Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[balltermen]

3 minutes ago, Nomz said:

No clue how good the RAP is with winter wx, but I like it more than the NAM for severe wx. Gives us 7.7 inches on 10:1 at the end of the model run and coincidentally right before the changeover

It's not good. Especially at this range. I would maybe use it closer in, in conjunction with other models. But weigh it very little and toss if an outlier. 

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

15z RAP is pretty far south with the ice/snow line fwiw. quicker/further south transfer to the coastal. Baltimore has 12" snow depth at hr51 and still quite a bit of storm to go. 

What about NOVA

[WEATHER53]

50 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

I don't know much about the whole process of snowing through the thin warm nose. Is it weenie talk or could we really get meaningful snow through it? If you have any time to explain the reasonableness of it. I hear it pretty much every time we get a mixy event.

It’s a good question what effect it has on snowflakes falling about 3000 feet through 32.7 temps. 

[Wxtrix]

27 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Probably a ratio thing then... lucky fucks up north probably getting 15+:1

we will be getting 15-18:1 ratios here.

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, Wxtrix said:

we will be getting 15-18:1 ratios here.

Colder and no warmth in mid levels give them high ratios with little moisture. 

 

[clskinsfan]

Euro is below freezing until February 7th when it finally hits 35 degrees. 

[pazzo83]

Got down to -21F at MSP, and O'Hare -11F.  Cold.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

Grew up in Columbia all my life - living in Turf Valley now and this will be the first real storm since being here - well see how the extra 100' helps

You are very close to the Clarksville mesonet site. It's almost in your backyard! Link: https://mesonet.umd.edu/station?stid=MDMSNT-01

[Weather Will]

18Z begins...HRRR is running.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, baltosquid said:

Euro AI is colder. Worst frame at 700:

 

   Almost keeps me all snow!!.. almost..  like the trend 12 z gave!!

[MillvilleWx]

33 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

we will be getting 15-18:1 ratios here.

The northern and northwestern crew will likely see 15-20:1 to start and probably continue for several hours until after the time frame between 12-15z. Then it’ll start coming back down, but so long as it doesn’t turn to sleet, ratios will probably be between 10-12:1. I’m hoping for some incredible banding across the region with this one. The FGEN fields are off the charts, sans the NAM parent. I hope the NAM Nest dry bias in these setups at range is the culprit. I’ll take it more seriously tomorrow. The rest of the 12z suite was fantastic imo. Still time to parse details. 

[Eskimo Joe]

WTOP just reported on air of a statewide emergency declaration for Maryland

[konksw]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Statewide emergency declaration for Maryland.

Where do you see that?

[Kmlwx]

Just now, konksw said:

Where do you see that?

He's an emergency manager so I trust him. He may have the info before it hits most outlets.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

Where do you see that?

 

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

He's an emergency manager so I trust him. He may have the info before it hits most outlets.

Heard it on WTOP. Just amended my post to clarify. 

[TSSN+]

Just looked up a forecast in one of the cities in MS under the ice storm warning. Holy crap!

Saturday

Freezing rain and sleet before 4pm, then rain, possibly mixed with sleet between 4pm and 5pm, then freezing rain after 5pm. High near 34. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Saturday Night

Freezing rain. Some thunder is also possible. Steady temperature around 30. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.5 to 0.7 of an inch possible. 

Sunday

Freezing rain before 3pm, then a chance of sleet. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.4 to 0.6 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[yoda]

DC SoE

https://www.wusa9.com/article/weather/severe-weather/dc-state-of-emergency-mayor-muriel-bowser-snow-weather/65-30832e93-82c4-4de9-b0ac-64b1f395389a

 

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s been my contention all week that a flat and fresh very cold 1035 high in a great position just does not get bullied and give it up 

Totally agree.  Usually in similar setups we're worried about the stubborn Candian highs being so stout and dry through the column that it eats away at the northern edge of the approaching system and delays precip onset by hours.  Maybe there's just not enough (any?) downstream blocking to keep the high anchored in the favored position long enough.

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Just looked up a forecast in one of the cities in MS under the ice storm warning. Holy crap!

