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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am totally fine with where the ggem is. It actually trended better with the larger features. The fact the storm was slightly east was noise 

Yep, I thought it would be a bit better but the trough was just a bit more positive tilted than 12z. That said, you can see how it trended better with the areas that get slammed receiving 3ft+ of snow.  

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:


What pushed it east last minute?

It wasn’t, the track was almost identical to 12z but the storm was slightly more intense but also compact.  Less broad precip shield. It was noise. The overall setup improved. But within each larger scale setup there is variability to the outcome based on small scale variables. IMO this run had a better chance of a good result but we saw a worse ground truth based on some noise level variables not going our way. 

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