Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[benjammin]

Does someone have a qpf map for the GFS and UKMET they can share? Thanks.

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[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Valentine's Day 2007 is the top second analog for 24h. Could this actually not become as intense now? https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2026012412&dt=2007121612&HH=0&map=SYN1

[stormy]

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

        The FV3 RRFS is also going bonkers with the freezing rain.   I *think* it's way, way overdone and favor the sleet bomb idea of the NAM, but this will have to watched closely tomorrow.

I agree with you 100%.   My reasoning is that 925 thermals are too cold until most precip. exits.

[Imgoinhungry]

Valentine's Day 2007 is the top second analog for 24h. Could this actually not become as intense now? https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2026012412&dt=2007121612&HH=0&map=SYN1

Yep. I thought of that storm this morning after all the short range models started showing more sleet/ice.


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[rjvanals]

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m mostly talking to myself when I’m managing expectations like that (lol)

It’ll be a fun storm kind of 1994 like w areas to our north getting the best storm while we get a glacier. As long as I have power Monday morning I’ll be happy since the freezing rain aspect is being underplayed imo 

[clskinsfan]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Problem I'm seeing on all the worst modeling is that the primary is in TN, the models show weak low pressure off the coast, but a refusal of the primary to die and transfer it's energy to the coastal. Instead, the primary survives, pumping in warm air aloft as it slowly moves east, and once it makes to the coast it dumps on ENE and our precip has shut off.

Theres a fine line there. Jump too fast and we get skipped and dryslot. At least out this way. I know you guys to the NE would prefer more coastal involvement though. 

[clskinsfan]

It is a balmy 11.8 degrees here. Hoping the models bust high on their onset temps. But hope is not a strategy as my one of my old bosses used to say.

[MN Transplant]

Disasterclass by the GFS in the past few days.  From a weak 850 low that let the cold hang in, to an 850 low near Clev/Pitt like every other model had.

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

Louisville radar looks really good right now. I am not buying the dry start the meso's are pushing. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Disasterclass by the GFS in the past few days.  From a weak 850 low that let the cold hang in, to an 850 low near Clev/Pitt like every other model had.

 

It's almost like Uccellini knows what he's talking about. It's not like he wrote a book on snowstorms or anything.

[Eskimo Joe]

Starting to see some mPING reports in far southwest Virginia.

[WEATHER53]

Have not looked at any data but Jesus a 30.70 high .  Radar returns show mostly due east movement.  Could the highly disregarded suppression be our friend to prohibit any low from climbing well up into WV.

winds chills below zeo at Frederick from 12 30 am to 10:30 .  Hagerstown peak wc —13  and lots of negatives right around DC.  Low temp here of 8. 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Disasterclass by the GFS in the past few days.  From a weak 850 low that let the cold hang in, to an 850 low near Clev/Pitt like every other model had.

 

 

 

Waited til 24 hours out to fold like a cheap suit.  This thing gets slapped around by the real models so often it’s really not worth looking at.  If it was from another country we’d probably treat it like the JMA.  At any rate, even with the bad 850 low location we can still get a good thump.  Just need it to come in hot and heavy. 

[Wetbulbs88]

I don’t have any problem admitting that this is a huge bummer. There’s no law stating you have to be satisfied with a given result, and there’s no virtue in pretending this is what I wanted. 
 

 We bled slowly from HECS to the best storm in years, only to now find ourselves with a veritable sleetbomb as the mesos slide into range. I don’t see why we would pretend that this is what we wanted. 
 

Hopefully we get ‘em next time. But this is a solid bust in my book. Nothing wrong with admitting that and still enjoying what we get. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Starting to see some mPING reports in far southwest Virginia.

Don’t want to see any pinging lol but I know what you mean 

[Warm Nose]

Here come the online tantrums.

You can choose to be miserable, or you can choose to enjoy whatever you get.

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

28 minutes ago, bncho said:

If the January 6 event last year closed most counties for at least four out of the five school days, I would expect more from this. ESPECIALLY with the sleet and possible freezing rain.

Fauquier County schools will be closed until April.  They close when clouds look mean.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Here come the online tantrums.

You can choose to be miserable, or you can choose to enjoy whatever you get.

Yup. Most interesting storm in years, not just some northern stream 1-3” 6hr storm. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Here come the online tantrums.

You can choose to be miserable, or you can choose to enjoy whatever you get.

Euro hasn’t even run yet.

[feloniousq]

Here come the online tantrums.
You can choose to be miserable, or you can choose to enjoy whatever you get.

Are you just going to post this every 30 minutes like the TWC forecast?


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[TSSN+]

Guys clean up this thread. Take it to banter. 

[Ji]

And you all complain about me lol

[WhiteoutMD]

I am thinking county's along the bay and east might get an ICE storm warning can any mets chime in on this? 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Here come the online tantrums.

You can choose to be miserable, or you can choose to enjoy whatever you get.

Honestly haven't seen too many tantrums yet, mostly people being real about possibilities.   We're getting a winter storm and we're all going to enjoy it.  

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Here come the online tantrums.

You can choose to be miserable, or you can choose to enjoy whatever you get.

“You can choose to be miserable, or you can choose to enjoy whatever you get”

GFS…2026

[AmericanWxFreak]

Good thing the Apple Weather app still shows 20-24” for Ellicott City - I’m sure people won’t use that to further claim how “useless us weather people are” lol

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

13 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I don’t have any problem admitting that this is a huge bummer. There’s no law stating you have to be satisfied with a given result, and there’s no virtue in pretending this is what I wanted. 
 

 We bled slowly from HECS to the best storm in years, only to now find ourselves with a veritable sleetbomb as the mesos slide into range. I don’t see why we would pretend that this is what we wanted. 
 

Hopefully we get ‘em next time. But this is a solid bust in my book. Nothing wrong with admitting that and still enjoying what we get. 

It’s interesting how we frame this.  “We bled”. Nothing actually happened, the atmosphere was always going to do what it was going to do.  If you chose to believe that the computer simulated storms were real then this may seem like a bust, but many wise posters on here said be very wary of this setup and wait til Friday to believe a big snowstorm.  
 

also we have most models showing anywhere from 4-10 inches of snow for dc, then sleet, and maybe frza.  This will likely be high impact winter storm.  Even just 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet will almost verify the NWS forecast amounts. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

I am thinking county's along the bay and east might get an ICE storm warning can any mets chime in on this? 

If there is snow and sleet then ice they usually keep the winter storm warning. Ice storm warnings usually just for freezing rain. 

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Yup. Most interesting storm in years, not just some northern stream 1-3” 6hr storm. 

I just want a storm man.   Not even focusing on big snow accums at this point.  Just want a qpf bomb.  My only concern is some of the dryness

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

I am thinking county's along the bay and east might get an ICE storm warning can any mets chime in on this? 

Thought the blizzard watch was gone.  Good to know.  Not seen very often.