Major snowstorm 1/15-16

[vortex95]

 

I haven't followed the entire thread, so they may be content here already mentioned.

 

This is a very complex forecast, and among the weirdest ones I can recall, or should I say challenging.  This could be an odd duck event (CoastalWx immediately thinks of March 7-8, 2013)!

 

It's not often you have two strong s/w troughs so close together in the East vying for "who wins!"  And the eventual
sensible wx outcome in terms of snowfall DCA-BOS may be something that is not apparent until it actually occurs,
w/ some areas doing well and some areas not so well.  CoastalWx will immediately go, "great, just another chance I
get STIFFED for snow in Weymouth, just like I have been a lot this year!"  
 

In the broad pix across NAMR, it looks quite good.  But as usual, it's all in the details.

 

First, the good:

1) Mean trough position is solid in the E w/ axis good for a "CoastalWx Special."

2) Great amplified ridge western U.S.

3) A thing the earlier runs did not have is upstream ridging/blocking in the NATL.  Now it does.  It's not a strong block, but decent height anomalies are there.  Downstream is just as important as upstream aloft!

4) 00z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET all show a quite strong closed 500 low well S either over the Carolinas or southern Mid-Atl.  Something like that crossing the coast should result in decent sfc cyclogenesis.  The UKMET makes the low go sharply negative, while the GFS/ECMWF keep it more neutral tilt.

 

Now for the "problems":

1) The upstream kicker *right* behind it.  Not good.  And you can see on the 00z ECMWF 120 to 132, how strongly the kicker 500 trough deepens (120 and 132 hr ECMWF 500 attached). This messes w/ the lead 500 trough and starts to dampen it.  This is not how KU snowstorms occur.

2)  I don't like the moderately strong closed 500 low over central Quebec.  It limits the s/w ridging ahead of the lead 500 trough.  This should be over Hudson's Bay for the best weenie event.

3) The western U.S. ridge axis is a bit too far W for my liking, so the wavelengths broader than ideal.

 

So you see, a truly complex forecast, much higher than usual for sensible wx specifics!

 

Some musings/caveats:

1) Will the kicker trough try to "dumbbell" the lead trough and its sfc low more N?

2) The intense 500 low crossing the coast before it starts to dampen, how fast will the cyclogenesis be?  How long will it stay tight/consolidated before elongation, if at all?

3) Just b/c 500 feature dampens, does not mean below that weakens much or at all.  You can have a beast of a 850 and sfc low and not much more than a "dent" at 500 (Feb 1983 KU storm comes to mind).

4) Snowfall gaps or spotty.  Look at 00z GFS, decent snow over the Mid-Atl, then a big gap PHL-NYC, and eastern New England does half-decent.  GFS snowfall has the same idea and the UKMET to a lesser extent.  Not the "smooth" snow event CoastalWx has been looking for (if Cape Cod gets crushed and Weymouth screwed - I can hear, "I'M DONE!!!" 

And so many on social media are acting like, "THIS IS IT, the BIG one!" just salivating over the 500 height anomalies colors (color table chosen make all the difference!), and saying something like, "something GOTTA happen w/ such wild anomalies like this!  Big ridge in the W and intense trough in the East, good enough for me!" and just run w/ "end of days" hype.   Well, we don't live at 500 mb, and just b/c the 500 looks great, does *not* mean the sfc is great. And they fail to see the finer details of the pattern I mentioned above that can totally ruin things.
 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

9 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

 

I haven't followed the entire thread, so they may be content here already mentioned.

 

This is a very complex forecast, and among the weirdest ones I can recall, or should I say challenging.  This could be an odd duck event (CoastalWx immediately thinks of March 7-8, 2013)!

 

It's not often you have two strong s/w troughs so close together in the East vying for "who wins!"  And the eventual
sensible wx outcome in terms of snowfall DCA-BOS may be something that is not apparent until it actually occurs,
w/ some areas doing well and some areas not so well.  CoastalWx will immediately go, "great, just another chance I
get STIFFED for snow in Weymouth, just like I have been a lot this year!"  
 

In the broad pix across NAMR, it looks quite good.  But as usual, it's all in the details.

 

First, the good:

1) Mean trough position is solid in the E w/ axis good for a "CoastalWx Special."

2) Great amplified ridge western U.S.

3) A thing the earlier runs did not have is upstream ridging/blocking in the NATL.  Now it does.  It's not a strong block, but decent height anomalies are there.  Downstream is just as important as upstream aloft!

4) 00z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET all show a quite strong closed 500 low well S either over the Carolinas or southern Mid-Atl.  Something like that crossing the coast should result in decent sfc cyclogenesis.  The UKMET makes the low go sharply negative, while the GFS/ECMWF keep it more neutral tilt.

