“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s with the obsession with the mixing talk? In order to get mixing up into this airmass, you’re gonna charge Mother Nature a fee of about 10-15” of snow. It’s just gonna take so much forcing.

I never understood those 50-75 miles north of me worrying about it. As of now, its purely a concern right along the coast/cape. Still a good hit regardless. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Only mixing between Sunday and Monday will be Bacardi with coke 

Thanks for the post-work relaxer idea Sunday night after I get home

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[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At least the AI version nudged colder than 0z.

06z was a bit warmer.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s with the obsession with the mixing talk? In order to get mixing up into this airmass, you’re gonna charge Mother Nature a fee of about 10-15” of snow. It’s just gonna take so much forcing.

It’s unfounded panic because Pope has scared some people into thinking the primary low is eventually tracking over Albany.  

[EastonSN+]

Just now, dryslot said:

06z was a bit warmer.

Thanks was going off the MA forum analysis. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06z was a bit warmer.

Kind of a mixed bag. Seemed colder with the initial thump, and a bit warmer along coast when the secondary got cranking. ^regarding 6z Euro AI. 

[dryslot]

And when I mention warmer it’s at the end but as I said earlier, It was the 06z euro and it only got as far as LI.

[Prismshine Productions]

Remarkably negative comments here even for this group of Eeyores. 
 

Rule of thumb: not in the bullseye, cry foul. I have a chance to see the most single-storm snowfall in my life so I am just sitting back and waiting

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[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 9Z NBM

FWIW can extrapolate to CT

[dryslot]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Kind of a mixed bag. Seemed colder with the initial thump, and a bit warmer along coast when the secondary got cranking. 

It’s at the end and the damage was already done.

[Prismshine Productions]

It’s unfounded panic because Pope has scared some people into thinking the primary low is eventually tracking over Albany.  

Imagine taking the Pope over 30 seconds of actually looking at the model...

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[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It’s at the end and the damage was already done.

Yeah, its frigid to start. The floor for this storm is super high. The mix discussion is only relevant for those who want to maximize any snowfall from redevelopment. and mainly in SE sections. 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Last night’s 0z on top.

6z below. Thanks, Will!

For comparison. Its just snowfall.

[WxWatcher007]

Man, it's gonna be fun to get into meso range with this one. 

[FXWX]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s with the obsession with the mixing talk? In order to get mixing up into this airmass, you’re gonna charge Mother Nature a fee of about 10-15” of snow. It’s just gonna take so much forcing.

1000% agree... I mentioned yesterday how negativity seems to overwhelm even when a good old fashioned storm develops!  

[CoastalWx]

Yeah not worried about mixing unless we slot and it gets to 34 with snizzle. Big deal. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay... for the first time I'm impressed by the model solutions overnight.  

1 to 1.5' (that's feet) of snow "precipitating" out of a modeling consensus that frankly ... could be underdone considering the feeding circumstances into this whole thing.  This is running an anomalously rich subtropical sourced air up underneath an impressive if not historically cold air mass intrusion currently just entering the NP ... This air mass will continue to load into everywhere N of roughly Enid Oklahoma to Va Beach - obviously colder N within that immense region.   Meanwhile, said starkly opposing air mass is bulging back N, or trying to (...it's going over top!) from southern TX across the Gulf interface with the continent down there.

As an aside, this really looks like a battle between well established and sufficiently time laged MJO Phase 6 modulation, which is trying to realize it's correlated temperature/moisture bias, which is rich in the OV/TN region;  where incongruously ...we find said mammoth cold invasion setting up.   Thus, an immense conflict has emerged(ing) at both larger teleconnection scaled correlations, as well as what is physically being actually observed.  

And here I've been focused on the 29-02 dates ( and still am interested in that range, btw ).  I kind of missed this I think.  If I'm being totally honest.

I see this now as a planetary event. What I mean by that, it is rooted in all these super structures ... modulations that have come into larger scaled conflict set to take place.  This is a WHOPPER of a correction event.  Ginormous opposing planetary signals set to resolve their differences, impacting half the country to do it.  

About the only con to this happening as such at this point ... we have to keep in mind that everything described/analyzed above is based upon the virtual plot/movie history of the guidance.  They could be telling the wrong story... I see that as less likely, tho - shy of moderating impacts in specific areas and back yards, when the whole of thing is manifested out of these root observations about the state of the larger environment, that's a clue to deterministic comfort when that is the case.   Something has to correct this mess, we have model solutions capable of doing it.  There's not much else we can do.

