January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Does anyone need meat? Good luck. Live pic from the crofton wegmans lol.

 

Organic Fowl looks pretty well stocked.  'Roids for everyone. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Wth went on down there. My brother said his bill has doubled+. New rates or new taxes?

I have some neighbors who had power/electric bills over $700 last bill....the previous years they are $200-$300.   Kwh went from 7-8 cents to 12-13. 

[Scraff]

If you have never seen this one, 100% recommend! This sums up the DMV to perfection. 
 

 

[Mrs.J]

A photo from back on Jan 24th 2016 just after clearing our driveway. 

[winter_warlock]

[87storms]

Ok after analyzing the 6z euro further it looks like this is approx how much precip falls before the flip… https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2026012406&fh=39

If so, then that would actually be a legitimate pre-sleet thump imby. Surface temps in the mid teens as well.

[ThePhotoGuy]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

My god the BGE bills after this cold period…

My last bill wasn't too bad. I think just $50 more compared to some really high bills people are getting. We are on oil heat which helps offset BGE bill but already had too fill up twice this winter. 

[ThePhotoGuy]

40 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Does anyone need meat? Good luck. Live pic from the crofton wegmans lol.

 

The grocery store runs have been crazy this week. Seemed to have started Tuesday and just never let up all week. The 2 local gas stations yesterday even had lines too. Businesses have made some money this week!

[aldie 22]

You know...f some of you guys with your constant negative interpretations of every fucking model run. Give it a rest at some point 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

You know...f some of you guys with your constant negative interpretations of every fucking model run. Give it a rest at some point 

This is a negative post

[Hank Scorpio]

Our little baby boy was born last night! Now I gotta figure out how we get home. They're talking about a 10am discharge time tomorrow, depending on what the storm does. But it also sounds like they have some apprehension about sending a new baby into the middle of a snowstorm, so it may just mean an extra day at the hospital for us. 

Anyone love driving in the snow feel like breaking us outta here tomorrow? 

[snowfan]

8 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

You know...f some of you guys with your constant negative interpretations of every fucking model run. Give it a rest at some point 

I attribute it to scar tissue from prior fails 

[snowfan]

Feel like most south of 50/66 will be pinging by this time tomorrow. Hope that’s wrong.

[clueless]

Whatever snow falls is going to turn into a glacier.  Not gonna stress about totals.  

[H2O]

Quick check of things and models didn’t change much. I’ll still go sleet earlier than most but hoping for 6” snow first. 
 

It’s whatever at this point. Gonna storm and then cement. 
 

Good luck to all and just enjoy what you get over what you didn’t. 

[mappy]

Sorry do we really think the NAM is right? 

[mdhokie]

Remember when everyone was saying KU had a drinking problem after he said "Congrats Chicago"? 

My kids have been coming home from school asking about the 2-3ft blizzard we are about to get. "But my friend showed me her apple weather app!" "This other kid follows some facbook site called Jays Wintery Mix!"

Told them to expect 4-6" of some type of frozen stuff. After the last couple years I've learned to set the bar low.

[winter_warlock]

[mdhokie]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Sorry do we really think the NAM is right? 

PSU has been saying for a couple days it has shown the way we can fail solution. The low transfers too North and floods the uppers with warmth. 

[BlizzardNole]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have some neighbors who had power/electric bills over $700 last bill....the previous years they are $200-$300.   Kwh went from 7-8 cents to 12-13. 

We are moving from a house with natural gas heat and cheap Potomac Ed electric to one with heat pump only and higher SMECO rates.  Winter bills will be ugly!

We're doing a pre-final walk-through today - we'll get to see how that heat pump handles 10 F

[konksw]

2 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

PSU has been saying for a couple days it has shown the way we can fail solution. The low transfers too North and floods the uppers with warmth. 

I could show other ways for it to fail with a crayon. But that doesn’t mean they’re right. 

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sorry do we really think the NAM is right? 

I want to move this panel southeast by 75-100 miles:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2026012412&fh=30
I’d roll with the euro for the sake of cad, but the problem is clearly the track/strength of this low. Nam just slingshots that residual Baja low into West Virginia. Can see it on the 500 loop.

Kinda surprising that we couldn’t have a more entrenched hp in place given today’s Siberia style weather. Guess it’s a nao thing. Still generally like the idea of 4-6” minimum for most, which is enough to cover grass blades (a crucial rubric in grading snowstorms).

 

[loshjott]

@Hank Scorpio Congrats! For some reason I can’t reply to individual posts. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

We are moving from a house with natural gas heat and cheap Potomac Ed electric to one with heat pump only and higher SMECO rates.  Winter bills will be ugly!

We're doing a pre-final walk-through today - we'll get to see how that heat pump handles 10 F

My neighbor has a heat pump but it is one of the better ones were it is deep in the ground.  If it is the better kind of heat pump you may not need a ton of electricity.   Gas has been better for years and years as to cost. 

 

My summer bills are usually higher than winter bills but we like to keep it 68ish in the summer. 

[somecallmetim]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sorry do we really think the NAM is right? 

My completely armchair sense is that you can't trust it with precip amounts/intensity/placement, but it usually gets the mid-level warming right more often than not. We then spend lots of time coming up why it can't be right, will be later changeover, etc, and then it happens even earlier than predicted. Hopefully that's not the case this time, but I'm expecting to see a changeover around sunrise here in Alexandria, and will be pleasantly surprised if goes past that. I plan to get out and jebwalk at 5am while i can.

[Mrs.J]

41 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Our little baby boy was born last night! Now I gotta figure out how we get home. They're talking about a 10am discharge time tomorrow, depending on what the storm does. But it also sounds like they have some apprehension about sending a new baby into the middle of a snowstorm, so it may just mean an extra day at the hospital for us. 

Anyone love driving in the snow feel like breaking us outta here tomorrow? 

Congratulations!!

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

PSU has been saying for a couple days it has shown the way we can fail solution. The low transfers too North and floods the uppers with warmth. 

I know it’s a possibility. But does it happens?? I hope not haha

[clueless]

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sorry do we really think the NAM is right? 

It’s being laid out to pasture. So who knows? 

[mappy]

Just now, clueless said:

It’s being laid out to pasture. So who knows? 

I’m ignoring it haha 

[MN Transplant]

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sorry do we really think the NAM is right? 

It isn't necessarily whether the NAM is correct, it is that we'd hope to be narrowing the goalposts by this period.  I wanted to see the NAM come back to the fold, not double down.