Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[somecallmetim]

I'd be careful trying to extrapolate any positive surprises to the SW at this point, given that part of our problem has been the strength of the primary driving to our west. Their current synoptics and ours tomorrow morning I'd think may not be comparable. And yes, TSSN+ I'm probably wrong and would love it if I am.

[Terpeast]

Sticking with the middle of the road forecast I made earlier, not panicking over the bad CAM runs. 4-8” mix/ice DC metro, 6-10” sleet fest with some zr NW

[MN Transplant]

Hard to tell with 6-hr panels, but the ICON looks like ~15Z changeover and maybe 0.5-0.6" QPF by then.  10:1 snow maps look like a hold from 06z.

 

Edit - if you want consistency, the 10:1 snowfall on the ICON through 18z has been between 5 and 6" for DC for the past 7(!) runs.

[Ellinwood]

Made more significant adjustments in the mountains and pulled back totals around the coast and the DMV region a little. Gonna be interesting to see how quickly things change over to sleet, but we all know that leaning earlier vs later is the way to go 90% of the time.

[MN Transplant]

ICON 10:1 trend.  Slight north bleed, but serious consistency.

[baltosquid]

4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

ICON 10:1 trend.  Slight north bleed, but serious consistency.

Internal ratio on TT has me at 8 so I would abscond. But wish the CAMs would come around. At least, CAMs other than the FV3 lol.

edit: not 8 more like 7. But I am just clinging to 6+ at this point.

[NorthArlington101]

Made more significant adjustments in the mountains and pulled back totals around the coast and the DMV region a little. Gonna be interesting to see how quickly things change over to sleet, but we all know that leaning earlier vs later is the way to go 90% of the time.

Bullish. Hope you are right - though not sure I want to know how much of what you are spitting out is snow vs. sleet! I’ll pretend it’s all snow.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Internal ratio on TT has me at 8 so I would abscond. But wish the CAMs would come around. At least, CAMs other than the FV3 lol.

Same, lol If we don't fall into solid 6-10" territory it's a bust...full stop!

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Sticking with the middle of the road forecast I made earlier, not panicking over the bad CAM runs. 4-8” mix/ice DC metro, 6-10” sleet fest with some zr NW

Prediction for Baltimore?

[paxpatriot]

37 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

That's awful. Nam says we don't see much daytime snow lol

My bar on this thing has always been 10 inches of snow in our neck of the woods. If the NAM is right, this has been quite a bust given what we’ve tracked all week.

[Heisy]

This has that 12/20 feel where the Euro had me at 18" and BWI was 4"+ two days before, only for the Nam to knock sense into everything. I ended up with 6" and then ip/zr. 

I’ve been mentioning 12/20 for 4 days now over on our discord. It’s in the top 5 of analogs as of yesterday.


.

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, konksw said:

How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through?

More phasing/amplification allows the primary low to track further north with a later transfer to the coast- and the developing coastal low is tucked. Earlier runs were less amped/ w flatter flow, a weaker primary with earlier transfer further south and the coastal low tracking ENE off the coast- this setup spares the area from too much warm air moving in aloft and at the surface in the vicinity of the coastal low. The warming is temporary as the colder air comes back in afterwards.

 

 

[RDM]

Seems the warm nose is even more pronounced that last night. 

Would appreciate an explanation from a red tagger or one of our more experienced members how the warm nose at 700 (or 750 - wherever it is) can be so shallow, but project so far out with the uppers and surface remaining cold - especially the surface.  Is this a physics thing with fluid dynamics or what?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

More phasing/amplification allows the primary low to track further north with a later transfer to the coast- and the developing coastal low is tucked. Earlier runs were less amped/ w flatter flow, a weaker primary with earlier transfer further south and the coastal low tracking ENE off the coast- this setup spares the area from too much warm air moving in aloft and at the surface in the vicinity of the coastal low. The warming is temporary as the colder air comes back in afterwards.

