osfan24 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 19 minutes ago, 87storms said: There’s no “easy” way, but having a gulf that’s available for overrunning is the “best” way. Never get the hype with overrunning events. In theory, seems great but it almost always comes down to us somehow trying to thread this impossible needle between an amped up system that bring temp issues and a colder storm that has no juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12z GFS doesn't dislike @WxUSAF's shitty frontal passage 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, bncho said: 12z GFS doesn't dislike @WxUSAF's shitty frontal passage I don't think we should post the GFS outside 4 days; waste of time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 It’s only 300 out guys! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Weather Will said: I don't think we should post the GFS outside 4 days; waste of time. 1 day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I make a motion that we as a board accept and understand that modeling the atmosphere given its dynamics and fluidness and wetness and dryness and butterfly farts and what not and putting that model in motion and expecting it to be spot on at any point more than 24 hours from any event for any one precise set of locations is a fool's hope and instead use the models for the tools they are to identify potential periods of unsettled weather and plan accordingly. Do I hear a second? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: I make a motion that we as a board accept and understand that modeling the atmosphere given its dynamics and fluidness and wetness and dryness and butterfly farts and what not and putting that model in motion and expecting it to be spot on at any point more than 24 hours from any event for any one precise set of locations is a fool's hope and instead use the models for the tools they are to identify potential periods of unsettled weather and plan accordingly. Do I hear a second? I think most people can agree to this sentiment but it will never change the fact that people will weenie or deb over specific model results at range. It’s the nature of the game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I don't think we should post the GFS outside 4 days; waste of time. I don't think we should post the GFS inside 4 days; waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I don't think we should post the GFS; waste of time. Fixed it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: It’s only 300 out guys! Lol 300 hours out for the GFS is equivalent to the year 2100 for the Euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The GFS is definitely the worst of the group, but it’s not lost on me that the Euro and its counterparts were the ones that really got us sucked in to this weekends potential before it went poof. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 300 hours out for the GFS is equivalent to the year 2100 for the EuroGFS has been okay on picking up storm signals at range - it had this weekend and the weekend prior. It’s not not worth a look, just don’t trust it with the details. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Not getting snow on snow does suck but I don’t get the negative attitude about the remainder of winter. All of the op runs are showing threats/chances over the next 2 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I don't think we should post the GFS outside 4 days; waste of time. 29 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: It’s only 300 out guys! Lol Man, fuck the GFS 1 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage it's also kinda there on the ICON. more east, just as positively tilted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 For those wishing to enjoy the weekend snows at OBX, might I offer these links: https://www.outerbanksvoice.com/live-traffic-cams/ http://monumentcam.kdhnc.com/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=1957 The bottom site, Wright Brothers monument cam, doesn't have some certification, but I've checked it out many times instead last 10+ years without a problem. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 33 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 1 day 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: it's also kinda there on the ICON. more east, just as positively tilted god that looks like pure slop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 15 minutes ago, T. August said: Not getting snow on snow It'll still be snow on snow if next weekend works out for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after. Looks like we've got a shot at all 3 met winter months having below average temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage 585dm in Salt Lake City in the dead middle of Winter! Quite a Winter they are having out there in the Rockies and West coast, for a much of the area it's the #1 warmest Winter on record to date (since Dec 1). Makes me nervous about a Stronger El Nino next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, JenkinsJinkies said: Looks like we've got a shot at all 3 met winter months having below average temps? Looks like it. We were colder than average last Dec - Feb too, even though I don't know if all 3 months were below average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Guess nobody is paying attention right now - AIFS hits us for @WxUSAF's period 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 585dm in Salt Lake City in the dead middle of Winter! Quite a Winter they are having out there in the Rockies and West coast, for a much of the area it's the #1 warmest Winter on record to date (since Dec 1). Makes me nervous about a Stronger El Nino next year. Since this year was an east-based Nina, do you think we could make that into a west-based Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage Yeah but isn't that essentially the same mechanism shoving it OTS as what's happening this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, bncho said: Since this year was an east-based Nina, do you think we could make that into a west-based Nino? Hard to say if it will be east or west-based, but an El Nino is developing in the subsurface 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after. And in this case, V-Day and PD are on the same weekend, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after. My winter storms books mention that we often score when the NAO relaxes to a less negative state. If we're gonna get a big one this year I think it'll be just as this cold pattern is getting ready to flip and then we get our storm followed by warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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