January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah that's not good...man I just don't wanna lose a warning level snowfall with this at the last minute. 6-10" bare minimum

I dont think you have to worry about that. I think 6+ is a lock for everyone. The cold with this is legit. Gonna take some time to scour it out. 

[WxUSAF]

Interpolating @stormtrackermaps, maybe snow until 21-22z Sunday? I’d take that for sure.

[WhiteoutMD]

Lets get that coastal going at 78  

[stormtracker]

Looks like it's done 6z

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looks like it's done 6z

Looooooooong duration. Now that that is locked in, we work on thermals. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Interpolating @stormtrackermaps, maybe snow until 21-22z Sunday? I’d take that for sure.

yea def colder than the AI--even parts of loudoun is still snow till 0z

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We get screwed by the transfer from the primary to the coastal. It causes a lull/minimum in precip. We've seen this happen many times in the past. 

Yep. We need it to jump at the Carolina coast or we are toast on the coastal part. It's becoming all about the thump at this point. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Interpolating @stormtrackermaps, maybe snow until 21-22z Sunday? I’d take that for sure.

If we can make it past 18z with snow, I'd be ecstatic. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Ji said:

yea def colder than the AI--even parts of loudoun is still snow till 0z

BWI does better than DCA? Maybe one gets double digits and the other doesn't?

[balltermen]

we really need 750mb temps for euro 

[Amped]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Euro is colder at 850s this run, at least. It’s at least a stop the “bleeding” run

Wouldn't really say that. Kind of a hold the line for now run. 

[balltermen]

8-12", then flip. easy forecast for DC

[mitchnick]

Just now, balltermen said:

we really need 750mb temps for euro 

Once Pivotal catches up, they have sounding plots by clicking on the location. That may be pay only, but they are only $99/year or $10-$12/month.

[balltermen]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Once Pivotal catches up, they have sounding plots by clicking on the location. That may be pay only, but they are only $99/year or $10-$12/month.

R you sure 700-850 isn't implied?

[wasnow215]

Maps? Please and thank you.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Once Pivotal catches up, they have sounding plots by clicking on the location. That may be pay only, but they are only $99/year or $10-$12/month.

TT does also but won't have it updated for another 2 hours probably 

[Buddy1987]

God almighty i'm terrified to see ZR output based on maps slowly trickling out for southern peeps.

[NorthArlington101]

[stormtracker]

It all boils down to when we flip and I don't think we can know until we get better soundings.  We're all kinda guessing at this point

[clskinsfan]

Euro is definitely colder up top than the AI. Holds on at 700 quite a bit longer.

[jayyy]

I’ll take a foot but yeah, euro needs to chill with the NW trend

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Seems drier overall? 

[Weather Will]

The flip on the EURO happens about the same time, but rates before the flip are not as good.

[JenkinsJinkies]

A foot is solidly off the table for the metros then.

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Thank you -does the European model continue to show freezing rain for central Virginia? Obviously we are hoping for sleet.

[yoda]

DCA is still probably snow at 18z looking at sounding

[balltermen]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It all boils down to when we flip and I don't think we can know until we get better soundings.  We're all kinda guessing at this point

Go with 18z and adjust as neeeded

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

DCA is still probably snow at 18z looking at sounding

 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems drier overall? 

Classic La Nina roulette. You play against the warm nose, primary low, late transfer to the coastal, or drier overall. 

[LP08]

Delaying the phase and flatter out front is causing some cut back on qpf for the thump.