 

 

So in other words...just bad luck with the track, smh

[Bob Chill]

Decent virga on radar down this way keeping me entertained for now lol

Forecast start time pushed out to 7-8pm so we'll see how that breaks later. Some areas of TN are overperforming in the snow dept so that's a glimmer of hope but I'm not feeling optimistic about 4" of clean snow anymore. Time will tell. Ice amounts have bumped up in my area as well. I'll keep posting until I lose power and internet lol.

[Ji]

Has 12z rgem run?

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Prediction for Baltimore?

Split the difference since you’re further north/NE. 5-9” perhaps

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Has 12z rgem run?

Didn’t run 

[NorthArlington101]

So in other words...just bad luck with the track, smh

Almost everything that could go wrong with this one has, honestly. It’s a miracle the cold is so cold or we’d’ve been out of this one a couple days ago.

[mikeg0305]

Decent virga on radar down this way keeping me entertained for now lol
Forecast start time pushed out to 7-8pm so we'll see how that breaks later. Some areas of TN are overperforming in the snow dept so that's a glimmer of hope but I'm not feeling optimistic about 4" of clean snow anymore. Time will tell. Ice amounts have bumped up in my area as well. I'll keep posting until I lose power and internet lol.

For those that don’t know…where do you live?

[SnowenOutThere]

Finally made my snowfall slides for my Instagram post. Might as well share them here!

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Almost everything that could go wrong with this one has, honestly. It’s a miracle the cold is so cold or we’d’ve been out of this one a couple days ago.

It would have been a rainstorm if our temps were even in the climo range

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So in other words...just bad luck with the track, smh

And that is largely a function of h5 shortwave interactions. As I have said- say it with me- all our hopes and dreams are determined by random wave interactions and timing.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Almost everything that could go wrong with this one has, honestly. It’s a miracle the cold is so cold or we’d’ve been out of this one a couple days ago.

This is what ninas do...and people wonder why I complain about them. NS rarely plays nice. If we had this same amount of moisture in a niño with this cold we'd be looking at a MECS or more.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said:

For those that don’t know…where do you live?

Smith Mtn Lake/Penhook 

[jayyy]

So, so cold out there. Wild to think this air mass gets bullied out but that’s what a SW tracking to our west does

[NorthArlington101]

This is what ninas do...and people wonder why I complain about them. NS rarely plays nice. If we had this same amount of moisture in a niño with this cold we'd be looking at a MECS or more.

Yep, @WxUSAF was 100% correct earlier in the week when he said a Nina was gonna fight back. Was hard to see every single failure mode teaming up against us but it did. Historic cold is the saving grace. One day our luck will flip, and even if we boom tomorrow, we did still fumble this one a bit.

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Almost everything that could go wrong with this one has, honestly. It’s a miracle the cold is so cold or we’d’ve been out of this one a couple days ago.

I mean the arctic blast could’ve kept it well to our south.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Almost everything that could go wrong with this one has, honestly. It’s a miracle the cold is so cold or we’d’ve been out of this one a couple days ago.

Oh completely. I mentioned it a couple days ago but with a triple phase happening out west it is such an incredible feat that its not a cutter that is even screwing over Chicago and running a 70 degree warm sector across our region. So, it could always have been worse. Our setup we saw on Tuesday has trended worse in every possible way (ofc not for the suppression fear). We lost the PV to the east, had a weaker 50/50 low, lost confluence to a different wave setup in the northeast, had a stronger SW Baja vort, had a second NS vort max appear and phase fully, had the initial NS vort max amplify and move further west. Every. Single. Thing. Went. Wrong. For 3 days of model runs! So, in a way look to this as the best possible outcome considering our new synoptic setup. 

[mikeg0305]

Smith Mtn Lake/Penhook 

My son is at VT (Blacksburg) so similar to you. Thx for all that you do here.

I’m Parkton, fwiw.