“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Massplow said:

Channel 7 gave the south coast a haircut 

Risky forecast giving a haircut on south shore down near PYM/Duxbury/GHG/Carver....while it's possible they get sleeted on, they could really stack it up from ocean enhancement too. 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, Massplow said:

Channel 7 gave the south coast a haircut 

Reasonable near me. But a chance they bust too low in northern Bristol/Plymouth. 

[ScituateMA]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Reasonable near me. But a chance they bust too low in northern Bristol/Plymouth. 

I think 8-12 in portland and southern maine is going to bust as well.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't tell if it's a G-wave or maybe the CF?? But something comes flying in from PA late Sunday night. Weird looking. Can see it at H7 too.

One of these right into your face ?

 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Masswx said:

I don’t like these trends

I know where you got the fear DNA from

[wxsniss]

Quickly catching up, haven't been able to post today...

Not sure what to make of the 18z NAM… 18z ICON, RGEM, and GFS held relatively steady in terms of thermals, and Jan 23 19z NBM so far has not flinched though I’m not sure if these models make it in the blend (I do not take these NBM forecasts literally):

So we watch for elevated warming nipping at south coast and beyond but remain skeptical unless further support. At worst, looks like heavy thump followed by light sleet / dryslot after bulk of accumulation.

More definite takeaway from 12z-18z suite today is less promising coastal cyclogenesis CCB potential for Monday. By 18z Monday, flow at 925-850 becomes more northerly and dries out (corresponding to closing lows further northeast) on all guidance, whereas in prior runs (again, 0z ICON from 1/22 being the best depiction with easterly fetch beyond 18z Monday (with closed 925-850 low south of LI). It's 60+ hrs out so arguably that’s still in play, but it’s looking less likely.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Masswx said:

I don’t like these trends

What?  Don't fall for the trap. All systems go. 

[Southshorewx]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Reasonable near me. But a chance they bust too low in northern Bristol/Plymouth. 

They dont care. Once you get up to those ranges schools are closed and travel is hazardous. They could put 10+ everywhere and they are covered. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Quickly catching up, haven't been able to post today...

Not sure what to make of the 18z NAM… 18z ICON, RGEM, and GFS held relatively steady in terms of thermals, and Jan 23 19z NBM so far has not flinched though I’m not sure if these models make it in the blend (I do not take these NBM forecasts literally):

So we watch for elevated warming nipping at south coast and beyond but remain skeptical unless further support. At worst, looks like heavy thump followed by light sleet / dryslot after bulk of accumulation.

More definite takeaway from 12z-18z suite today is less promising coastal cyclogenesis CCB potential for Monday. By 18z Monday, flow at 925-850 becomes more northerly and dries out (corresponding to closing lows further northeast) on all guidance, whereas in prior runs (again, 0z ICON from 1/22 being the best depiction were easterly (with closed 925-850 low south of LI). 60+ hrs out, that’s still in play, but it’s looking less likely.

Where do you get that plot from again?

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This?

00z Monday 700mb vorticity

Not that. Comes in from PA. Can see it on MSLP and 700 VV.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’m not worried.  Steady as she goes here

[Kitz Craver]

Nope, this has been pretty steady at my location as soon as the northern push commenced 

[J Paul Gordon]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sleet to NH?

Seriously? 14 to 24 imby.

[Chrisrotary12]

We still haven’t had a congrats dendrite run yet.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not my storm. No f’s given

What lol. Enjoy 12+

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Seriously? 14 to 24 imby.

No . Not yet 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

19 minutes ago, Masswx said:

I don’t like these trends

Serious question. What trends lol

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Serious question. What trends lol

Think the NAM spooked him. Even so, was a great thump.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Think the NAM spooked him. Even so, was a great thump.

I mean, did sleet even theoretically make it there? It looked like it stopped around me. Either way, looked to warm. Nothing else shows that.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean, did sleet even theoretically make it there? It looked like it stopped around me. Either way, looked to warm. Nothing else shows that.

Yeah for a few hours

[RDRY]

34 minutes ago, Massplow said:

Channel 7 gave the south coast a haircut 

Must not factor in the GFS, which has consistently given 0.6-0.8 liquid in the Berks.

[ScituateMA]

https://mapwall.met.psu.edu/ewall/nbm/



I am tossing the NAM for now. Unless 00z shows significant changes i think even the south coast performs exceptionally well. Maybe not as well as the weenie in all of us hopes, but lets be honest. The last years have been absolutely brutal. We finally have a decent pattern shaping up. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah for a few hours

I’m skeptical sleet makes it north of like Fall River, if at all.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

32 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Reasonable near me. But a chance they bust too low in northern Bristol/Plymouth. 

Yeah, that’s a bad map, at least for the northern half of Bristol and Plymouth counties, and probably for all of them too.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Springfield MA already canceled schools for both Monday and Tuesday. I can see Monday but Tuesday seems  agresive.  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Springfield MA already canceled schools for both Monday and Tuesday. I can see Monday but Tuesday seems  agresive.  

With the way they plow here I wouldn't be shocked if they end up closed through Thursday. Probably won't see a plow on my street until Tuesday. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m skeptical sleet makes it north of like Fall River, if at all.

Yeah we'll see. NAM can be overamped at this time,  but also sometimes correct. I'm not sweating it either way...not changing my outlook here which is 12-18. Not confident in Monday yet to go higher. Maybe tomorrow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, that’s a bad map, at least for the northern half of Bristol and Plymouth counties, and probably for all of them too.

State cancelled Monday.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

State cancelled Monday.

Yup, thank god. What an awful commute that would have been 

[Damage In Tolland]

Hammer Hammers