January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

The NAM's 2.5-3" of sleet on top of that snow will be hilarious if it verifies. I remember a 3" sleet storm in like 2017 or 2018 and it was a concrete mess.

Feb 2007 was the biggest sleet storm I've ever seen. That storm has been a top 5 analog leading into this weekend lol. My buddy's wife is an Xray tech and she said they had a line out the door for 3 days following that storm. Mostly from sledding accidents lol. It was an absolute glacier in my yard. It was supposed to be a big snow storm and I was initially bummed when the flip came in quick but as the sleet kept piling up I was fascinated hahaha

[WxUSAF]

Fwiw at 60hrs, snow/sleet line along KY/TN border looks fairly similar between 3k NAM, FV3, and RGEM. 

[Nomz]

Apple weather is still showing 20-25 inches in DC… some people are going to be very disappointed.

[baltosquid]

Heights lower out front at 66 (UKMET)

[yoda]

Ukie a bit slower i think... at 66 its just starting to show snow at DCA

[baltosquid]

UKMET also starting to show a Hudson Bay/James Bay low like the GFS and ICON… may help us.

[StormyClearweather]

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Feb 2007 was the biggest sleet storm I've ever seen. That storm has been a top 5 analog leading into this weekend lol. My buddy's wife is an Xray tech and she said they had a line out the door for 3 days following that storm. Mostly from sledding accidents lol. It was an absolute glacier in my yard. It was supposed to be a big snow storm and I was initially bummed when the flip came in quick but as the sleet kept piling up I was fascinated hahaha

I've been using that storm as a guide here but displaced 75 miles south or so...very similar but the thermal boundary is a little further south this time.  

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Heights lower out front at 66 (UKMET)

Flips the sleet lever a little earlier anyway. Still should be a fine run.

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Feb 2007 was the biggest sleet storm I've ever seen. That storm has been a top 5 analog leading into this weekend lol. My buddy's wife is an Xray tech and she said they had a line out the door for 3 days following that storm. Mostly from sledding accidents lol. It was an absolute glacier in my yard. It was supposed to be a big snow storm and I was initially bummed when the flip came in quick but as the sleet kept piling up I was fascinated hahaha

I remember that storm well since it was my senior year of HS and we got an entire week off of school or close to it.  Just concrete glaciers of sleet.  It was really unlike anything I can remember around here.

[yoda]

Pounding snow at DCA at 18z Sunday on 12z UKIE 

[WxWatcher007]

Good stuff @wxmvpete

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Flips the sleet lever a little earlier anyway. Still should be a fine run.

I don't have Kuchera maps but widespread 10-15" - dc sorta gets holed somehow but it's fine.

[baltosquid]

Changes still don’t end up doing much at the surface. Just amps too much. Very similar track.

[Derecho!]

7 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

The NAM's 2.5-3" of sleet on top of that snow will be hilarious if it verifies. I remember a 3" sleet storm in like 2017 or 2018 and it was a concrete mess.

In the 1993 Superstorm we were at a college speech and debate tournament at Seton Hall U. in New Jersey. No one could make it to campus so we had the whole tournament in a hotel and gave away bars of hotel soap as trophies.I

I believe it was about 15" of snow with 2" of ice on top of it. I had to borrow a snow shovel from the hotel to chip our 14 passenger van out of the ice in the parking lot - I quickly broke the shovel and chiseled it out with the wooden handle. 

[87storms]

Pretty obvious given the low dews leading in that the main model convergence now is on a front end thump (6-10”?) with wildcards thereafter depending on low track, strength of cad, etc.

[yoda]

12z UKIE 10:1

 

[StormyClearweather]

[yoda]

Can I get an explanation as to why Kuchera is so low on 12z UKIE?  

[TSSN+]

Just now, yoda said:

Can I get an explanation as to why Kuchera is so low on 12z UKIE?  

Sleet and lower ratios for people 

[EHoffman]

Just now, yoda said:

Can I get an explanation as to why Kuchera is so low on 12z UKIE?  

