First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The other thing I noticed is that some models are chasing convection. That might factor in too.

12z nam's doing that

the 06z gfs left the conv alone and relies entirely on the synoptic q-g forcing

not sure which is right

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Reggie a tic juiced this cycle.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Ya IF this storm even happens for us, it looks like paste, temps are borderline.. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

at work, did it spread wealth NW, or is it a scraper?

A little bit less WOR, a tad better Emass.  Predecessor looking decent.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z nam's doing that

the 06z gfs left the conv alone and relies entirely on the synoptic q-g forcing

not sure which is right

The GFS is so much more amplified

[ariof]

If Reggie verifies that's a nice snowy Pats game.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, ariof said:

If Reggie verifies that's a nice snowy Pats game.

Been a long time since that model scored a coup

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The GFS is so much more amplified

that's probably why, yeah.   the gfs' synoptic forcing overcomes the convection, and since the nam's deep layer kinematics are weak...the convection takes over.

why not

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya IF this storm even happens for us, it looks like paste, temps are borderline.. 

yeah definitely some white rain here at the start. Honestly though I’d prefer 3” of paste vs 6” of fluff.

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The GFS is so much more amplified

Looks like the whole thing is about to go neggy

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, ariof said:

If Reggie verifies that's a nice snowy Pats game.

Yeah if its raining outside here, I can live vicariously through the Pats game. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

yeah definitely some white rain here at the start. Honestly though I’d prefer 3” of paste vs 6” of fluff.

Especially with the Arctic hounds coming. A lasting pack into February would do this forum some good.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Especially with the Arctic hounds coming. A lasting pack into February would do this forum some good.

I just can’t stand cold and bare ground. Just have it last until hopefully later next week when perhaps another threat looms.

[MJO812]

Gfs might be coming west here

[Kitz Craver]

13 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Looks like the whole thing is about to go neggy

Yeah 12z Nam is back to that convection lagging in the South that some of the models were showing yesterday 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs might be coming west here

Yup

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs might be coming west here

I have a pitchfork ready if you're wrong.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs might be coming west here

Not to cause confusion..but thought trough was a bit flatter at 48h

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a pitchfork ready if you're wrong.

 

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Not to cause confusion..but thought trough was a bit flatter at 48h

[CarverWX]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The other thing I noticed is that some models are chasing convection. That might factor in too.

This is what I was asking about the AI models yesterday. It looks like The GFS and Euro are chasing the stuff far off the coast and the AI's are not

[CoastalWx]

Yeah it’s flatter 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Hey at least if I'm wrong it's a win for you 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Not to cause confusion..but thought trough was a bit flatter at 48h

Ya looked better initially 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Well.. it is Friday.. just not the 13th. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Stick to patrolling the parking meters in Times Square.

[Lucy Pull]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Ya looked better initially 

Looked better at hr36. Flatter by 48.

[MJO812]

Just now, Lucy Pull said:

Looked better at hr36. Flatter by 48.

Yep . Skim job.

Meanwhile the GFSAI is a good hit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think at this point I just want to fill CT with freshwater and wait for SW winds.

[Spanks45]

AI was weaker vs 6z....not huge, maybe more noise than anything

[weatherwiz]

Yeah this isn't going to do it, however, should get at least light snows across a chunk of the region. Would have preferred to see a much better look here but I don't think it's a bad enough look to lean in the direction of not happening.