January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[WxMan1]

Well, with the north trends (more of a SW-NE oriented heavy snow axis, closer to climo), we know that means the MIX area gets close. This is a pretty picture now, but we're still 96+ hours away from the onset of the precip. LOVE the northern trends, yes, but for the metro area now would be a good time for the trends to STOP. I don't think they will though, lol. Oh, don't get me wrong, surface temps will stay in the 20s. But those 750-700 mb temps may flirt with 0C with a mix or period of sleet all the way up to Southern MD...maybe even Rte 50 for a little bit. Wouldn't surprise me. Still a hit, oh boy a big hit, but I don't think the northern trends are done either. 

 

 

[nj2va]

CMC is definitely quicker than GFS.  Snow breaking out Saturday evening.

[Jebman]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

1043mb reinforcing HP over Quebec. I might shed a tear 

My feelings exactly. I am blasting every track that ever reminded me of snow, including Gen Z tracks. Everything from 1964 clear to 2026.

All I have EVER wanted, is for this sub to get completely, utterly demolished by snow and cold. That happens, everything is all good for me. I'll be cheering you all on!

[bncho]

CMC might be too amped LOL

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

FOLKS...

dude--i feel like we are living PD 2 again. Monster highs and a crazy STJ. I have dubbed this on FB as the cousin of PD2. This will fall short because PD2 had like 3 inches of liquid lol

[stormtracker]

CMC gets that mix up to DC south.  Transfer would be great on the next panel.   Not gonna sweat that tho

[Scraff]

Incredible GooFuS run! Is it wrong that I wanted 1 more full panel to keep it rolling after 132? How can we slow it down so we can make a run to BECSville?

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC will be a sleet bomb. Shows the danger of having a complete NS phase in

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

CMC might be too amped LOL

If these are the new goalposts I think we can throw suppression worries out the window, lol

[baltosquid]

Yeah CMC is too much of a good thing, honestly.

[Ralph Wiggum]

This place is like gooning central rn geez

[Amped]

Bothe the gfs and the cmc build heights rapidly over the east coast and se canada from 84-102hrs. It went from slightly more risging to a lot more ridging fast. Thats what caused the shift.

[SnowenOutThere]

Congrats to @brooklynwx99 on his CMC run! This run officially makes suppression no longer my biggest concern if we're going to have this much energy out west. 

[snowfan]

Canadian is def going to bring sleet into the picture. has a warm nose at around 700. 

[stormtracker]

We all go to sleet the next panel

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

CMC gets that mix up to DC south

It’s up past Baltimore - Winchester for a time

[clskinsfan]

Mix is part of it if you want the goods. Unfortunately. 

[stormtracker]

So yeah..one extreme is the CMC.   Let's hope it remains the only one showing this..it's still a healthy amount of snow tho

[Interstate]

Look at the temps. 16 in Baltimore and 40s in OC

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Look at the temps. 16 in Baltimore and 40s in OC

Almost always see this w the good ones. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Mix is part of it if you want the goods. Unfortunately. 

No it is not. Frankly its a ridiculous statement. In order to get the goods we don't need a huge ass full phase out west. Remember, the Ukmet has shown its HECS in part because the phase is so messy which leads to better moisture transport. We want to see less NS interaction going into the 6z suite for some of the models now. 

[stormtracker]

Looks like about 14" on the CMC Kuchera..not sure if that includes sleet

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Congrats to @brooklynwx99 on his CMC run! This run officially makes suppression no longer my biggest concern if we're going to have this much energy out west. 

I mean DC already has close to a foot on the ground at that point. 

[Nomz]

 Not sure I really buy the GFS or the Canadian at this point... we turn our eyes to the euro 

[nw baltimore wx]

CMC takes the low close to the 40/70 benchmark, while the GFS is out to sea well before that. No idea which is closer to being right.

[umdterps29]

Mix is part of it if you want the goods. Unfortunately. 

It doesn’t have to be. Just about every other model shows how we can get a foot plus of cold powder with no mix issues. For some reason you keep asking for it to amp up more and for what? The potential of 2-3 extra inches if you happen to fall on the right side of the mix?


.

[stormtracker]

Its the CMC and it's on it's own.  Viable solution, but I'll wait for confirmation....up next Euro

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looks like about 14" on the CMC Kuchera..not sure if that includes sleet

sleet on top of 15 inches is such the cousin of PD2....i didnt want that part of it...but it will be impossible to dig out from once all that crap freezes

 

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Its the CMC and it's on it's own.  Viable solution, but I'll wait for confirmation....up next Euro

Regardless i would take that run in a heartbeat. It’s still gorgeous. 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

I mean DC already has close to a foot on the ground at that point. 

CMC is a coastal runner. We do need the north trends to slow down now. We got what we needed today. But we can’t have it keep going. Tomorrow is only Wednesday