio into PA.

That’s good because that model is never right

[Chris78]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Based purely on gut feel… upside is a wet 2” paste job NW of 95 before flipping to rain. I’ll take the stat padder while holding out hope for a last winter gasp end of feb or early march

Seems like I- 81 corridor might be the best place to be but even there it's gonna must likely flip. Of course an outcome like the Icon and its rain for everyone well up into the North East.

06z GEFS illustrates the snow chances the further NW you go

[winter_warlock]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z ICON is all rain with low heading through western Ohio into PA.

 Good. Weather usually does the complete opposite of what the ICON shows anyhow

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

That’s good because that model is never right

I mean is it that far off from the others this time, though? Seems like they all have things forming too late to catch the last of this cold. I know the AIs are still south, but...

[87storms]

Most important runs of mid February incoming…

[Paleocene]

Thump to rain on the GFS.