January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[NorthArlington101]

One thing worth noting on the NAM, perhaps, is that it seems very skeptical of freezing rain as the dominant non-snow Ptype. Lot of sleet, even way down south.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

NAM more phased than6z euro at 72 hours. NAM gonna NAM?

probably why its getting retired and going into the Weenie Hall of Fame

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

CWG is still saying just a “60-70% chance of 6 inches or more” on Twitter


.

I don't think that is what that chart says...looks more like 84 -100% for our area if i'm reading it right

[clskinsfan]

CAD at onset is really tasty on the NAM though. With the cold air still pouring down east of the mountains. A lot of cold air to scour out before any flip. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

One thing worth noting on the NAM, perhaps, is that it seems very skeptical of freezing rain as the dominant non-snow Ptype. Lot of sleet, even way down south.

I think that makes a lot of sense with how deep this arctic airmass is. These NAM runs are going to be showing like 3-4” of sleet I’d bet for the mid-south in the next couple days.

[Weather Will]

Great NAM is showing a strong storm and strong high rather than strung out crap at 84.....otherwise pretty worthless to interpret.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

probably why its getting retired and going into the Weenie Hall of Fame

One of your best

[IUsedToHateCold]

It's the NAM outside of it's reliable range (if that is even a thing), right? 

I can't be worried with a 1042 High Pressure sitting right to the north. Next.

 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

That would most likely put a ton of mixing issues into the I-95 cities if you extrapolate it. 

And if it one thing we should all be doing now it is extrapolating the NAM.   Keep us posted

[IronTy]

Ugh now I have to worry about the mixing line.  It's never straightforward.  

[RDM]

NWS expanded the WSW more.  Already one of the larger scale WSWs we've seen for a long time.  And there's a lot more to come.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Ugh now I have to worry about the mixing line.  It's never straightforward.  

We live in the Mid Atlantic.  We all do.  Biz as usual.   It's gonna snow.  A lot.

[StormyClearweather]

✱FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY✱ 

The extrapolation comment made me think I'd try something funny, so I told Gemimi to create the next frame of the NAM.

[H2O]

If that HP to the north of NY can stay there as long as possible it will balance out the amped look

[H2O]

Watch for that going forward.  Keep that fucker from sliding east to maine

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

✱FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY✱ 

The extrapolation comment made me think I'd try something funny, so I told Gemimi to create the next frame of the NAM.

Yes! The dgex is back! 

[clskinsfan]

Cold air still pouring south on the NAM. Really looks great imo.

[stormtracker]

I'll wait for the pros to chime in (and yes we know it's the NAM but we need entertainment until the real models), but the NAM honestly doesn't look that bad.  Cold looks impressive enough maybe to offset the amping a little.  Also, keep in mind, this could be 100% weenie coping at the moment too.   Probably more that.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Cold air still pouring south on the NAM. Really looks great imo.

I think there is almost no question we at least get a 5-10" thump. The question of the day, which is hopefully resolved by the end of the day so we can set expectations, is whether those of us in the typically sleet-vulnerable areas need to be bracing for snow or sleet after that flip. Didn't look like an issue yesterday so I think folks are appropriately riled up.

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

✱FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY✱ 

The extrapolation comment made me think I'd try something funny, so I told Gemimi to create the next frame of the NAM.

I tried it and it gave me a well-worded laid out 12 hr forecast following the 84hr map of the 12z nam. Basically said it was redeveloping off the coast and on its way to clobber upstate NY and New England. Sleet storm for DCA/BWI/PHL. Clearly Gemini cant extrapolate as favorably as us weenies do.

[Interstate]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think there is almost no question we at least get a 5-10" thump. The question of the day, which is hopefully resolved by the end of the day so we can set expectations, is whether those of us in the typically sleet-vulnerable areas need to be bracing for snow or sleet after that flip. Didn't look like an issue yesterday so I think folks are appropriately riled up.

Well most likely you will have to wait until tomorrow for that information.

[paulythegun]

16 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

✱FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY✱ 

The extrapolation comment made me think I'd try something funny, so I told Gemimi to create the next frame of the NAM.

This wasted about 50,000 gallons of water in a datacenter in the southwest.... EVAPORATED WATER THAT WILL FUEL OUR COMING SNOWSTORM!!!

[yoda]

12z RGEM h5 at 60

 

 

[StormyClearweather]

In the "old days," the NAM was the best at CAD setups, especially the 3K when it gets into range, and models (especially globals) scoured it out too quickly. As Randy said, might be weenie coping, but I hope that's a trend we see continue as we get closer. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'll wait for the pros to chime in (and yes we know it's the NAM but we need entertainment until the real models), but the NAM honestly doesn't look that bad.  Cold looks impressive enough maybe to offset the amping a little.  Also, keep in mind, this could be 100% weenie coping at the moment too.   Probably more that.

Extrapolated NAM would be an overturned semi hauling Grape Nutz in my yard lol. Had a feeling yesterday morning that in the end a sleet bomb would be more likely than a top 10 snow event. Odds increasing every suite lol. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z RGEM h5 at 60

 

 

Hard to tell early but looks little less phased and little more confluence over the top. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Rgem has more separation out west wrt the baja ull and the ns trying to phase in. A little slower to move out too? May be a less amped outcome.

[yoda]

12z RGEM h5 and precipitation at 84

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Rgem has better position of the hp. Almost moves east in tandem with the slp following right below. More cold press east of the OV.

[baltosquid]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z RGEM h5 at 60

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2026012112/060/500hv.conus.png

 

At 78 compared to 06z, looks like we have better confluence out front. Phase looks maybe a tad more disjointed, Baja low not getting pulled up in front of the NS protrusion to the NW as much? Overall not a huge change but not gonna get amped to death past 84 I think…