 

Now for the "problems":

1) The upstream kicker *right* behind it.  Not good.  And you can see on the 00z ECMWF 120 to 132, how strongly the kicker 500 trough deepens (120 and 132 hr ECMWF 500 attached). This messes w/ the lead 500 trough and starts to dampen it.  This is not how KU snowstorms occur.

2)  I don't like the moderately strong closed 500 low over central Quebec.  It limits the s/w ridging ahead of the lead 500 trough.  This should be over Hudson's Bay for the best weenie event.

3) The western U.S. ridge axis is a bit too far W for my liking, so the wavelengths broader than ideal.

 

So you see, a truly complex forecast, much higher than usual for sensible wx specifics!

 

Some musings/caveats:

1) Will the kicker trough try to "dumbbell" the lead trough and its sfc low more N?

2) The intense 500 low crossing the coast before it starts to dampen, how fast will the cyclogenesis be?  How long will it stay tight/consolidated before elongation, if at all?

3) Just b/c 500 feature dampens, does not mean below that weakens much or at all.  You can have a beast of a 850 and sfc low and not much more than a "dent" at 500 (Feb 1983 KU storm comes to mind).

4) Snowfall gaps or spotty.  Look at 00z GFS, decent snow over the Mid-Atl, then a big gap PHL-NYC, and eastern New England does half-decent.  GFS snowfall has the same idea and the UKMET to a lesser extent.  Not the "smooth" snow event CoastalWx has been looking for (if Cape Cod gets crushed and Weymouth screwed - I can hear, "I'M DONE!!!" 

 

Thoughts?

 

My first thought is you might have a thing for CoastalWx 

[vortex95]

7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

My first thought is you might have a thing for CoastalWx 

He is just so much an uber snow weenie, probably the biggest one I have ever met, esp. in attitude and mood (up and down so much, depending on the pattern).  I worked w/ him at WSI for a number of years, so I saw the entire gamut/range what it takes to be a snow weenie.  We went back are forth on events so often.  And even 10 years ago, he was still king of the number of posts on AmericanWx, and I used to say "where do you get the time???"  And he would say, "a lot of the them on are other subforums like in sports"  "Yea, right!, I would say!

[vortex95]

06z GFS a bit odd.  Fcst 15z Jan 16, it shows a nicely tucked back deep sfc low near ACK, yet the heavy snow area is surprisingly limited to the NW. 500 low is significantly stronger and still closed off one contour as it passes just S of the region.
 

[MJO812]

Gefs continues to improve 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs continues to improve 

what about the 6Z euro 

[Baroclinic Zone]

I’d like to see that southern stream energy get absorbed into that northern stream sooner, so we can have that bowling ball mature sooner and be an able to wrap in all that southern energy. If, not we are left with this discombobulated mess of a storm. 
 

and has been said before, that kicker is there to make things just that much more complicated.

[Baroclinic Zone]

35 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

what about the 6Z euro 

That’s my fear. That southern stream escapes east and amplifies before our ULL is able to drop in and capture it. Pulls the entire baro zone offshore not allowing our storm to mature soon enough. Everything is more positively tilted vs that southern energy curling back in.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

what about the 6Z euro 

Looks GREAT! 
 

For Flemish Cap

[CoastalWx]

Vortex and I go way back. And don’t let him fool you, he gets pumped for a big one too. When I first started he was too cool to talk to me until one day I brought up the big December 94 subtropical storm and he was flabbergasted that I remembered that storm. That’s when he knew there was a new kid in town. 

[CoastalWx]

The other issue is that all the deep moisture is way offshore. So you’re struggling to generate precip with whatever remains near the Gulf Stream. The result of such a potent s/w with a lacking BZ is that oblong looking low that remains close to the closed off H5 low. 
 

I’d like to see some changes at 12z which likely requires a low much closer to cape cod in order to get anything worthwhile.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Vortex and I go way back. And don’t let him fool you, he gets pumped for a big one too. When I first started he was too cool to talk to me until one day I brought up the big December 94 subtropical storm and he was flabbergasted that I remembered that storm. That’s when he knew there was a new kid in town. 

From the sound of the posts…I’m getting the feeling he’s older than you??  Is this correct?  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

From the sound of the posts…I’m getting the feeling he’s older than you??  Is this correct?  

He is. Huge severe wx weenie too. 

