January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[EHoffman]

That's something

[stormtracker]

Ha..yeah, we lost a lot of snow.  This far out...we're in a good spot.  Or so they say

[LeesburgWx]

Man, we are so damn close. The trends ticking west each cycle is encouraging. So damn close.

[Nomz]

I saw some 3" per hour rates over 6 hours. insanity.

[derek015]

As someone who lives directly under the 30.2 with an 8.5month pregnant wife, I sure hope this doesn't happen. Only time I've ever said that lol

[psuhoffman]

I am totally fine with where the ggem is. It actually trended better with the larger features. The fact the storm was slightly east was noise 

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

That's something

I’m sure this will be the final result considering how common it is for OCMD and Richmond to get 30”+ of snow 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

I’m sure this will be the final result considering how common it is for OCMD and Richmond to get 30”+ of snow 

DT is their. Not happening lol

[overcautionisbad]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

congrats, richmond!

Nah, too far out. I fully expect 2 inches at best

 

It's like the Skins with Snyder. Cursed as long as DT is near. Lol

[TowsonWeather]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

congrats, richmond!

Imma put this on the record now. If I get 4 inches and the lower eastern shore gets 3.5 feet I will burn this place to the ground.

[Ji]

I am totally fine with where the ggem is. It actually trended better with the larger features. The fact the storm was slightly east was noise 

What pushed it east last minute?

[caviman2201]

Last week reminded/reinforced to me that we really don't want to be in the bullseye at 5 days out... I'm good with where we are

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Imma put this on the record now. If I get 4 inches and the lower eastern shore gets 3.5 feet I will burn this place to the ground.

I rather them get it than NYC-BOS

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

Imma put this on the record now. If I get 4 inches and the lower eastern shore gets 3.5 feet I will burn this place to the ground.

You'd be getting snow on snow. Little if any melting is going to occur thanks to this airmass.

[Amped]

7 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

That's something

We all know Richmond jackpot is always the solution that locks.

[Jebman]

Just now, caviman2201 said:

Last week reminded/reinforced to me that we really don't want to be in the bullseye at 5 days out... I'm good with where we are

Truer words were never spoken.

[Scraff]

Ok so what’s the ETA for the Euro money panels? The fuckin melatonin is kicking in. I’ll need to set an alarm. 

[Heisy]

Just this small amount of tilt changes everything. This is a hair pulling event because the potential is off the charts and just these small factors are fighting against it

[EHoffman]

Just now, Scraff said:

Ok so what’s the ETA for the Euro money panels? The fuckin melatonin is kicking in. I’ll need to set an alarm. 

Randy should be posting the low quality maps for the relevant times in just about an hour or so

[caviman2201]

Ukie looks good so far

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Ok so what’s the ETA for the Euro money panels? The fuckin melatonin is kicking in. I’ll need to set an alarm. 

You mean the weed. 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

And so, will it snow again? Will it be a HECS? Stay tuned, as those are the days of our lives.....

Like sand through the hourglass…and changing to sleet..,

[jayyy]

GGEM moved things further west at 500mb. All I needed to see

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am totally fine with where the ggem is. It actually trended better with the larger features. The fact the storm was slightly east was noise 

Yep, I thought it would be a bit better but the trough was just a bit more positive tilted than 12z. That said, you can see how it trended better with the areas that get slammed receiving 3ft+ of snow.  

[Cobalt]

pretty good GEFS trend.

[SnowDreamer]

Ukie is worlds better than 12Z

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, SnowDreamer said:

Ukie is worlds better than 12Z

Was just about to say the same. Positive trends at 0z so far!

[caviman2201]

Ukie LP position looks good but absolutely anemic NW precip shield

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, caviman2201 said:

Ukie LP position looks good but absolutely anemic NW precip shield

Baby steps

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

What pushed it east last minute?

It wasn’t, the track was almost identical to 12z but the storm was slightly more intense but also compact.  Less broad precip shield. It was noise. The overall setup improved. But within each larger scale setup there is variability to the outcome based on small scale variables. IMO this run had a better chance of a good result but we saw a worse ground truth based on some noise level variables not going our way.