baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 RRFS looks a lot like the NAM, but better precip wise a bit. Still want to avoid a look like this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 RGEM tons colder than the NAM heading into the event. That's all I'm going to raje away from it. No use even looking at precip panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Here’s the NAMs replacement. It says calm down my predecessor smoked too much crack. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 ICON clearly has the same dual precip swath structure as the NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 RGEM tons colder than the NAM heading into the event. That's all I'm going to raje away from it. No use even looking at precip panels. Lotta precip to our SW and cold thru 48. Only thing we should be taking away from RGEM. Fools errand using that model after 48 for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Lol at worrying about the nam at this range. That model almost trends towards the globals near gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 You guys put way too much stock in the NAM when it’s right and when it’s wrong. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Updated LWX discussion tl;dr all systems go. Forecast stabilizing, bigly snow, some crust, watching bigly ice for southern zones. Freaking cold Biggest, best, most beautiful snow storm we've ever seen? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Here’s the NAMs replacement. It says calm down my predecessor smoked too much crack. Of course, it also does this. I don't buy it - its thermals seem rather suspect, but FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: This is my worry as well. I think the bigger issue that just hasnt stopped going the wrong way for two days at this point is that we cannot for the life of us buy back any of the confluence we lost at the 0z Wednesday runs. If we are relying on solely a less developed wave without more confluence then we are subsequently relying on a far less powerful wave and hoping the GFS is fully right. I think that is what is so devastating to me from a what could've been perspective. If we had the confluence we were modeled to a couple days ago we wouldn't care too much about an overamped storm because it would've been a HECS before we flip. Nina MECS for us are really rare for a reason. Northern stream just so rarely plays nice. This is still going to be a good or great storm though! Still probably top tier for a Nina. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This is fun and tragic and fun at the same time. We are at a moment where we are hoping the GFS is right. I love you guys. Prepping for the GFS... 10 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The most important question at this point is whether to stay up all night Saturday or go to bed early and wake up at 4am to dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, H2O said: You guys put way too much stock in the NAM when it’s right and when it’s wrong. I wish it was the last model to run so no one would even look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I wish it was the last model to run so no one would even look at it. Or better yet.. retire… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 why are we looking at anything the 12k NAM has to say past 48 hrs? how many times do we have to learn this? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nina MECS for us are really rare for a reason. Northern stream just so rarely plays nice. This is still going to be a good or great storm though! Still probably top tier for a Nina. IIRC don Sutherland posted in here in that past that 4 out of the 5 tops five La Nina snowfalls at BWI were in January, and were all under 10" of snow. The lone exception was the Blizzard of 1996. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The RRFS & the 3k map the 700mb level (seemingly our warm level) cold out similarly and it's deeper/more impressive than the 12k. I'm willing to toss the 12k flipping us quite so fast on those merits. Really need the typical gametime WAA-juicy trend to start hitting some of these higher end forecast numbers, though. Still like 5" as a floor, I hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8”+ before any mix ain’t bad for the icon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Here’s the NAMs replacement. It says calm down my predecessor smoked too much crack. BAM posted RRFS but I guess using the model’s internally calculated SLR? Actually adds a little snow above this plot, especially for southern 3/4s of the region by my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: IIRC don Sutherland posted in here in that past that 4 out of the 5 tops five La Nina snowfalls at BWI were in January, and were all under 10" of snow. The lone exception was the Blizzard of 1996. ENSO patterns seem kinda useless at such short range. They give you an idea of what will happen months out, but all that matters in the moment is what's actually happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: This is my worry as well. I think the bigger issue that just hasnt stopped going the wrong way for two days at this point is that we cannot for the life of us buy back any of the confluence we lost at the 0z Wednesday runs. If we are relying on solely a less developed wave without more confluence then we are subsequently relying on a far less powerful wave and hoping the GFS is fully right. I think that is what is so devastating to me from a what could've been perspective. If we had the confluence we were modeled to a couple days ago we wouldn't care too much about an overamped storm because it would've been a HECS before we flip. I feel like confluence is one of those things that never trends stronger going into gametime. Maybe it's just the position we usually watch from, but I feel like we're always watching it weaken. Or maybe I'm totally crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 29 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I would laugh if we only ended up with 3-5”. The public meltdowns would be quite something . Edit: and I would never spend this many hours and days following models again until only 2-3 days out You mean like these convos going on back on Tuesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 ICON and RGEM both seem pretty similar to their 12z runs, at least as to final outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Rgem is solid 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 WBAL fwiw 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like a consensus for 6" - 10" from I-70 to I-66 with some sleet. 10"+ up into PA. The biggest storm in over a decade for many. Sold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Come on GFS, lift up the mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, mappy said: WBAL fwiw That’s my ceiling for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Rgem is solid It is also a QPF nuke (in my experience, it generally overdoes precip). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Rgem is solid It'll do at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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