 

Saturday

Freezing rain and sleet before 4pm, then rain, possibly mixed with sleet between 4pm and 5pm, then freezing rain after 5pm. High near 34. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Saturday Night

Freezing rain. Some thunder is also possible. Steady temperature around 30. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.5 to 0.7 of an inch possible. 

Sunday

Freezing rain before 3pm, then a chance of sleet. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.4 to 0.6 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thunderstorms, except freezing rain? Jeez that sounds like a nightmare.

[IUsedToHateCold]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Just looked up a forecast in one of the cities in MS under the ice storm warning. Holy crap!

 

Saturday

Freezing rain and sleet before 4pm, then rain, possibly mixed with sleet between 4pm and 5pm, then freezing rain after 5pm. High near 34. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Saturday Night

Freezing rain. Some thunder is also possible. Steady temperature around 30. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.5 to 0.7 of an inch possible. 

Sunday

Freezing rain before 3pm, then a chance of sleet. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.4 to 0.6 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Some THUNDER possible? Yikes. Can't imagine thunderstorm-type freezing rain. That will be a total disaster.

[Scraff]

50 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Euro is below freezing until February 7th when it finally hits 35 degrees. 

After being in Alaska last summer, my wife was wondering what life would be like in Alaska during winter. Welp. Next few weeks, we about to find out! Though no negative temps I think, but still…

 

[yoda]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

WTOP just reported on air of a statewide emergency declaration for Maryland

 

18 minutes ago, konksw said:

Where do you see that?

 

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

He's an emergency manager so I trust him. He may have the info before it hits most outlets.

Also here now

https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/gov-wes-moore-declares-state-emergency-maryland-due-winter-storm

 

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
216 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

MDZ021-VAZ048-060>062-064-068-069-075-076-082-083-090-509>522-240330-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.260124T1800Z-260127T0000Z/
Dorchester-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-
Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Charles City-New Kent-James
City-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern
Hanover-Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col.
Heights)-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern
Henrico-Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King
and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
216 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Snow and sleet will
  accumulate Saturday evening and overnight and then change to
  freezing rain during the day Sunday. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations Saturday night into Sunday morning between 4 and 9
  inches and ice accumulations up to three quarters of an inch
  Sunday into Sunday night.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and central, east central,
  north central, and southeast Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Devastating impacts are expected including widespread
  power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could quickly
  become nearly impossible. Due to the increasing wind on Monday,
  additional tree damage and power outages are possible. People
  should prepare for power outages to potentially last for several
  days along with extreme cold.

[MDphotog]

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

After being in Alaska last summer, my wife was wondering what life would be like in Alaska during winter. Welp. Next few weeks, we about to find out! Though no negative temps I think, but still…

 

Depends on where in Alaska you live.  I was a kid/early teen in the Southeast panhandle and winters were not bad at all.  It was cold, but not that bad.  This stuff coming up is much worse that what we got on the coast.

[hstorm]

7 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Some THUNDER possible? Yikes. Can't imagine thunderstorm-type freezing rain. That will be a total disaster.

Although heavy freezing rain is likely preferable to lighter freezing rain because it won't accrete as efficiently on trees, power lines, etc.

[TSSN+]

Just now, hstorm said:

Although heavy freezing rain is likely preferable to lighter freezing rain because it won't accrete as efficiently on trees, power lines, etc.

Depends how cold it is. If under 25 it’s sticking at any rate really. Above 28 ya won’t stick as much 

[Stradivarious]

8 minutes ago, Scraff said:

After being in Alaska last summer, my wife was wondering what life would be like in Alaska during winter. Welp. Next few weeks, we about to find out! Though no negative temps I think, but still…

 

i used to live in Winnipeg, Manitoba… while it will be cold here, Winnipeg, and points northwest into Alaska are in a whole two league levels away from us..if we get to -40 degrees with 50 mph gusts whistling between 20 story buildings…then you will understand.

[Paleocene]

On the long range 18z HRRR, snow enters the region from the SW between 10pm-midnight saturday night.  Not sure how long it will take to saturate the air. 

[Grothar of Herndon]

4 minutes ago, hstorm said:

Although heavy freezing rain is likely preferable to lighter freezing rain because it won't accrete as efficiently on trees, power lines, etc.

If anywhere near that amount of freezing rain it will be devastating  

[Interstate]

can we take the Alaska talk to banter?