January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z Canadian parallel 

[stormtracker]

precip panels should start rocketing here in a sec.  Usually do around 78 on SV

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My take: It's actually been the best op model in terms of verification scores over the last 6 months or so...and it was the one model to never tease us with that disaster last February.  It's new but so far its been impressive.  Having it on our side here is a big deal.  

We’re like 84 hours out and it’s been rock steady. It’s been killing it inside D5, so got to like where we stand

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My take: It's actually been the best op model in terms of verification scores over the last 6 months or so...and it was the one model to never tease us with that disaster last February.  It's new but so far its been impressive.  Having it on our side here is a big deal.  

It did really well with the last system for us in Jersey vs the GFS OP (too amped) and Euro OP (suppressed). 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

precip panels should start rocketing here in a sec.  Usually do around 78 on SV

Of course as I say that, the mfer stops locks.

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Dude, I'm literally trying to process the bio test that I got back and found that I bombed it.  Low blow, man.

I'm so happy you're not busy doing school stuff now!

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

IIRC the GFS never fully came on board either. A bit strange given how god-awful that model usually is.

It did come on board though for one day...then backed off, but it was less enthusiastic for as long as other guidance. 

11 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

You forgot squirrel indicators... This gets mentioned and I swear Is a factor. 

I don't have time to watch squirrels, but please feel free to let us know 

[bncho]

Just now, IronTy said:

Imagine failing any HS test.  Must be a real punch to the gut.  

I didn't "fail". It's just not a good score. If the Euro shows 24" however all will be forgiven.

[stormtracker]

Still stuck.   Still looks just a tad flatter out in front, i can't say whether it's going to change much....still a shit ton of moisture gathering

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Still stuck.   Still looks just a tad flatter out in front, i can't say whether it's going to change much....still a shit ton of moisture gathering

the NS looks less amplified 

[BristowWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Still stuck.   Still looks just a tad flatter out in front, i can't say whether it's going to change much....still a shit ton of moisture gathering

was hoping for a fuck ton...but whatever

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Still stuck.   Still looks just a tad flatter out in front, i can't say whether it's going to change much....still a shit ton of moisture gathering

Why does it feel like SV went all in on speed and cut corners everywhere else? Lol

[stormtracker]

Looks like a hold from 6z

[NorthArlington101]

Still stuck.   Still looks just a tad flatter out in front, i can't say whether it's going to change much....still a shit ton of moisture gathering

Can tell you we are getting smacked at 99 but I’ll let you have it

[Weather Will]

WB EURO AI compared to EURO at 1am Sat look very similar

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looks like a hold from 6z

So then where’s my folks? 

[stormtracker]

Its very nice

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

So then where’s my folks? 

I just can't see precip type maps.   If I knew it was snow, it would be a FOLKS

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

So then where’s my folks? 

If they're smart about it they're waiting until tomorrow.

[stormtracker]

And also, fucking SV stops at 99 and jumps to like 132...wtf

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

And also, fucking SV stops at 99 and jumps to like 132...wtf

AI went did that. Went from 48 to 132

[DDweatherman]

I'm 90% sure Euro is FOLKS for quite a few in the sub based on the precip maps. 

[wkd]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why does it feel like SV went all in on speed and cut corners everywhere else? Lol

And SV graphics suck.

[stormtracker]

Get above 0c at 850 around  108 but shit is moving out by then

[clskinsfan]

Just looking at the AI temp panels and it does push the 700 temps close to freezing just south of DC. My wag is it is all snow from DC north and west. 

[jayyy]

If they're smart about it they're waiting until tomorrow.

You seem very superstitious. And while I very much understand the level of despair you’ve felt as a snow weenie over the past 10 years, science doesn’t care about waiting until tomorrow to say folks or open up threads on our forum.

[stormtracker]

99-108 is pretty sick if you like QPF porn

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Get above 0c at 850 around  108 but shit is moving out by then

By "shit" are you referring to precipitation and surface low pressure? 

[TSSN+]

Maps incoming 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

99-108 is pretty sick if you like QPF porn

so roughly about 9 hours?

[Solution Man]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

so roughly about 9 hours?

I think he’s talking about the heavy stuff