SACRUS Posted Tuesday at 05:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:47 AM 00Z QPF Summary NYC GFS: 0.4 GGEM: 0.9- 1.1 UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 GEFS: 0.4 - 0.6 GEPS (Canadian Ensemble mean QPF): 0.8 - 1.0 Euro AI AIFS: 0.4 - 0.6 ECMWF: Coming.. 1.0 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Tuesday at 05:50 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:50 AM 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: Post more maps guys. Don't just say north/south etc, show us something. I honestly don't even care anymore if it's just a snow map. I gave up on that years ago at this point. euro is a full phase, ends up tucking offshore. huge hit that run to run change is nuts 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Tuesday at 05:53 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:53 AM 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: euro is a full phase, ends up tucking offshore. huge hit that run to run change is nuts 2 surface lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Tuesday at 05:55 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:55 AM 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: 2 surface lows? it’s overrunning to coastal 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Tuesday at 05:57 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:57 AM It goes into Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Tuesday at 05:59 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:59 AM Euro/AI solution makes more sense as to how it evolves. I still like flatter down in the Deep South with more a late evolution to near the CMC idea off the MA coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Tuesday at 06:13 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:13 AM Euro total QPF long duration into Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Tuesday at 06:16 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:16 AM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Tuesday at 10:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:08 AM looks like gfs and gfs AI 6z is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:13 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:13 AM 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Its great to see the Euro now on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Tuesday at 10:16 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:16 AM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Its great to see the Euro now on board. Yea GFS went south a little. I'm not worried about that much though. Models are gonna move around. Just happy to see an intense storm still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:18 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:18 AM 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Yea GFS went south a little. I'm not worried about that much though. Models are gonna move around. Just happy to see an intense storm still there Maybe a 2 part system? Euro focused on the trailing wave. Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Tuesday at 10:18 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:18 AM 6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Yea GFS went south a little. I'm not worried about that much though. Models are gonna move around. Just happy to see an intense storm still there It didn't really. It just sharpened the northern extent. Totals for mid Atlantic went up. Last few runs have notably increased SE ridging, which is good in this instance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Tuesday at 10:22 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:22 AM I mean the city still gets 6" more in South Jersey. This is the low end of guidance so far. Need to get this till like Thursday then we can lock in details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Tuesday at 10:23 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:23 AM 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its great to see the Euro now on board. Agreed gfs did horrible with the last storm good to have the euro in our camp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:23 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:23 AM Just now, Franklin0529 said: I mean the city still gets 6" more in South Jersey. This is the low end of guidance so far. Need to get this till like Thursday then we can lock in details Gfs has snow in the teens. Ratios will be high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Tuesday at 10:25 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:25 AM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has snow in the teens. Ratios will be high. I know still about 6-8". Not a bad spot to be lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Tuesday at 10:26 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:26 AM 2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Agreed gfs did horrible with the last storm good to have the euro in our camp Yea it's horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted Tuesday at 10:30 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:30 AM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has snow in the teens. Ratios will be high. That depends on the winds. Someone mentioned yesterday this has Blizzard of 96 looks. That was the only storm I can remember that it snowed heavy with cold temps. And regardless of ground temp, there's always some taint mid way through on these big boys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 10:41 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:41 AM CFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Tuesday at 10:49 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:49 AM GEFS continues to improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Tuesday at 10:54 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:54 AM 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GEFS continues to improve Yeah strong signal on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Tuesday at 11:17 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:17 AM The latest WPC idea. for comparison, yesterday's 0z probability for a moderate impact in New York City was just under 30%. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Tuesday at 11:33 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:33 AM Euro AI with a nice hit. Models a bit slower (Sun into Mon) vs Sat evening/night into Sun. Slower is better for us as it allows high to weaken and lessens suppression risk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Tuesday at 11:56 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:56 AM 6z euro continues with the clean phasing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 11:58 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:58 AM 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: 6z euro continues with the clean phasing. Defintely coming up. Looks really good. Eps is also slightly further north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Tuesday at 12:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:44 PM Why is anyone talking about accumulation right now when we know that doesn’t get settled until real time. as of now it looks like another chance for some snow this weekend; and if all goes right, a significant storm. enjoy the tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Tuesday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:46 PM Just now, BoulderWX said: Why is anyone talking about accumulation right now when we know that doesn’t get settled until real time. as of now it looks like another chance for some snow this weekend; and if all goes right, a significant storm. enjoy the tracking. this could be a MECS. figure 8-16 inches are definitely on the table! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Tuesday at 12:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:50 PM 3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: this could be a MECS. figure 8-16 inches are definitely on the table! Not trying to get into semantics 5 days out. There’s a chance of a storm - with all options from ‘nothing’ to ‘major’ on the table. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Tuesday at 12:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:52 PM 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: Not trying to get into semantics 5 days out. There’s a chance of a storm - with all options from ‘nothing’ to ‘major’ on the table. It’s a weather board, it’s exactly what we are discussing possibilities. SMH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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