[Great Snow 1717]

44 minutes ago, mattm4242 said:

Channel 5 WCVB is the first to sound the alarm 

The push for ratings has begun lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah not worried about mixing unless we slot and it gets to 34 with snizzle. Big deal. 

Call the school so they can relay that to Bryce. He was very worried this morning. He’ll have a better day now…

[Prismshine Productions]

Okay... for the first time I'm impressed by the model solutions overnight.  
1 to 1.5' (that's feet) of snow "precipitating" out of a modeling consensus that frankly ... could be underdone considering the feeding circumstances into this whole thing.  This is running an anomalously rich subtropical sourced air up underneath an impressive if not historically cold air mass intrusion currently just entering the NP ... This air mass will continue to load into everywhere N of roughly Enid Oklahoma to Va Beach - obviously colder N within that immense region.   Meanwhile, said starkly opposing air mass is bulging back N, or trying to (...it's going over top!) from southern TX across the Gulf interface with the continent down there.
As an aside, this really looks like a battle between well established and sufficiently time laged MJO Phase 6 modulation, correlated temperature/moisture bias, which is rich in the OV/TN region, where incongruously ...we find mammoth cold invasion setting up.   Thus, an immense conflict at both larger teleconnection scaled correlations, as well as what is physically being actually observed.  
And here I've been focused on the 29-02 dates ( and still am interested in that range, btw ).  I kind of missed this I think.  If I'm being totally honest.
I see this now as a planetary. What I mean by that, it is rooted in all these super structures ... modulations that have come into larger scaled conflict set to take place.  This is a WHOPPER of a correction event.  Ginormous opposing planetary signals set to resolve their differences, impacting half the country to do it.  
About the only con to this happening as such at this point ... we have to keep in mind that everything described/analyzed above is based upon the virtual plot/movie history of the guidance.  They could be telling the wrong story... I see that as less likely - shy of moderating impacts in areas and back yards, the whole of thing in manifested out of these root observations about the state of the larger environment.  That's a clue to deterministic comfort when that is the case.   Something has to correct this mess, we have model solutions capable of doing it.  There's not much else we can do.

So snuck under your radar... How impressed are you in awe about the storm set up and impact range?

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[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Call the school so they can relay that to Bryce. He was very worried this morning. He’ll have a better day now…

He’s shook from 4 years of shit. Frankly I am too lol.

[mreaves]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mixes to SNH. Toaster bath.

Oh how us northerners pray!

[ri_lurker1314]

Does a 6:45AM flight out of Logan Monday AM have a chance to get out? I wonder about all of the different dynamics. Doesn't seem to be blizzardish, and I've taken off on trips where the snow was definitely heavy. That said, it didn't come after a foot of snow previously needed to clear from the runway, but alas. 

[moneypitmike]

56 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I am pissed off our owner decided to fire Sean IN DENVER right after the game

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Should have fired him after last season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean nothing supports 2’ really. I’d want to see like at least  1.7” QPF modeled in a broad area to entertain its 

Yea, not my map...just trying to rationalize. Wankum is awful...you know my thoughts on him.

[Bryan63]

7 minutes ago, ri_lurker1314 said:

Does a 6:45AM flight out of Logan Monday AM have a chance to get out? I wonder about all of the different dynamics. Doesn't seem to be blizzardish, and I've taken off on trips where the snow was definitely heavy. That said, it didn't come after a foot of snow previously needed to clear from the runway, but alas. 

For what it's worth, I had a 7am flight out of Logan Monday and Delta strongly suggested finding alternative times. Granted I was flying to Memphis, connecting at LaGuardia so the whole route is impacted by this.

Happily scrapped my work trip so I can stay home for this.

[dendrite]

This will be one of those events too where Ray is clearing every 6hrs and ends up with 5” more than the guy across the street who sticks his yardstick in at the end. 1”+ of QPF as primarily fluff will have natural compaction.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@CoastalWxI would also be careful about implying that map means 24" over a broad area...my guess is the inference there is it would be localized, which later maps will specify. 

I know 2 feet is the exception rather than the rule, but I just have issues with that map I guess that’s all. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, mattm4242 said:

Channel 5 WCVB is the first to sound the alarm 

Kind of a wild call at this lead. Very hard to walk that back if something changes lol

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

This will be one of those events too where Ray is clearing every 6hrs and ends up with 5” more than the guy across the street who sticks his yardstick in at the end. 1”+ of QPF as primarily fluff will have natural compaction.

I was wondering what my total would’ve been the other day, because I didn’t clear. I just stuck my ruler in in the morning. Wonder if I would’ve been over 7 inches. Wet snow to start then more fluffy.