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Eastern Mass Gets Their Swag Back - SWFE on Steriods - Region wide Major Snowfall - Jan 25-26, 2026 Nowcast/Obs.


Sey-Mour Snow
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30 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Sorry not fresh, but wanted to add to thread for legacy / archival purposes... I thought this was a nice bit from the Box AFD last night detailing the storm.

I'm still not sure why snowgrowth wasn't as good as many (including this AFD) expected... but with Cocorahs having generally 1.4-1.7 qpf / snow totals 15-20" (@Ginx snewx's call all week) with areas 20"+ in the expected north shore and Worcester hills... seems like SLRs ~10-12:1? Still achieved 1-1.5" / hr rates for almost entire durati

Thanks for the Tip O' Cap

Next up?? Tough decision but forecast amounts by Wednesday 

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Light snow still ongoing. Haven't checked how much has fallen since 2pm but I anticipate a few inches as my car is covered yet again :/. I imagine we are somewhere near the 14'' mark. 

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43 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Sorry not fresh, but wanted to add to thread for legacy / archival purposes... I thought this was a nice bit from the Box AFD last night detailing the storm.

I'm still not sure why snowgrowth wasn't as good as many (including this AFD) expected... but with Cocorahs having generally 1.4-1.7 qpf / snow totals 15-20" (@Ginx snewx's call all week) with areas 20"+ in the expected north shore and Worcester hills... seems like SLRs ~10-12:1? Still achieved 1-1.5" / hr rates for almost entire duration.

KEY MESSAGE 1...Major winter storm continues this evening and
overnight. Difficult to impossible travel conditions persist through
12-2am with 1-3" per hour snowfall rates.

After a bit of an early start, snowfall rates have increased to 1
inch per hour across much of the CWA this afternoon. These dangerous
travel conditions continue well into the overnight as low pressure
deepens offshore helping to increase mid level frontogenesis. The
bulk of the snow falls through about 06z with gradual improvement
into Monday morning as a dry slot works its way into the region.
Storm totals are still holding steady as of the 18z update with
totals expected to be in the 12"-18" range across the majority of
southern New England, with 8"-12" expected on the Cape, Islands, and
immediate southern coast. The higher elevations and northeastern MA
will likely see 18"-24" for much of the 495 corridor including the
Boston metro area.

Coastal low takes shape off the Del Marva Peninsula this afternoon
helping to further increase mid-level frontogenesis. In response, a
deep and robust layer of lift will extend through much of the column
including the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). BUFKIT soundings even
show the potential for 2 favorable layers for dendritic growth, one
in the mid to upper levels, and another closer to the surface with
the deep and substantial near surface cold pool. Attention turns
from mid level frontogenesis to lower level frontogenesis (925-
850mb) as a steep low level temperature gradient associated with an
incoming coastal front approaches from the south. Coastal front
initially races north across the ocean then slows to a crawl this
evening as it encounters the wedge of low level cold air on land.
Warm front aloft still continues north overnight, so expecting +SN
to slowly transition to heavy sleet along the south coast and move
inland between 00-05z Furthest inland extent looks to be along west
to east corridor extending from Providence RI to Plymouth MA. In
these locations the mid level warm nose increases to +1-2C. Perhaps
a bit more exciting for us weather lovers is the non-zero
chance for +TSSN as the mid levels warm enough for some elevated
instability this evening into the overnight. Northeasterly LLJ
increases to 30-40kts this evening as the low center passes just
S of Nantucket. Thus, could see a period of gusty winds and
blowing snow especially over the southern waters, Cape and
Islands. HREF blizzard probs remain around 20%-30%, between 22
and 05z. The limiting factors for blizzard conditions along the
south coast will be sleet and lower snow ratios as well as the
short lived nature of the gustiest winds.

Further inland, the  mid level warm front stops short of changing
the precip type to sleet and instead brings a lower ratio snow that
that will help to cap totals between 12 and 18 inches for much of
the interior. Impressive temperature gradient develops overnight
with surface temps rising to near 32 as far inland as PVD but
staying in the lower teens at ORH on the other side of the surface
warm front!

Prolific snow winds down from SW to NE as a mid level dry slot
pushes into southern New England as 500-700mb RH values fall to 40-
60%. RH values like these are hostile to snow crystal growth and
instead favor a period of "snizzle" or flurries. Any lingering snow
eventually tapers to light flurries. Last hold out for light to
moderate snow will be northeastern Massachusetts as northeasterly
flow on Monday will allow for ocean-driven snow showers to persist
into Monday afternoon. The next key message will better focus on
Monday`s snowfall.

Bufkit estimates were very accurate (both for NAM and GFS) for the locations that I checked leading up to the storm beginning.

Now whether it was right for the right reasons, or right just by chance, I’ll let the actual mets share their thoughts.

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Just does not want to stop.  We had 2 inches during daylight.  We just doubled in an hour with the fattest flakes of the storm.   Taking my son skiing tomorrow. First time for me in a few years.  He is just learning.  Fingers crossed. 

edit: Total for the storm pushing 16 with compression.  The snow shut off last night. 

image.png

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1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Snowing again while I’m shoveling. Rates are picking up and the flakes are excellent and much better than yesterday.

It’s been a snow globe for the last half hour. With at least a foot and a half of snow on the ground it’s been a glorious evening - just the way winter ought to look.

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6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

It’s been a snow globe for the last half hour. With at least a foot and a half of snow on the ground it’s been a glorious evening - just the way winter ought to look.

How much new in the last 90 min? That band has been intense. Just getting into the meat of it here and it was already stacking up with fatties falling. 

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