January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[baltosquid]

RRFS looks a lot like the NAM, but better precip wise a bit. Still want to avoid a look like this though.

[clskinsfan]

RGEM tons colder than the NAM heading into the event. That's all I'm going to raje away from it. No use even looking at precip panels. 

[TSSN+]

Here’s the NAMs replacement. It says calm down my predecessor smoked too much crack. 
 

[SnowenOutThere]

ICON clearly has the same dual precip swath structure as the NAM/GFS

[jayyy]

RGEM tons colder than the NAM heading into the event. That's all I'm going to raje away from it. No use even looking at precip panels. 

Lotta precip to our SW and cold thru 48. Only thing we should be taking away from RGEM. Fools errand using that model after 48 for sure

[87storms]

Lol at worrying about the nam at this range. That model almost trends towards the globals near gametime.

[H2O]

You guys put way too much stock in the NAM when it’s right and when it’s wrong. 

[mdhokie]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Updated LWX discussion 

tl;dr

all systems go. Forecast stabilizing, bigly snow, some crust, watching bigly ice for southern zones. Freaking cold

Biggest, best, most beautiful snow storm we've ever seen? 

[StormyClearweather]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Here’s the NAMs replacement. It says calm down my predecessor smoked too much crack. 
 

Of course, it also does this. I don't buy it - its thermals seem rather suspect, but FWIW. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

This is my worry as well. I think the bigger issue that just hasnt stopped going the wrong way for two days at this point is that we cannot for the life of us buy back any of the confluence we lost at the 0z Wednesday runs. If we are relying on solely a less developed wave without more confluence then we are subsequently relying on a far less powerful wave and hoping the GFS is fully right. I think that is what is so devastating to me from a what could've been perspective. If we had the confluence we were modeled to a couple days ago we wouldn't care too much about an overamped storm because it would've been a HECS before we flip. 

Nina MECS for us are really rare for a reason. Northern stream just so rarely plays nice. This is still going to be a good or great storm though! Still probably top tier for a Nina.

[stormtracker]

This is fun and tragic and fun at the same time.   We are at a moment where we are hoping the GFS is right.

I love you guys.    Prepping for the GFS...

[87storms]

The most important question at this point is whether to stay up all night Saturday or go to bed early and wake up at 4am to dendrites.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

You guys put way too much stock in the NAM when it’s right and when it’s wrong. 

I wish it was the last model to run so no one would even look at it. 

[jayyy]

I wish it was the last model to run so no one would even look at it. 

Or better yet.. retire…

[TSG]

 

why are we looking at anything the 12k NAM has to say past 48 hrs? how many times do we have to learn this?

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nina MECS for us are really rare for a reason. Northern stream just so rarely plays nice. This is still going to be a good or great storm though! Still probably top tier for a Nina.

IIRC don Sutherland posted in here in that past that 4 out of the 5 tops five La Nina snowfalls at BWI were in January, and were all under 10" of snow. The lone exception was the Blizzard of 1996.

[NorthArlington101]

The RRFS & the 3k map the 700mb level (seemingly our warm level) cold out similarly and it's deeper/more impressive than the 12k. I'm willing to toss the 12k flipping us quite so fast on those merits. Really need the typical gametime WAA-juicy trend to start hitting some of these higher end forecast numbers, though. Still like 5" as a floor, I hope.

[TSSN+]

8”+ before any mix ain’t bad for the icon 

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Here’s the NAMs replacement. It says calm down my predecessor smoked too much crack. 
 

BAM posted RRFS but I guess using the model’s internally calculated SLR? Actually adds a little snow above this plot, especially for southern 3/4s of the region by my eye.

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IIRC don Sutherland posted in here in that past that 4 out of the 5 tops five La Nina snowfalls at BWI were in January, and were all under 10" of snow. The lone exception was the Blizzard of 1996.

ENSO patterns seem kinda useless at such short range. They give you an idea of what will happen months out, but all that matters in the moment is what's actually happening. 

[NorthArlington101]

13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

This is my worry as well. I think the bigger issue that just hasnt stopped going the wrong way for two days at this point is that we cannot for the life of us buy back any of the confluence we lost at the 0z Wednesday runs. If we are relying on solely a less developed wave without more confluence then we are subsequently relying on a far less powerful wave and hoping the GFS is fully right. I think that is what is so devastating to me from a what could've been perspective. If we had the confluence we were modeled to a couple days ago we wouldn't care too much about an overamped storm because it would've been a HECS before we flip. 

I feel like confluence is one of those things that never trends stronger going into gametime. Maybe it's just the position we usually watch from, but I feel like we're always watching it weaken. Or maybe I'm totally crazy.

[wxdude64]

29 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I would laugh if we only ended up with 3-5”. The public meltdowns would be quite something .

Edit: and I would never spend this many hours and days following models again until only 2-3 days out

You mean like these convos going on back on Tuesday?

[hstorm]

ICON and RGEM both seem pretty similar to their 12z runs, at least as to final outcomes.

[TSSN+]

Rgem is solid

[mappy]

WBAL fwiw 

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like a consensus for 6" - 10" from I-70 to I-66 with some sleet. 10"+ up into PA. The biggest storm in over a decade for many. Sold.

[jayyy]

Come on GFS, lift up the mood

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, mappy said:

WBAL fwiw 

That’s my ceiling for the area.

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Rgem is solid

 

It is also a QPF nuke (in my experience, it generally overdoes precip).

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Rgem is solid

It'll do at this point.