DDweatherman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event. My oldest is exactly 6 and ALSO hasn’t seen the same. Good looking map, we’re excited for this one. New sled is on the way. 18z suite looked a bit better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The good thing about this storm is its moving in a strait line which means it should be a very extrapolatable setup. If its warmer/colder aloft than expected over the ms valley, its a pretty safe bet the same thing will happen downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: You know what's really interesting... The Euro-AIFS and AIGFS are really similar. Like scarily so. Interesting good or interesting bad? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 43 minutes ago, bncho said: Snow maps look a decent amount worse than 12z, unless you live far NW 9 inches of snow in Baltimore county .. I'll take it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 14 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event. OMG..not in the dreaded gray. We've arrived people. Honestly, weenie blinders off, this would be what I would go with rn. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Interesting good or interesting bad? Lol Verbatim? Likely bad (ie. Mixy). But it's more just an observation in general. The OpEuro mirrors it's companion AIFS fairly closely. The GFS... uh... not so much. That may mean something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 43 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO Can I get a comparison of the the 12ZA OPF to this please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: You know what's really interesting... The Euro-AIFS and AIGFS are really similar. Like scarily so. It actually makes sense. the ai models are just glorified analogue forecast. the both use advanced ML techniques to train on a enormous data sets. Both models are probably trained on more or less the same data and probably use similar techniques Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Noice!! Winter storm Fern on the Weather Channel…looking pretty sweet! I mean I’m buying if they sellin. 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, bncho said: You're quite bullish! What is your reasoning for this forecast? Mostly good ratios and strong cold air that we haven't seen ahead of a storm like this in quite some time. Sorry for being vague but I've never been one to write it all out since I'm usually too tired or burned out from work to write it. 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Can I get a comparison of the the 12ZA OPF to this please? WB 18Z to 12Z EURO for comparison: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Btw NWS not backing down with their snowfall maps 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 WB 21Z NBM 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z to 12Z EURO for comparison: Actually, really, really close to these old eyes. Generally speaking, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 40 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: I'd call that a slight step towards the GFS. Which most of us should be happy with stopping the trend. Not really seeing it myself. What you see as a slight step I see as slight run to run noise. The snowfall maps are worse other than places NW of I-95, whether you choose to use the 10:1 or Kuchera. Not a massive difference but this run is not a move towards the GFS in a sensible weather context, and that's all that matters at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Btw NWS not backing down with their snowfall maps As mentioned previously, those totals do include sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not really seeing it myself. What you see as a slight step I see as slight run to run noise. The snowfall maps are worse other than places NW of I-95, whether you choose to use the 10:1 or Kuchera. Not a massive difference but this run is not a move towards the GFS in a sensible weather context, and that's all that matters at this point. I think the 18Z EURO AI compared to 12Z tried to transfer to the coast sooner....as a result there there was a tick SE with the snow. Whether noise or trend TBD. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this: This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSF Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: As mentioned previously, those totals do include sleet. Also, the map used to be valid to 7 AM Sunday and now it's 7 PM Sunday, so I think it's got some backing off baked into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 21 minutes ago, Nomz said: Apple weather in DC finally dropped from 20-24" to 14-17". Still much too high, but they're getting there. Apple Weather is like if Joe Bastardi were a weather app. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this: This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. Plus it's the shallowest of warm layers (something that heavy rates can perhaps overcome). Either way, it's hard to imagine that being ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Soundings like this give me hope that the snow output in my hood is under done. Not sure how this is anything other than snow 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this: This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. Yeah the Euro is clearly fucked up wrt zr vs. sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this: This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. That would be welcome news for S VA if its mostly sleet instead of zr. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this: This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. thank god - I don't need to be out of power for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Soundings like this give me hope that the snow output in my hood is under done. Not sure how this is anything other than snow Careful. Vertical resolution on TT Euro maps is limited to the standard levels. Devil is in the details: 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Soundings like this give me hope that the snow output in my hood is under done. Not sure how this is anything other than snow +1. To your point, it looks like in this sounding it just barely crosses over the freezing mark, and is really just a sliver around 700mb. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Best you can reasonably hope for is to get stuck in a melting-enhanced band embedded in some intense frontogenesis and really crank for a couple of hours before changeover. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Btw NWS not backing down with their snowfall maps I genuinely don't understand what Blacksburg is thinking. My point and click adds up to 8-14", more than any model except the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: He’s a meteorologist he’s backing up his own work as a professional Okay, I was not aware and I was only going off the model runs as they were not showing those totals anymore in the DCA, Baltimore areas. If not yet then when new data from the Plane flights etc., samples may show different outcomes of the snow/sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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