January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

its changed me bro....im so relaxed...its that program that someone posted earlier

Hey, whatever it works.  I hope feeling normal and zen feels good.   

Nobody want's a mix, but I'm honestly still hyped for this...but this really has gotta stop right here, lol.   It's a moisture bomb and we got cold for frozen.  

[T. August]

I sleeted in Jan ‘16. Comes with the territory. I don’t want some boring ass .5 qpf bs where the ratio ends up 10:1 anyway.

that being said, please stop going north.

[rjvanals]

As someone who likes power I really hope we can avoid freezing rain with temps around 20 

[MillvilleWx]

That front end thump is a straight ass kicking before any flip. 1-1.4” of precip, all snow before any flip to IP on the EC  for any area west of the Bay. The 700mb FGEN are textbook on Pivotal as the WAA pattern moves in. A solid 10-18” falls before sleet comes into the picture, and the storm actually ends as snow to cap off any sleet. 

This is a really strong WAA pattern being depicted now with the phasing depiction. It will come in really hot and heavy like a wall. Still time for changes. This system can only climb so far north with the current upper level pattern as progged. 
 

QPF prior to flip 

 

Snow before any flip

 

700mb FGEN 

[ravensrule]

Just now, rjvanals said:

As someone who likes power I really hope we can avoid freezing rain with temps around 20 

Power is overrated, there is a reason they make batteries. 

[EHoffman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hey, whatever it works.  I hope feeling normal and zen feels good.   

Nobody want's a mix, but I'm honestly still hyped for this...but this really has gotta stop right here, lol.   It's a moisture bomb and we got cold for frozen.  

For me it's easier to swallow a mix when we get a foot+ of cold smoke right before and temps are in the teens for the duration.  

[Ji]

The euro with the snow ice and sleet and severe cold will cause extreme hardship for the area

[Steve25]

One thing that seems to be coming into hyper focus is that this is going to be a winter storm of proportions that our region as a whole hasn’t experienced in 10 years. I just hope it doesn’t end up being mostly sleet. I’d be perfectly fine with a huge thump of snow followed by sleet. I prefer all snow but it is what it is, and hopefully the trend doesn’t keep pushing. 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

That front end thump is a straight ass kicking before any flip. 1-1.4” of precip, all snow before any flip to IP on the EC  for any area west of the Bay. The 700mb FGEN are textbook on Pivotal as the WAA pattern moves in. A solid 10-18” falls before sleet comes into the picture, and the storm actually ends as snow to cap off any sleet. 

This is a really strong WAA pattern being depicted now with the phasing depiction. It will come in really hot and heavy like a wall. Still time for changes. This system can only climb so far north with the current upper level pattern as progged. 
 

QPF prior to flip 

 

Snow before flip

 

700mb FGEN 

Think paralyzing storm?  Supposed to drive from Brunswick to Rockville on Monday am...trying to decide if I need to cancel.  Trying to wait until Friday.

[rjvanals]

If I remember correctly we had sleet in the huge February 2003 storm as well with temps in the teens? 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Think paralyzing storm?  Supposed to drive from Brunswick to Rockville on Monday am...trying to decide if I need to cancel.  Trying to wait until Friday.

I would wait for sure, but it could be pretty difficult on Monday morning. Still some time to keep an eye on things. 

[Ji]

Hey, whatever it works.  I hope feeling normal and zen feels good.   
Nobody want's a mix, but I'm honestly still hyped for this...but this really has gotta stop right here, lol.   It's a moisture bomb and we got cold for frozen.  

The only time the euro makes a crazy shift in one run is when it screws us

The music is off

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

One thing that seems to be coming into hyper focus is that this is going to be a winter storm of proportions that our region as a whole hasn’t experienced in 10 years. I just hope it doesn’t end up being mostly sleet. I’d be perfectly fine with a huge thump of snow followed by sleet. I prefer all snow but it is what it is, and hopefully the trend doesn’t keep pushing. 

