Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Metasequoia]

Snow is the best,  but one of the things I like about sleet is how loud it is. It adds another dimension to storms.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Luckily, we are very much running out of time for  additional nudges in the wrong direction. I feel like this has been locked in, at least for the metro areas, for a long time. My guess for the dc beltway area is 6" then sleet flip. More snow than that, I will be pleased as punch.

2 more runs

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I'm expecting 3-6" snow, 1-3" sleet, .10" freezing rain DCA.

[wawarriors4]

My bar in Stafford has always been verifying a WSW via Snow alone, so 5” Snow is o/u. Seems doable.

Actual forecast, 4-7” of Snow, 2-3” of Sleet and around 0.25” of ice. Hopefully I bust low on Snow and high on ice!

[konksw]

4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I'm expecting 3-6" snow, 1-3" sleet, .10" freezing rain DCA.

Good thing is that if that is what is measured at DCA it’s almost guaranteed to be more for everyone else actually in DC. 

[adelphi_sky]

Saving grace is that whatever falls will hang around. Also, easier to shovel. I think 6” is doable and would make most of us happy. Still interested to see how this low battles these true arctic highs.


.

[stormy]

I lost 1.8" on the EURO from 06 - 12z

[konksw]

Just now, stormy said:

I lost 1.8" on the EURO from 06 - 12z

1.8 is a wiggle that could be swung by where banding sets up. 

[LordBaltimore]

4 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Saving grace is that whatever falls will hang around. Also, easier to shovel. I think 6” is doable and would make most of us happy. Still interested to see how this low battles these true arctic highs.


.

This will literally be the most difficult thing to shovel most people have seen in years. God help anyone who doesn't put up their wiper blades

[adelphi_sky]

This will literally be the most difficult thing to shovel most people have seen in years

Talking in terms of totals. If we get 4-6” snow/sleet, that’s a lot easier to shovel than 10-12” of snow/sleet.


.

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

My bar in Stafford has always been verifying a WSW via Snow alone, so 5” Snow is o/u. Seems doable.

Actual forecast, 4-7” of Snow, 2-3” of Sleet and around 0.25” of ice. Hopefully I bust low on Snow and high on ice!

When you start pinging I know I am on borrowed time.  I’ll be checking in with you.

[JenkinsJinkies]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So my recommendation and plan is to take the euro and 3k NAM, weight them with gut feeling and a dash of weenie hopium and call it a day. But YMMV. 

I wonder how well the snow performs as it passes through the TN area could give a feel to how it’ll do here?

[high risk]

4 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

This will literally be the most difficult thing to shovel most people have seen in years. God help anyone who doesn't put up their wiper blades

    Agree fully.    The wet content of what's on the ground followed by the deep freeze means that it will take a long time to get sidewalks and side streets back in order

[canderson]

Just now, LordBaltimore said:

This will literally be the most difficult thing to shovel most people have seen in years

Shovel early, while still snowing, so you have a base layer of snow to help the sleet not fuse with pavement 

[Ji]

The Euro is a serious thump tomorrow morning. That is going to be fun. 

Are we back?

[wasnow215]

Love being a part of this weather community! Can somebody please do me a favor and post the freezing rain totals from the 12 z euro?0

[Grothar of Herndon]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I wonder how well the snow performs as it passes through the TN area could give a feel to how it’ll do here?

Tri-City airport on the east TN southwest VA boarder current temperature is 35F. Showing high tomorrow of 50F.

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Are we back?

I mean we’re rapidly running out of time for a Euro cave.

[WesternFringe]

51 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It definitely trended north since 0z.  

 

I don’t think it went north, it just cut down on snow totals on the southern edge in favor of ice

[Weather Will]

NWS keeping big totals in forecast  for NW zones.

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over
the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow
beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially
south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition
to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold
temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week
with sub-zero wind chills likely at times.

MDZ003>005-502-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-504-250215-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western
Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Eastern Mineral-
115 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 9 and 13 inches, with up to 16 inches
  possible in western Maryland. Ice accumulations up to a tenth of
  an inch, mainly across the northern Shenandoah Valley.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northern
  and northwest Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at
  times. A prolonged period of very cold wind chills continues this
  evening and lasting through the middle of next week.

 

[Weather Will]

Latest DC statement still 6-10; 14 far NW

District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and
Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast
Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Culpeper-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern
Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
115 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 6 and 10 inches, with up to 14 inches
  possible, especially in the far northern and western suburbs of
  Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two
  tenths of an inch.


* WHERE...DC, portions of central, northeast, and northern Maryland,
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway
  50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A
  prolonged period of wind chills in the single digits and teens
  continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next
  week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

 

[weathercoins]

Pretty absurd to look at the current national warning/advisory map.  The entire country is pink 

[EHoffman]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Latest DC statement still 6-10; 14 far NW

District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and
Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast
Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Culpeper-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern
Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
115 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 6 and 10 inches, with up to 14 inches
  possible, especially in the far northern and western suburbs of
  Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two
  tenths of an inch.


* WHERE...DC, portions of central, northeast, and northern Maryland,
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway
  50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A
  prolonged period of wind chills in the single digits and teens
  continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next
  week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

 

And just like that Randy's forecast from early this week is confirmed.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, EHoffman said:

And just like that Randy's forecast from early this week is confirmed.

Yeah Randy's been saying 6 to 10 all week!!!   If we do get 6 to 10 I'm gonna ask Randy for lottery numbers 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest DC statement still 6-10; 14 far NW

District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and
Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast
Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Culpeper-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern
Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
115 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 6 and 10 inches, with up to 14 inches
  possible, especially in the far northern and western suburbs of
  Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two
  tenths of an inch.


* WHERE...DC, portions of central, northeast, and northern Maryland,
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway
  50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A
  prolonged period of wind chills in the single digits and teens
  continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next
  week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

 

They are sticking to their guns

[mitchnick]

Just now, Solution Man said:

They are sticking to their guns

They're a violent bunch.

[stormy]

26 minutes ago, konksw said:

1.8 is a wiggle that could be swung by where banding sets up. 

That is certainly possible but it lost .40" qp over Augusta which is just more of a trend and probably not related to any banding.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

This is a really  interesting read about sleet! https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/incredible-sleet-stories-vol-i/46374

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

They are sticking to their guns

It would be cool if a Met from NWS could tell us why they think NAM is wrong.

[87storms]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

NWS keeping big totals in forecast  for NW zones.

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over
the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow
beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially
south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition
to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold
temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week
with sub-zero wind chills likely at times.

MDZ003>005-502-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-504-250215-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western
Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Eastern Mineral-
115 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 9 and 13 inches, with up to 16 inches
  possible in western Maryland. Ice accumulations up to a tenth of
  an inch, mainly across the northern Shenandoah Valley.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northern
  and northwest Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at
  times. A prolonged period of very cold wind chills continues this
  evening and lasting through the middle of next week.

 

I have no doubt our corridor gets 6–10” before the flip…and probably pretty easily. Every flake will count in this airmass.