January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[stormy]

The chance for some ice mixed with the snow seems to be increasing south of Winchester.

The latest Canadian gives me 3 inches of sleet on top of 12 inches of snow on Sunday. The 850 temp. is well below freezing, but I creep up to 0c for about 3 or 4 hours at 700.

My 10:1 is 12.8" this morning from 8 sources. Kuchera is 19.9.

Oh well, sleet will only slow the melting process.

[mitchnick]

Bamwx doing live broadcast on storm now.

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

We’re under 100 hours from first flakes. 

@Ji do you have any historical data on when we usually see a major shift in the global models that typically lead to a fundamental change in snowfall forecast for our region? 

 

48-72 hr range?

72-120 hr range?

120-200 hr range?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

@Ji do you have any historical data on when we usually see a major shift in the global models that typically lead to a fundamental change in snowfall forecast for our region? 

 

48-72 hr range?

72-120 hr range?

120-200 hr range?

6-12hrs 

[jayyy]

Latest blend- snow and ice

Can’t really ask for better than this

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

@Ji do you have any historical data on when we usually see a major shift in the global models that typically lead to a fundamental change in snowfall forecast for our region? 

 

48-72 hr range?

72-120 hr range?

120-200 hr range?

It already happened when the GFS lost the storm yesterday. Feeling pretty good that we all see a foot from this. Maybe to hyped. But thats how I feel.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The 12z NAM got a look at the amped euro solutions and is def getting its warm layers loose in the bullpen right now lol.  But in all seriousness usually the NAM is way amped So today it’ll be interesting to see if it bites on the amplification. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It already happened when the GFS lost the storm yesterday. Feeling pretty good that we all see a foot from this. Maybe to hyped. But thats how I feel.

I want @Ji to chime in on this one as he is the SME on this topic.  If I had to guess (especially given the major rug pulls over the last 10 years) almost all of them were lost in 72-120 range.  

[LeesburgWx]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest blend- snow and ice

What a blend. 15+ inches region wide

[yoda]

Oh

 

 

[bncho]

Just now, yoda said:

Oh

 

I-95 Ragebait

[mitchnick]

Ukie 6z ensembles still moving north a tad from 0z, but not by much.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I-95 Ragebait

The red looks more impactful than  the purple.  they should switch those.  purple says hey things are getting serious...red says get your affairs in order

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie 6z ensembles still moving north a tad from 0z, but not by much.

That is so beautiful. It can stop it’s march North now and ill be in heaven. 

[mitchnick]

Latest Srefs 84hrs has quite the phase.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2026012109&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The red looks more impactful than  the purple.  they should switch those.  purple says hey things are getting serious...red says get your affairs in order

From a map makers POV, agreed. 

[Chris78]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Latest Srefs 84hrs has quite the phase.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2026012109&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

 

Let's hope that's not correct. Too much of a good thing.

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Latest Srefs 84hrs has quite the phase.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2026012109&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

 

People still use these? I remember the one storm last year showed us getting 15-18” like 24hrs out and we got 7” lol

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Toggling the Euro OP since 6z yesterday it had 3 straight runs of north trend then 6z trended back south a bit, PERHAPS we've seen the high water mark of the amplification trends. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

People still use these? I remember the one storm last year showed us getting 15-18” like 24hrs out and we got 7” lol

We can always remember how all guidance had its failure. But when I compared that map to the 6z Eps, it's surprisingly similar and 850 temps are as close to identical as 2 different ensembles can be. So Srefs aren't perfect, but not worth discarding completely imho.

[Chris78]

Looking at the 3 hour qpf panels on the Euro for Sunday morning It's  absolutely weather porn.  @bncho your to young to look lol.

Between 7am and noon theres 2- 3 " an hour  rates and thats with 6" + amounts on the ground already.

 

 

[Interstate]

The Ukie gets Baltimore over 32 degrees and all other models have a max of 25.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Interstate said:

The Ukie gets Baltimore over 32 degrees and all other models have a max of 25.

Ukmet sometimes runs too warm at the surface. 

[aldie 22]

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

Oh

 

 

I guess these updated in real time or they heard the complaints about the red

[H2O]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

From a map makers POV, agreed. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

at 96 hours on the 6z euro if you toggle the 500 map back to 0z you will see significant changes with the vorts out west.  That leads me to believe it is still not really locked in, when I see those 500 maps consistent for 2-3 runs with our western vorts I'll believe it is more locked in.

[TSSN+]

The overrunning with this is going to come in like a brick wall. Ya it may mix but that’s after 2/3 the storm is over and you already got at least 8-12”+ on the ground 

[32º]

57 minutes ago, mappy said:

I get it. But yall wanted it further north hahaha 

Nothing like a little dendrite drama.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

The overrunning with this is going to come in like a brick wall. Ya it may mix but that’s after 2/3 the storm is over and you already got at least 8-12”+ on the ground 

I agree that is the general idea here.  Of course we want the 2 part with deformation after but there is a reason those are the gold standard storms and obviously very rare.  If the 6z Euro is right and our entire area has 10-20 inches on the ground before any mixing, who cares?  It'll be awesome. 

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Can’t really ask for better than this

Again it will look somewhat different in the next couple cycles. That run almost certainly doesn't include the 6z GFS and Euro.