IronTy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Dude wants his share man... He eats better than a lot of humans on the planet...don't let his begging eyes fool you. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, GreyHat said: 18F/-3 Winds ENE 7 Humidity 51 as it starts to climb Pressure 30.46 Samuel Adams on duty One of their best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Beautiful out here! I wouldn’t mind living in the Panhandle. Long commute, but man! It’s so pretty Yeah - we figured that out about 15 years ago and never looked back. Commute a pain, but if you can swing remote work and only commute 2 days a week, then it's well worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, IronTy said: I was gonna take it down this trip up here but I think I'll wait til the end of February. Goes well with the snow. We keep ours up (without ornaments) there until the end of winter. Really goes well with the season and snow there. Enjoy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That’s actually model output my friend!! Ratios out here average 11-12:1 on a normal setup. Welcome to the great NW (Crew) lol How much of an effect does living west of the fall line have with this CAD setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Weather Will said: WB OZ HRRR I don't know what to think about it for D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I don't know what to think about it for D.C. At this point, I'll take it. 9 inches combined for DC. With a little compression, maybe it's 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Great spot indeed, similar zone to my yard. I had us basically at the border of 7-11 & 9-13, so our calls line up well. Definitely has some boom potential if we get the QPF outputs of the 18z suite. The key for out here is that one 7hr block between 11-18z. The 7H jet really cranks and precip explodes over eastern WV and slides north. That’s actually something I’ve noticed with the AIFS doing as well and why it keeps a maxima of QPF and snow over our areas. HRRR is indicating that and other CAMs have similar signatures. 1-2”/hr are 100% possible in that type of evolution. Never breaks out of the teens during height of snow. Dendrites followed by massive aggregates before the flip. Should be fun….hopefully 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one Wow man super happy for you! You are gonna get annihilated! ENJOY IT TO THE FULL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, bncho said: How much of an effect does living west of the fall line have with this CAD setup? Probably not much for snow vs sleet since the problem there isn't a few hundred feet in elevation, rather warming at 9k-10k feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Can you share how this continues on and your perceptions of outcome versus a variety of expectations developed from today and even 3 days back? No prob. I figured I was mostly cooked in the big snow dept 3 days ago but I also assumed I would get 3" of snow no matter what. Today's models and upstream obs in TN mostly verifying made me change my mind that 3" of clean snow would be the high bar. Temps have been breaking colder. My high was 21 (forecast 25) and I'm already down to 14 with a forecast low of 17. I'm sitting at a half inch of snow right now and the sleet line is where models had it so I expect the flip to be on time around 12-1am. I skeptical I hit 3" before the sleet moves in but I have a few hours to go. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Beautiful out here! I wouldn’t mind living in the Panhandle. Long commute, but man! It’s so pretty They have a better transit system there than Baltimore. Seriously. And the pipes are thawed!! I don't think there's any damage, and I've left on the upstairs bathroom sink to trickle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, mitchnick said: Probably not much for snow vs sleet since the problem isn't a few hundred feet in elevation, rather warming at 9k-10k feet. That's what I thought, makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, bncho said: How much of an effect does living west of the fall line have with this CAD setup? Further west in these setups is typically more favorable. Cold air near the surface is very tough to erode within the Piedmont down through the Shenandoah. South to southeast flow can eventually get here and change over ptype, but they are last to change in a typical setup. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: They have a better transit system there than Baltimore. Seriously. And the pipes are thawed!! I don't think there's any damage, and I've left on the upstairs bathroom sink to trickle. That's not saying much about having better transit than Baltimore 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Further west in these setups is typically more favorable. Cold air near the surface is very tough to erode within the Piedmont down through the Shenandoah. South to southeast flow can eventually get here and change over ptype, but they are last to change in a typical setup. I guess I woulda been better 5 miles west of here on the other side of blue ridge summit? Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 11 minutes ago, Wxtrix said: we have a fake one and ours is still up. Christmas used to end at Candlemas after all (Feb 2). Tree is down but I just took down outside lights. Would have loved to see them in the snow. But not sure how they'd come through whatever we're about to get. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Further west in these setups is typically more favorable. Cold air near the surface is very tough to erode within the Piedmont down through the Shenandoah. South to southeast flow can eventually get here and change over ptype, but they are last to change in a typical setup. Isn't the cold air up at 700-800mb, though? That's not really "near" the surface. Wouldn't it be more of a gradient just because the warm nose just takes a little bit longer to reach those NW areas not because of elevation, but because they're just farther NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, bncho said: Isn't the cold air up at 700-800mb, though? That's not really "near" the surface. Wouldn't it be more of a gradient just because the warm nose just takes a little bit longer to reach those NW areas not because of elevation, but because they're just farther NW? Oh okay. You referenced CAD, so I was more talking about traditional surface CAD. Here it kind of holds on a bit longer due to latitude, but they will changeover out here. Sorry if I misunderstood! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 832 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week with sub-zero wind chills likely at times. MDZ003>005-502-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-504-250945- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Eastern Mineral- 832 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 10 and 14 inches, with up to 18 inches possible near the Mason-Dixon line. Ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch, mainly across the northern Shenandoah Valley. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period of very cold wind chills continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next week. NWS keeping forecast as us for NW. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 DC also same. District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 832 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 6 and 10 inches, with up to 12 inches possible, especially in the far northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, and northern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway 50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period of wind chills in the single digits and teens continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 21 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one Great spot. And pretty country. Enjoy the storm man. You work hard for this stuff. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 17/-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18 degrees in Germantown with moon and stars visible through thin clouds. We will see if we break the seven-year streak of no 6-plus inch snows here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Here was the IAD sounding from 00z. Moisture starting to build in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 0z 3km NAM initialized quite a bit colder. Here is the last three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 12k Nam won't budge. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 0z 3km NAM initialized quite a bit colder. Here is the last three runs. But also drier unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Put down the tropicaltidbits everyone! 3 1 6 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, WxUSAF said: Put down the tropicaltidbits everyone! What do you mean? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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