First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

High of 34.3 here. Down to 33.1 now with the snow picking back up. 

I think we're probably fine in CT tomorrow with temps. May be a bit more dicey to our east at least for a bit. 

Ya, we good inland here in CT….just bring the qpf. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

High of 34.3 here. Down to 33.1 now with the snow picking back up. 

I think we're probably fine in CT tomorrow with temps. May be a bit more dicey to our east at least for a bit. 

The impact of the profile farther east would be on the ratios...that snow is going to be quite heavy and wet and I could certainly see some concerns for scattered power outages. One thing I'll say too about tomorrow (and this is a big plus for everyone) is that DGZ is very deep (similar to today), it will not take much lift to really produce good dendrites and that will be a big player where you have the colder profile. 

I think there is going to be a zone of 8-12" somewhere which will be the max jackpot and I think that could end up being the CTRV...there will be a secondary jackpot of about 6-9" somewhere in eastern MA with totals lowered due to the wetter snow. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Regular EPS 

Warning level mean Boston to pvd is pretty good. Even I won’t downplay that 

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I am not impressed overall w/ this event, despite the storm further NW.

MOS shows sfc temps 34-38 F for most of the event across much of CT, all of RI, eastern MA, and Cape Cod.  And precip intensity is not nuts (best 6 hr LEQ amount on the HRRR I see is .50" over the outer Cape), so despite the cold 850 and 925, the BL remains a big problem.

There is zero high pressure to our N.  In fact, it is one big trough from Labrador to the Great Lakes.  This is rare for a coastal storm, and key for ptype in this event.  So the low-level cold is limited, and more importantly, there is no solid N or NE sfc/BL wind to constantly drain the cold air to the N into SNE during the event.  Winds are going to be rather light for a coastal storm, relatively speaking, so this is going to cause issues.

Just before the precip starts in BOS on the NAM, the BL wind is 24011 and 6 hr later it is 1404.  Does that look like a wind direction/trend that is conducive to significant snowfall?  Also BOS buoy SST is 42 F.  W/o solid ageostrophic flow and a mechanism to drain low-level cold air from the N into the heavier precip area, again, this is a big problem for ptype.  You need this to offset relatively mild ocean temps.

And what falls and SOG is likely to be quite different in many areas.

So I would temper expectations here.  Not a big storm (MEH for central pressure and deepening rate) and really no different than the piecemeal, nickel and dime events for snowfall we have dealt w/ so far this winter. 

 

All about rates for eastern zones imho….hard to have major ptype issues if 925 is like -3 with good rates. If the rates are crappy, it will be white rain. But as I always say, “if the rates are so crappy you can’t snow in that thermal profile, you weren’t missing out on much anyway.” 
 

 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Warning level mean Boston to pvd is pretty good. Even I won’t downplay that 

Wow….  Get the flops and speedo ready, we can’t wait to see pictures. 

[8611Blizz]

 big changes on coming on the forecasts later tonight.  Most are 2-4 right now but by 11 pm I would expect some 3-6 4-8 to be showing up.

[Ocean Effect]

WWA for my area just went up, 3-5 inches.

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You actually have to wonder if the heaviest banding may actually occur right over the CT River lmao. This could be a setup where its displaced more northwest than what models indicate 

IF the midlevels get cranking, it's usually near the QPF gradient as a crude rule-of-thumb.

[CarverWX]

WWA posted for here. Calling for 3-5 with spot 6's.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I’ve been trying to get a good reason to toss the AIs and no one could give anything logical.  All hale the Skynets!

Well ... for starters, I gave you plenty - and so did others:   no one can (apparently) define the discrete processes in the construct of these tools.   

For all we know, if they ever succeed(fail) it may just be dumb fuck luck.  This situation is no different.   

This is the logical and the correct approach. 

It certainly may come off as a trophy wave time - firstly, nothing's happened yet.  Secondly, even these tools wavered E at one time or the other over the last 30 hour's worth of cycles. So they are back?   I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. 

Until that happens, you'll get burned one day, eventually ... if you don't know what it is you are dealing with.   

