January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!

[SnowenOutThere]

30 minutes ago, H2O said:

Had my crashout and subsequent mental break the past two days I'm locked in and ready to sleet now! Only conditional is that I cannot for the life of me have a dry slot as that is unequivocal existence that God exists and is evil. 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

I know its unavoidable and unfair, but shit like this is exactly why the public makes "weathermen" the butt of so many jokes and thinks they over-hype the weather. These models really do seem to have gotten worse than they used to be. The public is out there right now being told to expect a foot of snow based on the NWS forecast... and the doubters and mockers are laughing saying that isn't going to happen and they're crazy... and sadly I now expect them to be right when we wake up Sunday morning

Meanwhile I’m having to argue with people who expect 1+ because Apple Weather is the worst app ever created. It feels like a psyop to destroy trust in meteorology.

[paulythegun]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

So how many accidents are we predicting on the roads Monday? Cause people will be idiots and try and drive on the ice rink roads. 

I've got one of those Segway e-scooters. I plan to take it out late Sunday with tons of padding (and a helmet) and skid around some parking lots. Done it before, it's the greatest thing ever. Falling down doesn't hurt either. 

[konksw]

Winter Storm Warning for DC. 7-14”

[paulythegun]

42 minutes ago, mappy said:

Moving this to banter

NWS doesn’t need to label it snow and sleet because sleet counts as snow. 

SLEETY SAYS "Don't forget to include sleet!"

[mappy]

BCPS emailed to say they are sending devices home with kids today in the event they are out of school for 4 days next week. Kids get 3 actual snow days before virtual learning kicks in. 

[catoctin wx]

12 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

I know its unavoidable and unfair, but shit like this is exactly why the public makes "weathermen" the butt of so many jokes and thinks they over-hype the weather. These models really do seem to have gotten worse than they used to be. The public is out there right now being told to expect a foot of snow based on the NWS forecast... and the doubters and mockers are laughing saying that isn't going to happen and they're crazy... and sadly I now expect them to be right when we wake up Sunday morning

My own brother in law texted me this morning to say "Why do none of you meteorologist have any clue how much snow is coming? I'm seeing 4 inches and I'm seeing 20+"

I think he is only half joking, but that's certainly how the general public digests the information out there right now.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

BCPS emailed to say they are sending devices home with kids today in the event they are out of school for 4 days next week. Kids get 3 actual snow days before virtual learning kicks in. 

Bit of a culture shock for me man. 6-10 of snow and sleet Sunday AM would have an outside shot of getting us out of Monday. 

[North Balti Zen]

Find you someone who loves you as much as this board loves obsessing over the worst possible outcome from any one model in a particular suite ahead of a winter event no matter how unreliable that model is at range...

[Nomz]

Are ratios solely based on surface temps, assuming there isn’t an above freezing warm nose? 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Are ratios solely based on surface temps, assuming there isn’t an above freezing warm nose? 

Per NWS: Some of the variables that come into play include...

• Depth of the warm layer from the surface into the snow producing cloud. The warmer it is (closer to freezing), the lower the ratio will be.
• Amount of ice in the snow producing cloud. If there is more super cooled water droplets in the cloud, snow ratios will be lower. If there is a higher amount of ice crystals, snow ratios will be higher.
• If its windy, snowflakes can fracture, losing their "lacy" structure and leading to lower accumulations (lower snow ratios).
• Deep cold, in general, promotes higher snow ratios.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Are ratios solely based on surface temps, assuming there isn’t an above freezing warm nose? 

Much more complicated than that. Ratios use temps in the entire column, lift, omega, and all kinds of details. Snow growth and ratios are affected by many factors other than surface temps 

[wxdude64]

39 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Good lord. 

02/14/2007 says-

 

[TowsonWeather]

23 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

I know its unavoidable and unfair, but shit like this is exactly why the public makes "weathermen" the butt of so many jokes and thinks they over-hype the weather. These models really do seem to have gotten worse than they used to be. The public is out there right now being told to expect a foot of snow based on the NWS forecast... and the doubters and mockers are laughing saying that isn't going to happen and they're crazy... and sadly I now expect them to be right when we wake up Sunday morning

The models are dramatically better than they used to be. They are SO good that people now get pissed off and frustrated/disappointed when the storm they've been tracking for over a WEEK gives them just several inches and a sleet bomb instead of a foot or more. You know how remarkable it is that they can do this? The difference is, 15 years ago you wouldn't even KNOW there was a potential storm until a few days beforehand, and the amount of granular data like snow maps and soundings and whatnot simply wasn't widely available to you or me or anyone not a meteorologist.