I'm guessing pivotal 10:1 includes sleet and Kuchera does not.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z UKIE 10:1

 

Ukie says my man Mill is better off staying home then coming out to Martinsburg lol

[clskinsfan]

This is evolving into a sleet bomb pretty quickly. Does anyone know of a comparable storm to what is being modeled? I cant find one.

[jaydreb]

GEFS is a beat down. Hope it’s right.
 

 

[pazzo83]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

This is evolving into a sleet bomb pretty quickly. Does anyone know of a comparable storm to what is being modeled? I cant find one.

Valentine's Day 2007?

[TSSN+]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

This is evolving into a sleet bomb pretty quickly. Does anyone know of a comparable storm to what is being modeled? I cant find one.

Kinda similar to the VD sleet storm in 07 just more south version. 

[bncho]

GEFS nuke

[Terpeast]

I’m hoping for a compromise between gfs and everything else. But i suspect the gfs will cave by tomorrow

[MillvilleWx]

I know everyone loves the GFS, but currently it is not in-line with a majority of the guidance, so if I was on the desk, I’d be doing a forecast that was non-GFS based.  Current model diagnostic would be a compromise of EC/ECENS/AIFS with short term Nam Nest thermals through hour 48. 
 

Still not in range of the Nest yet, but that will be the model to watch starting the afternoon runs tomorrow, moving forward. Below are some positive and negative takeaways with this current setup. 
 

Positives: 

1) The QPF will be prolific (>1” area wide) and much of it will actually fall in the form of snow from the initial WAA scheme that will materialize Saturday night through Sunday morning.
 

2) A solid 8-12 hrs, minimum for heavy snowfall with rates between 1-2”/hr likely with a few bands likely to exceed 2”/hr within the best banding structures during the WAA pattern. These will align west-east or wsw-ene to align with the approaching 7H FGEN and lesser extent 85H FGEN. 
 

3) IT WILL BE COLD!!! Unless you are on the eastern shore to perhaps the longitude of Cambridge, you will stay below freezing. NBM temps are teens to low 20s for a vast majority of the sub during the entirety of the event. This is a very prolific cold wedge and it’s evident it will be present at surface and really holds firm even at 925mb. Any precip that does fall will likely be icy in nature for the majority of the subforum, but ZR potential will be possible east of the Bay, and especially for southern VA towards the Northern Neck of the Tidewater. 
 

Negatives:

1) A large majority of us will likely mix AT SOME POINT. Yes, even to the M/D is plausible, but the further north and west you are from the Fall line (I-95 proxy), you will stay snow longer. There will probably be a small area that stays all snow and that will likely be where the jackpot occurs or is one of the two maxima. Sleet will be the secondary precip type after any changeover as the warm nose is typically shallow, between 800-700mb, but could push closer to +2/3+° C for areas south of I-66. The tongue will be less pronounced further north, so rate dependence will be interesting to see if evaporational cooling can mix out the warm layer at times and cause the sleet line to oscillate, which is customary with these setups. 
 

2) Post storm cold will be brutal. Absolutely BRUTAL!! Highs will struggle for many days to get above 26°, let alone get to freezing. This stuff is not going anywhere. It will freeze solid by Tuesday morning. We joke about building a glacier, but that’s what’s going to happen here. Be prepared for longevity in this. 
 

3) Significant to even crippling ice storm likely for far Southwest VA across the NC/VA line to near the Tidewater. Ice accretion of >1” is possible in that entire corridor and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 1.25-1.5” radial ice accums present in that zone. Temps will struggle to break beyond 28° leading to efficient ice accretion processes which will accumulate on everything. Some snow and sleet can offset the impact initially, but it’s apparent that this is going to happen. Please be prepared if you live down there. It will be one to remember imo. 
 

I’ll have a forecast tomorrow. Right now, still gauging things, but a major winter storm is coming and it will be a doozy for many. Historic aspects will be the cold and longevity of it all, plus the ice. MECS for sure. Appreciate all the contributions we’ve had leading in. I’ll be around through the event. 

[EHoffman]

I'm interested in just a purely weather standpoint of how this is gonna play out.  We basically never see heavy snow at these temps let alone dumping sleet at 20 degrees.  The QPF, the cold, all of it is really kind of unprecedented in the metros around here.