jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Its about 30 miles further north which is a huge difference since that encompasses most of the metro If the primary hangs on longer and we have a sharper western trough, more warm air gets pulled north and we flip sooner/more of us flip. Also if it’s drier with that setup we’re screwed two ways since a broken/lighter precip shield will allow warm air to take over sooner. It’s that simple. Hopefully it’s wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, jm1220 said: If the primary hangs on longer and we have a sharper western trough, more warm air gets pulled north and we flip sooner/more of us flip. Also if it’s drier with that setup we’re screwed two ways since a broken/lighter precip shield will allow warm air to take over sooner. It’s that simple. Hopefully it’s wrong. Yeah we need that thump to perform if we're getting anywhere near double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 18z NAM total qpf storm Total snow/ sleet / frz rain (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Jesus NAM! God awful... Yep pretty much back to 6z where mixing gets to almost all of CT and RI. Thankfully it’s on its own pretty much and other models got colder at 12z but a SWFE like system such as this will take any chance it can get to nudge north unless confluence stops it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, jm1220 said: Yep pretty much back to 6z where mixing gets to almost all of CT and RI. Thankfully it’s on its own pretty much and other models got colder at 12z but a SWFE like system such as this will take any chance it can get to nudge north unless confluence stops it. Flips us to plain rain! Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, jm1220 said: Yep pretty much back to 6z where mixing gets to almost all of CT and RI. Thankfully it’s on its own pretty much and other models got colder at 12z but a SWFE like system such as this will take any chance it can get to nudge north unless confluence stops it. The NAM will change every single run to something else. That is what is does. Period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: The NAM will change every single run to something else. That is what is does. Period. You would not say that if it showed want you want. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The NAM is irritating and somehow predictable. Meaningful QPF lost to sleet and then pronounced dryslot with little lingering wraparound. It's also totally believable. We really need to see a meaningful shift south in some guidance tonight - not just holds - to give us room to think the sleet line won't zoom north Sunday afternoon. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Nam 12z and 18z weren’t much different until about hour 30. Then it just went ballistic with the southern vort. Need it more shredded like 12z. Could be the nam just being amp happy but driving that strong of a primary west isn’t gonna do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 throw nam run out not believable.. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Ugly looking NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 From the clown maps it looks like the City south gets more QPF as sleet than as snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: throw nam run out not believable.. NAM is good with thermals so can't throw it out-but if nothing else moves towards it-then I'd be skeptical 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, eduggs said: From the clown maps it looks like the City south gets more QPF as sleet than as snow. That would be .7 as snow and. 7 as sleet. Would still be like 8 or 9 total since sleet will still add up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: The NAM is irritating and somehow predictable. Meaningful QPF lost to sleet and then pronounced dryslot with little lingering wraparound. It's also totally believable. We really need to see a meaningful shift south in some guidance tonight - not just holds - to give us room to think the sleet line won't zoom north Sunday afternoon. I’m not very concerned about it on its own but there’s definitely still time for late north bumps. The confluence needs to hold to force it south. We’re also definitely getting sleet at least up to I-80 and maybe even up to the CT coast eventually, it’s just a matter of how big the initial thump is and how long it can hold back the sleet line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NAM is a warning to stay up later Sunday night and remove the accumulated snow from your driveway and sidewalks before the sleetfest and or freezing rain starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 That NAM run wasn’t great but we’re still 36hrs out and things are going to continue to fluctuate. Any further North and there’s going to be some serious ZR issues for Southern parts of the area. Even as is, the NAM has about a 30 mile swath of 0.10 to 0.20 more or less over 95 with closer to a half inch South of Philly and into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I’m not very concerned about it on its own but there’s definitely still time for late north bumps. The confluence needs to hold to force it south. But haven't we heard this dozens of times before marginal events?... but it's almost always correct with mix lines being further north than the consensus of other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. And because Microsoft no longer supports Windows 95, each frame needs to be scanned independently for viruses. And then it has to be double authenticated. I’m not gonna lie, because of how knowledgeable you are when I read that first line, for a half second, I thought you were confirming the NAM was run on a windows 95 computer. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, eduggs said: But haven't we heard this dozens of times before marginal events?... but it's almost always correct with mix lines being further north than the consensus of other guidance. Its not a marginal event. Temps are frigid. Models are most likely too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Is Mt Holly map still 12-14 for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, eduggs said: But haven't we heard this dozens of times before marginal events?... but it's almost always correct with mix lines being further north than the consensus of other guidance. It's just one more model. Still a long way to go. It's been wrong plenty of times with mix lines. Let's see what the rest of the suite brings before pulling the plug on the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Like the Nam for picking up on warm layers but would like to see it consistent with vort handling two runs in a row before basing anything off its thermals… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Its not a marginal event. Temps are frigid. Models are most likely too warm. NAM gets you to 32 for a bit, and if it's right about the primary being that strong and holding on for so long, it can be even warmer. Still snow and sleet with frigid temperatures to start, but when you can't just say it's cold when the entire dynamics change and it's entirely possible that a large chunk of coastal areas get to or above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: FWIW, on RRFS, the sleet line only barely brushes LI but keeps the city all snow Compare totals from 18z to 12z - this was a huge step back in accumulation. Went from 15 to 9 IMBY as an example for the drop. That’s now NAM, 3k, and RRFS with pronounced warm nose. Not a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 is this slowly becoming a 4-6 inch snow event for the city? NAM always does this not sure if it's right or wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: FWIW, on RRFS, the sleet line only barely brushes LI but keeps the city all snow That's 12Z, the new run is a lot further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: FWIW, on RRFS, the sleet line only barely brushes LI but keeps the city all snow Ive seen storms here literally cut in half,raining in soundview,the bx,snowing in Riverdale,the bx. This storm might be one of those. Southern parts of the city a bit diff then northern manhattan,the bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: FWIW, on RRFS, the sleet line only barely brushes LI but keeps the city all snow This model has been pretty solid this winter. Do we have a comparison with the prior run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I’m not very concerned about it on its own but there’s definitely still time for late north bumps. The confluence needs to hold to force it south. just read the updates for upton and mt holly and they see a northern trend, esp on the gfs. uncertain about how much mixing but mt holly flat out says the I 95 corridor is gonna ping, and there will be rain south. still going 8-12 but keeping cards close to the chest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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