stormy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The chance for some ice mixed with the snow seems to be increasing south of Winchester. The latest Canadian gives me 3 inches of sleet on top of 12 inches of snow on Sunday. The 850 temp. is well below freezing, but I creep up to 0c for about 3 or 4 hours at 700. My 10:1 is 12.8" this morning from 8 sources. Kuchera is 19.9. Oh well, sleet will only slow the melting process. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Bamwx doing live broadcast on storm now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 23 minutes ago, nj2va said: We’re under 100 hours from first flakes. @Ji do you have any historical data on when we usually see a major shift in the global models that typically lead to a fundamental change in snowfall forecast for our region? 48-72 hr range? 72-120 hr range? 120-200 hr range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: @Ji do you have any historical data on when we usually see a major shift in the global models that typically lead to a fundamental change in snowfall forecast for our region? 48-72 hr range? 72-120 hr range? 120-200 hr range? 6-12hrs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Latest blend- snow and iceCan’t really ask for better than this 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: @Ji do you have any historical data on when we usually see a major shift in the global models that typically lead to a fundamental change in snowfall forecast for our region? 48-72 hr range? 72-120 hr range? 120-200 hr range? It already happened when the GFS lost the storm yesterday. Feeling pretty good that we all see a foot from this. Maybe to hyped. But thats how I feel. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The 12z NAM got a look at the amped euro solutions and is def getting its warm layers loose in the bullpen right now lol. But in all seriousness usually the NAM is way amped So today it’ll be interesting to see if it bites on the amplification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It already happened when the GFS lost the storm yesterday. Feeling pretty good that we all see a foot from this. Maybe to hyped. But thats how I feel. I want @Ji to chime in on this one as he is the SME on this topic. If I had to guess (especially given the major rug pulls over the last 10 years) almost all of them were lost in 72-120 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest blend- snow and ice What a blend. 15+ inches region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Oh 7 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, yoda said: Oh I-95 Ragebait 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ukie 6z ensembles still moving north a tad from 0z, but not by much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: I-95 Ragebait The red looks more impactful than the purple. they should switch those. purple says hey things are getting serious...red says get your affairs in order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie 6z ensembles still moving north a tad from 0z, but not by much. That is so beautiful. It can stop it’s march North now and ill be in heaven. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Latest Srefs 84hrs has quite the phase. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2026012109&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The red looks more impactful than the purple. they should switch those. purple says hey things are getting serious...red says get your affairs in order From a map makers POV, agreed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, mitchnick said: Latest Srefs 84hrs has quite the phase. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2026012109&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Let's hope that's not correct. Too much of a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, mitchnick said: Latest Srefs 84hrs has quite the phase. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2026012109&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 People still use these? I remember the one storm last year showed us getting 15-18” like 24hrs out and we got 7” lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Toggling the Euro OP since 6z yesterday it had 3 straight runs of north trend then 6z trended back south a bit, PERHAPS we've seen the high water mark of the amplification trends. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TSSN+ said: People still use these? I remember the one storm last year showed us getting 15-18” like 24hrs out and we got 7” lol We can always remember how all guidance had its failure. But when I compared that map to the 6z Eps, it's surprisingly similar and 850 temps are as close to identical as 2 different ensembles can be. So Srefs aren't perfect, but not worth discarding completely imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Looking at the 3 hour qpf panels on the Euro for Sunday morning It's absolutely weather porn. @bncho your to young to look lol. Between 7am and noon theres 2- 3 " an hour rates and thats with 6" + amounts on the ground already. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The Ukie gets Baltimore over 32 degrees and all other models have a max of 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Interstate said: The Ukie gets Baltimore over 32 degrees and all other models have a max of 25. Ukmet sometimes runs too warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 15 minutes ago, yoda said: Oh I guess these updated in real time or they heard the complaints about the red 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, mappy said: From a map makers POV, agreed. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 at 96 hours on the 6z euro if you toggle the 500 map back to 0z you will see significant changes with the vorts out west. That leads me to believe it is still not really locked in, when I see those 500 maps consistent for 2-3 runs with our western vorts I'll believe it is more locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The overrunning with this is going to come in like a brick wall. Ya it may mix but that’s after 2/3 the storm is over and you already got at least 8-12”+ on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 57 minutes ago, mappy said: I get it. But yall wanted it further north hahaha Nothing like a little dendrite drama. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: The overrunning with this is going to come in like a brick wall. Ya it may mix but that’s after 2/3 the storm is over and you already got at least 8-12”+ on the ground I agree that is the general idea here. Of course we want the 2 part with deformation after but there is a reason those are the gold standard storms and obviously very rare. If the 6z Euro is right and our entire area has 10-20 inches on the ground before any mixing, who cares? It'll be awesome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 26 minutes ago, jayyy said: Can’t really ask for better than this Again it will look somewhat different in the next couple cycles. That run almost certainly doesn't include the 6z GFS and Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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