[ORH_wxman]

Let’s get some positive trends today. Potential is still high even if all these moving parts make it a tough system to expect big snows with. But hell, I don’t even need the double digit upside here, as much as many of us want it, I’d take a solid 5-8” event and hope we can tack on other systems in this pattern. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s get some positive trends today. Potential is still high even if all these moving parts make it a tough system to expect big snows with. But hell, I don’t even need the double digit upside here, as much as many of us want it, I’d take a solid 5-8” event and hope we can tack on other systems in this pattern. 

Man that’s all I want. 

[dendrite]

It looks like the euro is going to swing and slam that consolidated vortmax up to the Cape like the goofus and then it just gets sheared and stretched out. 

But like Bob said, a bowling ULL going W-E through the TN valley/MidAtl is a little far south for my liking. Maybe SNE can cook with it, but I’ll need a lot more trending in the deeper interior. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The other issue is that all the deep moisture is way offshore. So you’re struggling to generate precip with whatever remains near the Gulf Stream. The result of such a potent s/w with a lacking BZ is that oblong looking low that remains close to the closed off H5 low. 
 

I’d like to see some changes at 12z which likely requires a low much closer to cape cod in order to get anything worthwhile.

It’s a very flawed set up as currently depicted now.  I’m thinking this has too many flies in the ointment to be anything more then a nuisance at best. I mean there’s plenty of time, but we’ve seen this before. All these other issues are more likely to overwhelm the evolution, and hamper development. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It looks like the euro is going to swing and slam that consolidated vortmax up to the Cape like the goofus and then it just gets sheared and stretched out. 

But like Bob said, a bowling ULL going W-E through the TN valley/MidAtl is a little far south for my liking. Maybe SNE can cook with it, but I’ll need a lot more trending in the deeper interior. 

One good thing is that i do like how potent the energy is. Guidance will often dampen/weaken it too quickly. Hopefully a similar scenario here. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It looks like the euro is going to swing and slam that consolidated vortmax up to the Cape like the goofus and then it just gets sheared and stretched out. 

But like Bob said, a bowling ULL going W-E through the TN valley/MidAtl is a little far south for my liking. Maybe SNE can cook with it, but I’ll need a lot more trending in the deeper interior. 

Yeah when you see that depiction, it looks like we’d get slammed but then it just shears out. 

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s a very flawed set up as currently depicted now.  I’m thinking this has too many flies in the ointment to be anything more then a nuisance at best. I mean there’s plenty of time, but we’ve seen this before. All these other issues are more likely to overwhelm the evolution, and hamper development. 

Heck of a way to run a +PNA

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One good thing is that i do like how potent the energy is. Guidance will often dampen/weaken it too quickly. Hopefully a similar scenario here. 

Yeah agree. When I see this consolidated, beefy vort swinging NE I wouldn’t think it’s going to get stretched out like Gumby 6hr later. I mean, maybe it has the right idea, but I wouldn’t put my eggs in that solution basket yet. 

[mahk_webstah]

It’s kind of cool that there’s so much uncertainty. Given the persistent weak solutions, I would have to think it will be weak.  But sometimes these things have a way of returning to what they were showing initially.  Probably the second system is going to be better.  The CPC flagged that potential a couple of days ago and if it’s a swfe it’s probably a lot less complicated

[moneypitmike]

 

[jbenedet]

The GEFS and EPS are still an open wave frontal boundary evolution.

The very early mid level cut off over the southeast is just a potent meso vort traversing the boundary. It doesn’t allow for a bend back or strengthening of the already diffuse BZ…

So on top of all the limitations—you’re not gonna get the mid level magic out of this either. 

[jbenedet]

Can one of the mods put a weenie tag next to the title of this thread?

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Can one of the mods put a weenie tag next to the title of this thread?

Whats the point? This is a weather forum and we are talking about a possible upcoming storm.

Maybe change the thread to Possible Snowstorm

[Baroclinic Zone]

Dampen out that southern swinging energy or curl it in sooner and I think we have a solid event here.

if southern stream remains strong and separated from the northern ULL than we cloudy skies here with maybe some light snows.

[jbenedet]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Whats the point? This is a weather forum and we are talking about a possible upcoming storm.

Maybe change the thread to Possible Snowstorm

Move to the southeast if you want to call an advisory level threat a major snowstorm.

By New England standards - this isn’t even a storm at this stage. It’s weather in January.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Move to the southeast if you want to call an advisory level threat a major snowstorm.

By New England standards - this isn’t even a storm at this stage. It’s weather in January.

The whole thread was started in jest. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

06z GFS a bit odd.  Fcst 15z Jan 16, it shows a nicely tucked back deep sfc low near ACK, yet the heavy snow area is surprisingly limited to the NW. 500 low is significantly stronger and still closed off one contour as it passes just S of the region.
 

Vortex Dude...please post here more often, nice contributions!