January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[IronTy]

16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Dude wants his share man...

He eats better than a lot of humans on the planet...don't let his begging eyes fool you.   

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

18F/-3

Winds ENE 7

Humidity 51 as it starts to climb

Pressure  30.46

Samuel Adams on duty 

One of their best.

[MountainGeek]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Beautiful out here! I wouldn’t mind living in the Panhandle. Long commute, but man! It’s so pretty 

Yeah - we figured that out about 15 years ago and never looked back. Commute a pain, but if you can swing remote work and only commute 2 days a week, then it's well worth it. 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

I was gonna take it down this trip up here but I think I'll wait til the end of February.  Goes well with the snow.  

We keep ours up (without ornaments) there until the end of winter.  Really goes well with the season and snow there.  Enjoy!

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That’s actually model output my friend!! Ratios out here average 11-12:1 on a normal setup. Welcome to the great NW (Crew) lol  

How much of an effect does living west of the fall line have with this CAD setup?

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB OZ HRRR

I don't know what to think about it for D.C.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I don't know what to think about it for D.C.

At this point, I'll take it. 9 inches combined for DC. With a little compression, maybe it's 8. 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Great spot indeed, similar zone to my yard. I had us basically at the border of 7-11 & 9-13, so our calls line up well. Definitely has some boom potential if we get the QPF outputs of the 18z suite. 

The key for out here is that one 7hr block between 11-18z. The 7H jet really cranks and precip explodes over eastern WV and slides north. That’s actually something I’ve noticed with the AIFS doing as well and why it keeps a maxima of QPF and snow over our areas. HRRR is indicating that and other CAMs have similar signatures. 1-2”/hr are 100% possible in that type of evolution. Never breaks out of the teens during height of snow. Dendrites followed by massive aggregates before the flip. Should be fun….hopefully 

[Jebman]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one 

Wow man super happy for you! You are gonna get annihilated! ENJOY IT TO THE FULL!

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

How much of an effect does living west of the fall line have with this CAD setup?

Probably not much for snow vs sleet since the problem there isn't a few hundred feet in elevation, rather warming at 9k-10k feet.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Can you share how this continues on and your perceptions of outcome versus a variety of expectations developed from today and even 3 days back? 

No prob. I figured I was mostly cooked in the big snow dept 3 days ago but I also assumed I would get 3" of snow no matter what. Today's models and upstream obs in TN mostly verifying made me change my mind that 3" of clean snow would be the high bar.

Temps have been breaking colder. My high was 21 (forecast 25) and I'm already down to 14 with a forecast low of 17. 

I'm sitting at a half inch of snow right now and the sleet line is where models had it so I expect the flip to be on time around 12-1am. I skeptical I hit 3" before the sleet moves in but I have a few hours to go. 

[nw baltimore wx]

 

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Beautiful out here! I wouldn’t mind living in the Panhandle. Long commute, but man! It’s so pretty 

They have a better transit system there than Baltimore.  Seriously.

 

And the pipes are thawed!!  I don't think there's any damage, and I've left on the upstairs bathroom sink to trickle.

[bncho]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Probably not much for snow vs sleet since the problem isn't a few hundred feet in elevation, rather warming at 9k-10k feet.

That's what I thought, makes sense.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

How much of an effect does living west of the fall line have with this CAD setup?

Further west in these setups is typically more favorable. Cold air near the surface is very tough to erode within the Piedmont down through the Shenandoah. South to southeast flow can eventually get here and change over ptype, but they are last to change in a typical setup. 

[RickinBaltimore]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

 

They have a better transit system there than Baltimore.  Seriously.

 

And the pipes are thawed!!  I don't think there's any damage, and I've left on the upstairs bathroom sink to trickle.

That's not saying much about having better transit than Baltimore

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Further west in these setups is typically more favorable. Cold air near the surface is very tough to erode within the Piedmont down through the Shenandoah. South to southeast flow can eventually get here and change over ptype, but they are last to change in a typical setup. 

I guess I woulda been better 5 miles west of here on the other side of blue ridge summit? Haha

[NovaWahoo]

11 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

we have a fake one and ours is still up. Christmas used to end at Candlemas after all (Feb 2).

Tree is down but I just took down outside lights. Would have loved to see them in the snow. But not sure how they'd come through whatever we're about to get. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Further west in these setups is typically more favorable. Cold air near the surface is very tough to erode within the Piedmont down through the Shenandoah. South to southeast flow can eventually get here and change over ptype, but they are last to change in a typical setup. 

Isn't the cold air up at 700-800mb, though? That's not really "near" the surface. Wouldn't it be more of a gradient just because the warm nose just takes a little bit longer to reach those NW areas not because of elevation, but because they're just farther NW?

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, bncho said:

Isn't the cold air up at 700-800mb, though? That's not really "near" the surface. Wouldn't it be more of a gradient just because the warm nose just takes a little bit longer to reach those NW areas not because of elevation, but because they're just farther NW?

Oh okay. You referenced CAD, so I was more talking about traditional surface CAD. Here it kind of holds on a bit longer due to latitude, but they will changeover out here. Sorry if I misunderstood! 

[Weather Will]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
832 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over
the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow
beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially
south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition
to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold
temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week
with sub-zero wind chills likely at times.

MDZ003>005-502-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-504-250945-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western
Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Eastern Mineral-
832 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 10 and 14 inches, with up to 18 inches
  possible near the Mason-Dixon line. Ice accumulations up to a
  tenth of an inch, mainly across the northern Shenandoah Valley.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northern
  and northwest Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at
  times. A prolonged period of very cold wind chills continues this
  evening and lasting through the middle of next week.

NWS keeping forecast as us for NW.

[Weather Will]

DC also same.

District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and
Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast
Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Culpeper-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern
Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
832 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 6 and 10 inches, with up to 12 inches
  possible, especially in the far northern and western suburbs of
  Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two
  tenths of an inch.


* WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, and northern Maryland,
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway
  50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A
  prolonged period of wind chills in the single digits and teens
  continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next
  week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

[clskinsfan]

21 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one 

Great spot. And pretty country. Enjoy the storm man. You work hard for this stuff. 

[weatherCCB]

17/-5

[BlizzardNole]

18 degrees in Germantown with moon and stars visible through thin clouds.  We will see if we break the seven-year streak of no 6-plus inch snows here.

[Nomz]

Here was the IAD sounding from 00z. Moisture starting to build in.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

0z 3km NAM initialized quite a bit colder. Here is the last three runs.

[mitchnick]

12k Nam won't budge.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

0z 3km NAM initialized quite a bit colder. Here is the last three runs.

But also drier unfortunately. 

[WxUSAF]

Put down the tropicaltidbits everyone!

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Put down the tropicaltidbits everyone!

What do you mean?