Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Rvarookie]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

So you've seen them?

Take it to banter man. Don’t ruin the obs / discussion

[Chris78]

Just now, nj2va said:

Yeah it was a touch better for us.  At this point, I don’t think we’re going to see huge changes but 25-50 miles or 1-2 extra hours before sleet can mean 2-4” more of snow.

100%.

Very subtle changes but as you said a shift of a few hours could make a difference with heavy rates prior to the changeover.

The Nam does worry me. It seems off on its on but I've seen it win sometimes in these set ups. Hopefully not this time lol

 

[wxlvr]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Red line is temperature. Green line is dew point. The solid black line that rises to the top right indicates the freezing level from the ground upward. Precipitation falls when the temperature and dew point line are touching at the bottom of the chart (the ground). Snow falls when the temperature and dew point lines stay to the left of the solid black freezing line. When you see the temperature line make a triangular shape bulge to the right of the freezing line, this indicates melting in that layer. If the raindrop continues to fall and the temperature line moves back to the left of the freezing line, the raindrop will refreeze. If the warm layer is high enough above the ground, the precipitation will be sleet,  but if the triangular bulge happens near the ground, then rain will re-freeze as freezing rain. 

Amazing!  Thank you so much for helping me understand the dynamics of this storm! (not banter).  

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

It’s been a long time since the whole area has been under a WSW

I'm worried about the low water advisory the most. 

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

Wind is absolutely ripping right now.  Gusts to 35 mph.  Gainesville, and that ain't the Florida one.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Cold as a witches titty out 

[yoda]

00z RGEM is late tonight

[EastCoast NPZ]

Remember just a couple days ago when we were sweating whether we were too north and central NC was jackpotted? 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

100%.

Very subtle changes but as you said a shift of a few hours could make a difference with heavy rates prior to the changeover.

The Nam does worry me. It seems off on its on but I've seen it win sometimes in these set ups. Hopefully not this time lol

 

If both NAMs are stubbornly showing that earlier flip than Euro/others tomorrow, I’ll definitely start to take it more seriously.  I also want to check tomorrow morning how NAM has done in the south with the storm.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Remember just a couple days ago when we were sweating whether we were too north and central NC was jackpotted? 

Not me. I didn’t really believe the suppressed scenario and kept saying it would come north. And it did… more than I thought. 

[RedSky]

8 minutes ago, snowfan said:

So you've seen them?

I've dated them

[wxlvr]

2 minutes ago, wxlvr said:

Amazing!  Thank you so much for helping me understand the dynamics of this storm! (not banter).  

From a scientific perspective, about this storm.  I am trying to understand how three days ago people were posting "no temp issues with this storm", only to have the storm morph into snow/sleet/freezing rain storm.  I understand that there are many variables built into the models that we have difficulty understanding their interactions, but what changed to cause us to go from "no temp issues" to an inch or more of non-snow freezing precip.  

[Solution Man]

Cmon @stormtracker let’s do this 

[ChillinIt]

LFGO!!!

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, wxlvr said:

From a scientific perspective, about this storm.  I am trying to understand how three days ago people were posting "no temp issues with this storm", only to have the storm morph into snow/sleet/freezing rain storm.  I understand that there are many variables built into the models that we have difficulty understanding their interactions, but what changed to cause us to go from "no temp issues" to an inch or more of non-snow freezing precip.  

Its complex, but the simple answer is that the storm is phasing much farther west than ideal for an all snow event with no temp issues. It’s still cold though. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

4 minutes ago, wxlvr said:

From a scientific perspective, about this storm.  I am trying to understand how three days ago people were posting "no temp issues with this storm", only to have the storm morph into snow/sleet/freezing rain storm.  I understand that there are many variables built into the models that we have difficulty understanding their interactions, but what changed to cause us to go from "no temp issues" to an inch or more of non-snow freezing precip.  

I would recommend watching some of Fox 5's Mike Thomas's Facebook lives. You will learn a lot!

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Cmon @stormtracker let’s do this 

 Present.   Just gonna do sfc comparisons.  Eyes going crossways at this point and I just wanna lay the fuck down.

[Maestrobjwa]

NAM replacement held serve with other guidance.

[yoda]

00z RGEM finally coming in... ripping at 12z

[stormtracker]

About the same thru 24

[SnowFuturesTrading]

Bring us Home  Randy !

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

About the same thru 24

Isotherms trended north.

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Isotherms trended north.

a smidge, yes, nothing note worthy

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z RGEM finally coming in... ripping at 12z

Looks like .75" QPF before flip DC metro 

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

GFS actually wetter out west so far

[stormtracker]

It's a hold...and just a smidge cooler...nothing noteable

[Solution Man]

Hour 33 is nice

[stormtracker]