January 16-18th: Rolling the dice

[AlexD1990]

Snow potential will be this afternoon and evening for the lowlands with the precip on the back side of the coastal low as temps cool. Question is how far west the precip will get- looks like by the time its cold enough it might be on the light side/moving out. Best shot at an inch or 2 at that point will probably be east/southeast of my yard where models indicate a better chance of getting in on some heavier precip as the coastal low passes/pulls out.

You give me hope that maybe this isn't a total dead ratter

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[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

You give me hope that maybe this isn't a total dead ratter

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

GFS is probably the most bullish. Not sure what that's worth given its overall crappiness lately.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Don't look now, but the 15z Hrr has moderate snow over the Baltimore area later today. Another 0.5" here

[high risk]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Don't look now, but the 15z Hrr has moderate snow over the Baltimore area later today. Another 0.5" here

       A round of snow later this afternoon for those east of DC is definitely not off the table.     Even runs late Saturday showed a second round later Sunday afternoon - they just disagreed on how far west it would come.   And there still isn't a ton of agreement on that......

[RevWarReenactor]

Hmmmm colder air is definitely working in already. Light drizzle has turned to light flakes here in Newark De. Earlier we needed rates just to eek out a few mangled flakes. You can clearly see the change. Maybe we are good for 1-2 inches after all 

[RevWarReenactor]

Now bigger flakes too. All snow. 

[clskinsfan]

NOVA/DC snow hole in full effect. What else is new?

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NOVA/DC snow hole in full effect. What else is new?

If it makes you feel better it's all just aloft west of the bay.

[Eskimo Joe]

While returns are light, they're building as far west as Central Wet Virginia. It would not surprise me to see a dusting to maybe half inch of snow in the metros and immediate suburbs with this second round this afternoon/evening if everything breaks our way.

[IronTy]

I vote @Ellinwoodand @JenkinsJinkiesget to collaborate to write the "What went wrong" post.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I vote @Ellinwoodand @JenkinsJinkiesget to collaborate to write the "What went wrong" post.  

Shifted further east at the last minute? The runs did jump it around a lot.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, mappy said:

What did Parkton Mesonet report? I see it has 2.8” snow depth. There was decent melting yesterday in sunny spots so not sure how much had melted to know new snow depth

@wxmeddler can probably provide more context, but it seems to me that it melted off to about 2", then another ~0.8" accumulated.

[mappy]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

@wxmeddler can probably provide more context, but it seems to me that it melted off to about 2", then another ~0.8" accumulated.

Thanks, that sounds about right. Few spots around me that got 1”+ but I think they were in better bands. It was compacting as fast as it was accumulating when I get up 

[AlexD1990]

Lesson learned: don't REMOTELY trust the GFS. Nam and mesos lead the way in the idea of this starting as rain over here. I have my doubts we even switch over. Hope I'm proved wrong, and hopefully onto tracking the biggies next week.

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[nj2va]

2 hours ago, katabatic said:

Andy said the slopes are in excellent shape. A little fresh powder last night also helps to freshen everything up. Have a super fun day out there!

Conditions were great, the upgrades in snowmaking they made in the summer are noticeable.  About damn time they invest in Wisp - now they just need to install faster lifts at the main chairs.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Lesson learned: don't REMOTELY trust the GFS. Nam and mesos lead the way in the idea of this starting as rain over here. I have my doubts we even switch over. Hope I'm proved wrong, and hopefully onto tracking the biggies next week.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Latest HRRR runs look pretty decent

[CAPE]

Picked up 0.15" of rain this morning. When that ended temp rose to 37. Been slowly dropping since. Currently 34.5. Just need some damn precip lol.

[baltosquid]

Light intermittent snow starting at lake Anna. Thought it would mix initially so that’s a nice surprise. Might get a coating if lucky.

[SnowtoRain]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest HRRR runs look pretty decent

35.1, I'll believe when I see it

[diatae]

Finally some flurries. I'm recording a T right now.

[Ellinwood]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

I vote @Ellinwoodand @JenkinsJinkiesget to collaborate to write the "What went wrong" post.  

Can't write "what went wrong" until the storm's over

Also it's not more of a "what went wrong" as it is uncertainty in the forecast and forecasters choosing which way they wanted to go. If nearly every model shows one solution and then that doesn't even come close to reality, that's when I look into it more.

[peribonca]

Flurries even down south in la Plata right now.

[Demeter]

Finally seeing some flakes here in the Spotsy area. I’ll take that as a win and some snow tv for the next couple of hours, an even bigger win.