Any perception that the models are worse somehow is just that: perception. It's in your head. They are verifiably, objectively, and irrefutably dramatically better than they were even a relatively short time ago.

[RickinBaltimore]

UMBC, UB have announced they are closed Monday. Ok Coppin, you're up. 

[caviman2201]

13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Find you someone who loves you as much as this board loves obsessing over the worst possible outcome from any one model in a particular suite ahead of a winter event no matter how unreliable that model is at range...

at least I meltdown in banter  

[wxdude64]

12 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Bit of a culture shock for me man. 6-10 of snow and sleet Sunday AM would have an outside shot of getting us out of Monday. 

So true, many, many days I loaded up onto the bus as the snow was falling and roads had been covered for a couple hours. Can't remember the year (but I was in elementary, so pre 1976) and the older teens got off the bus and helped the driver put the chains on the bus, going TO school. Our route picked everyone up in neighborhood and dropped the youngsters off at elementary before taking HS kids on to school. That is a no-no nowadays, as is the fact that 90% of the time the last stop or two STOOD in the isle because the seats were full. 

[clskinsfan]

I dont know that I have ever seen this much of the country covered by a WSW at the same time before. Nuts.

[wxdude64]

LOL, as I put up the last post church sent out text, no services Sunday. 

[Paleocene]

18 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Find you someone who loves you as much as this board loves obsessing over the worst possible outcome from any one model in a particular suite ahead of a winter event no matter how unreliable that model is at range...

This. Lord is it so bad sometimes. 

[Interstate]

I wish NE had home field advantage in the playoffs... That would have been a fun game to watch.

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

We’re trying! Just understand other than Andy, who is retired, the rest of us have day jobs haha so we can’t be present all the time. But thank you for saying thanks! 

Sorry that you had to clean up a spill from me, but I wasn't wrong. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Sorry that you had to clean up a spill from me, but I wasn't wrong. 

Oh friend the posts I hide that I agree with are in the thousands 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

When does the GFS fold like a cheap suit and show 4 inches for dc? 18z or 0z?

[pazzo83]

50 minutes ago, mappy said:

BCPS emailed to say they are sending devices home with kids today in the event they are out of school for 4 days next week. Kids get 3 actual snow days before virtual learning kicks in. 

I wouldn't be surprised if DCPS is like a 2 hr delay on Tuesday and that's it (Monday is a teacher work day)

[North Balti Zen]

32 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

at least I meltdown in banter  

My comment , fwiw, was aimed at the main thread freakouts…freakouts in here are acceptable lol 

[H2O]

I doubt Fx Co go at all next week with only 3 days and then 2 teacher workdays

 

[EHoffman]

1 hour ago, paulythegun said:

SLEETY SAYS "Don't forget to include sleet!"

Maybe I'll get...just a little rimey.

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:

Anyone know why Apple weather is so different than NWS forecasts?   I don't use it but my wife does, and here's what hers shows this morning for Leesburg area for Sunday:

 

 

Umm.. what?   24" of snow?  Only 70% max chance of precip?   Totally different than legit forecasts.

Only thing I can figure is that the app doesn't have the ability to account for wintry mix / sleet, so it just does some kind of "snow equivalent" or something (?).   No clue why chance of precip is only 70%.

The problem is that when Leesburg doesn’t get 2’, people won’t just stop trusting Apple’s weather forecasts, they’ll also conflate it with “the weather man”.

[ErinInTheSky]

57 minutes ago, mappy said:

BCPS emailed to say they are sending devices home with kids today in the event they are out of school for 4 days next week. Kids get 3 actual snow days before virtual learning kicks in. 

I'm really wondering about MCPS right now. Trying to make a decision of if I'm going to travel next week, but I'll only do it if they shut down school for the week. The potential for 10+" of snow and 3" of sleet make me think its a possibility.