January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

You're quite bullish! What is your reasoning for this forecast?

[DDweatherman]

6 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

My oldest is exactly 6 and ALSO hasn’t seen the same. Good looking map, we’re excited for this one. New sled is on the way. 18z suite looked a bit better. 

[Amped]

The good thing about this storm is its moving in a strait line which means it should be a very extrapolatable setup. If its warmer/colder aloft than expected over the ms valley, its a pretty safe bet the same thing will happen downstream.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

You know what's really interesting... The Euro-AIFS and AIGFS are really similar. Like scarily so.

Interesting good or interesting bad? Lol

[winter_warlock]

43 minutes ago, bncho said:

Snow maps look a decent amount worse than 12z, unless you live far NW

9 inches of snow  in Baltimore county .. I'll take it!!

[stormtracker]

14 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

OMG..not in the dreaded gray.   We've arrived people.

Honestly, weenie blinders off, this would be what I would go with rn.

[wxmeddler]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Interesting good or interesting bad? Lol

Verbatim? Likely bad (ie. Mixy). But it's more just an observation in general.

The OpEuro mirrors it's companion AIFS fairly closely. The GFS... uh... not so much. That may mean something.

[WhiteoutMD]

43 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO

Can I get a comparison of the the 12ZA OPF to this please?

[MDScienceTeacher]

10 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

You know what's really interesting... The Euro-AIFS and AIGFS are really similar. Like scarily so.

It actually makes sense.  the ai models are just glorified analogue forecast.  the both use advanced ML techniques to train on a enormous data sets.  Both models are probably trained on more or less the same data and probably use similar techniques

[Scraff]

Noice!! Winter storm Fern on the Weather Channel…looking pretty sweet! I mean I’m buying if they sellin. 

[Ellinwood]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

You're quite bullish! What is your reasoning for this forecast?

Mostly good ratios and strong cold air that we haven't seen ahead of a storm like this in quite some time. Sorry for being vague but I've never been one to write it all out since I'm usually too tired or burned out from work to write it.

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Can I get a comparison of the the 12ZA OPF to this please?

WB 18Z to 12Z EURO for comparison:

[SnowenOutThere]

Btw NWS not backing down with their snowfall maps

[Weather Will]

WB 21Z NBM

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z to 12Z EURO for comparison:

Actually, really, really close to these old eyes. Generally speaking, of course. 

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

I'd call that a slight step towards the GFS. Which most of us should be happy with stopping the trend.

Not really seeing it myself. What you see as a slight step I see as slight run to run noise.

The snowfall maps are worse other than places NW of I-95, whether you choose to use the 10:1 or Kuchera. Not a massive difference but this run is not a move towards the GFS in a sensible weather context, and that's all that matters at this point.

 

 

 

[Warm Nose]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Btw NWS not backing down with their snowfall maps

As mentioned previously, those totals do include sleet.

[Weather Will]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not really seeing it myself. What you see as a slight step I see as slight run to run noise.

The snowfall maps are worse other than places NW of I-95, whether you choose to use the 10:1 or Kuchera. Not a massive difference but this run is not a move towards the GFS in a sensible weather context, and that's all that matters at this point.

 

 

 

I think the 18Z EURO AI compared to 12Z  tried to transfer to the coast sooner....as a result there there was a tick SE with the snow.  Whether noise or trend TBD.

[Bob Chill]

18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this:

 

This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. 

[DSF]

2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

As mentioned previously, those totals do include sleet.

Also, the map used to be valid to 7 AM Sunday and now it's 7 PM Sunday, so I think it's got some backing off baked into it.

[Amped]

21 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Apple weather in DC finally dropped from 20-24" to 14-17". Still much too high, but they're getting there.

Apple Weather is like if Joe Bastardi were a weather app.

[mob1]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this:

 

This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. 

Plus it's the shallowest of warm layers (something that heavy rates can perhaps overcome). Either way, it's hard to imagine that being ZR. 

[Bob Chill]

Soundings like this give me hope that the snow output in my hood is under done. Not sure how this is anything other than snow 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this:

 

This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. 

Yeah the Euro is clearly fucked up wrt zr vs. sleet.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this:

 

This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. 

That would be welcome news for S VA if its mostly sleet instead of zr. 

[pazzo83]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this:

 

This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. 

thank god - I don't need to be out of power for days.

[csnavywx]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Soundings like this give me hope that the snow output in my hood is under done. Not sure how this is anything other than snow 

Careful. Vertical resolution on TT Euro maps is limited to the standard levels.

Devil is in the details:

[hsq]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Soundings like this give me hope that the snow output in my hood is under done. Not sure how this is anything other than snow 

+1. To your point, it looks like in this sounding it just barely crosses over the freezing mark, and is really just a sliver around 700mb. Wow. 

[csnavywx]

Best you can reasonably hope for is to get stuck in a melting-enhanced band embedded in some intense frontogenesis and really crank for a couple of hours before changeover.

[Ephesians2]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Btw NWS not backing down with their snowfall maps

I genuinely don't understand what Blacksburg is thinking. My point and click adds up to 8-14", more than any model except the GFS