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IF the midlevels get cranking, it's usually near the QPF gradient as a crude rule-of-thumb.

yup...and I think that could end up being pretty damn close to the CT River Valley. The euro really impressed me and for as much as I discounted the AIs its time to take the consistency they've had seriously and factor into the forecast

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

All about rates for eastern zones imho….hard to have major ptype issues if 925 is like -3 with good rates. If the rates are crappy, it will be white rain. But as I always say, “if the rates are so crappy you can’t snow in that thermal profile, you weren’t missing out on much anyway.” 
 

 

It's like you can't have it both ways.  More intensity but warmer BL, or less intensity but colder BL?   Weenie sweet spot somewhere between ORH and TAN?  CoastalWx I know is hopeful! LOL.

[met_fan]

The 1:16 update to the BOX snowfall map might have lowered expected totals…definitely didn’t increase them

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Winter weather advisory goes into effect at 10am tomorrow for here. 2-4”. You have to wonder what drugs they are on, all guidance has this starting down here between 4-6am. 

[moneypitmike]

41 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Just getting back to Maine, moderate snow, just starting to accumulate.

Report of just over 2”so far at Pit2 and coming down good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

It's like you can't have it both ways.  More intensity but warmer BL, or less intensity but colder BL?   Weenie sweet spot somewhere between ORH and TAN?  CoastalWx I know is hopeful! LOL.

Man, Boris, you and CoastalWx need to get a room-

[weatherwiz]

What a weekend this will be

Snow overperformed here today

Bruins go for their 6th consecutive win tonight

Going to get maybe several inches of snow tomorrow

Pats/Texas

Bruins likely acquiring Rasmus Andersson 

Bring it all baby...wrap me up in the goodies 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... for starters, I gave you plenty - and so did others:   no one can (apparently) define the discrete processes in the construct of these tools.   

For all we know, if they ever succeed(fail) it may just be dumb fuck luck.  This situation is no different.   

This is the logical and the correct approach. 

It certainly may come off as a trophy wave time - firstly, nothing's happened yet.  Secondly, even these tools wavered E at one time or the other over the last 30 hour's worth of cycles. So they are back?   I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. 

Until that happens, you'll get burned one day, eventually ... if you don't know what it is you are dealing with.   

A lot of weather is dumb Fuck luck to be honest…random dumb fuck luck actually. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Snow growth is phenomenal here right now...

[DavisStraight]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Report of just over an inch so far at Pit2 and coming down good.

same here but looks like we might get hit by that heavy band moving E-NE that's in Mass now.

[vortex95]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The profile is marginal so I don't disagree with anything you say here.

I just think the excitement is rooted in the possibility that a last minute trend for a thread the needle event seems to be pointing toward a win for the region. A widespread 3-5" would be the biggest event of the season for many, as sad as that is. More than that? Even better. 

Some areas have already done well,  Already had a 6" event on Cape Cod, and parts of CT and central/western MA has done reasonably well also.  Now, it just the area bounded roughly by BOS-LWM-FIT-PVD-GHG that has been "holed" so far.  CoastalWx is in this "hole!" 

[CoastalWx]

That’s about what I expected from BOX. I don’t think they have the confidence to go WSW.

[WinterWolf]

Coming down real nice here again..roads covered again. We add to todays 1 inch. Beautiful wintry appeal.  Snowy weekend. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I mean WTF 

[Baroclinic Zone]

15z SREF basically held serve. Orientation of precip adjusted somewhat and maybe a hair wetter over eastern areas.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean WTF 

looks good.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s about what I expected from BOX. I don’t think they have the confidence to go WSW.

Smart move on their part, for right now. At least if 18z bumps up a hair they can up to a warning in some places 

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s about what I expected from BOX. I don’t think they have the confidence to go WSW.

That would be pushing it WSW. Too much uncertainty w/ low ratios and mild sfc temps.

[eduggs]

IF the latent heat release - trof development feedback loop theory can explain or partly explain the AI vs. physics-based model divide over the past few days, you wouldn't expect a gradually shift towards compromise. You would expect the AIs to hold firm and the physics-based models to shift suddenly and significantly at the last minute.  Only when their initializations start to capture the effect in real time. That would basically be now as Gulf moisture is just now showing up on radar/satellite. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean WTF 

lol no advisory for here tomorrow.. that's for today.. seriously they have some catching up to do