This is what I'm afraid of. I'd be perfectly fine with the thump depicted on the EURO/CMC. But all sleet would be a real punch in the stones because that STILL wouldn't end the snow drought. Hoping things level off today.

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

its changed me bro....im so relaxed...its that program that someone posted earlier

Imagine if while surfing this subforum twc smooth jazz loads and  plays automatically in the background? Could be a game changer for our sanity.

[Maestrobjwa]

Is 6-10" of snow too much to ask? Lol I think I will take even that even if sounded by sleet afterward.

[mitchnick]

EpsAI precip

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, T. August said:

I sleeted in Jan ‘16. Comes with the territory. I don’t want some boring ass .5 qpf bs where the ratio ends up 10:1 anyway.

that being said, please stop going north.

IIRC during GB ‘16 I ended up in a slot for a bit and others sleeted. Still finished with 22.0”. 

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That front end thump is a straight ass kicking before any flip. 1-1.4” of precip, all snow before any flip to IP on the EC  for any area west of the Bay. The 700mb FGEN are textbook on Pivotal as the WAA pattern moves in. A solid 10-18” falls before sleet comes into the picture, and the storm actually ends as snow to cap off any sleet. 

This is a really strong WAA pattern being depicted now with the phasing depiction. It will come in really hot and heavy like a wall. Still time for changes. This system can only climb so far north with the current upper level pattern as progged. 
 

QPF prior to flip 

 

Snow before flip

 

700mb FGEN 

Totally agree. I do think this probably ticks north a little longer before settling back south when we see the magnitude of the cold press in a day or two. That’s not said to incite panic, sincerely, because I believe this has and continues to synoptically look like a huge storm for a lot of people with y’all at the epicenter. Really hope we can all cash in on the setup. 

[HighStakes]

I just realized this run has it snowing late Saturday evening with an inch on the ground by 6z Sunday up this way.

[mitchnick]

Regular Eps snowfall 

 

[MillvilleWx]

You know who is going to absolutely clean up on this setup? @jonjon I’ve been noticing the wind pattern with this one out there. Davis might hit 30” with this one. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

You know who is going to absolutely clean up on this setup? @jonjon I’ve been noticing the wind pattern with this one out there. Davis might hit 30” with this one. 

He gets so much snow it’s really not right, us lowlanders need our turn. 

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

IIRC during GB ‘16 I ended up in a slot for a bit and others sleeted. Still finished with 22.0”. 

Totally agree. I do think this probably ticks north a little longer before settling back south when we see the magnitude of the cold press in a day or two. That’s not said to incite panic, sincerely, because I believe this has and continues to synoptically look like a huge storm for a lot of people with y’all at the epicenter. Really hope we can all cash in on the setup. 

This is very likely. This sub is gonna get real snow. Models will thrash this out for the next few days then we all get smacked HARD by heavy snow throughout the sub.

[TowsonWeather]

23 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

That weather channel snow totals map is going to look really silly

Are you saying Raleigh ISN'T getting 3 feet of snow?

Well THAT doesn't sound right.

[Nomz]

A club I'm in is planning to drive from Luray VA to DC Sunday afternoon... that ain't happening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YwRZIvBpe8 

 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, ravensrule said:

He gets so much snow it’s really not right, us lowlanders need our turn. 

It’s wild out there. A completely different world. I want the front end thump to be like what the models show tonight. That will produce some insane dendrites and walls of white for a while. 

[jaydreb]

EPS. 

[bncho]

Euro AI Ensemble is ridiculous

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

EPS. 

Can I just sign on the dotted line already

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Regular Eps snowfall 

 

That's really perfection. Let's lock that in now lol.

All the ensembles should calm the nerves a little

 

[gunny23]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You know who is going to absolutely clean up on this setup? @jonjon I’ve been noticing the wind pattern with this one out there. Davis might hit 30” with this one. 

Don't say that...we were planning to come home from Davis Sat night to catch the snow here.  I've already stocked firewood and i am ready for ripping snow during the AFCCG.  

I could adjust and ride it out up there but we have elderly neighbors here we take of during snow.  

Ugh.  Decisions decisions