January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I thought @high risk stated a few days ago that it's heavily weighted with ensembles leaning more on the EPS family  if I understood him correctly. 

 

I think Ji hacked it!

[bncho]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I thought @high risk stated a few days ago that it's heavily weighted with ensembles leaning more on the EPS family  if I understood him correctly. 

 

Yeah, but the EPS doesn't even come close to 8" of snow, so it's probably the CMC.

[konksw]

It’s a damn shame these things never trend northwest…

[psuhoffman]

So you know what I’m talking about visually and not just talking out my ass.

This is the trend on the eps since 0z. This is just 18 hours. Look at the position of the eastern trough and western ridge. Now imagine if this same trend continues for another 1-2 days. Or god forbid this same slow bleed were to continue for the whole next 5 days like it did the 5 days leading up to the last storm and frankly has been happening for weeks. This doesn’t mean every run. You get the hiccup run like 12z or the 0z runs last Friday night that buck the overall trend. But imagine if this overall trend continues what this would look like by the weekend!  

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

So you know what I’m talking about visually and not just talking out my ass.

This is the trend on the eps since 0z. This is just 18 hours. Look at the position of the western trough and western ridge. Now imagine if this same trend continues for another 1-2 days. Or god forbid this same slow bleed were to continue for the whole next 5 days like it did the 5 days leading up to the last storm and frankly has been happening for weeks. This doesn’t mean every run. You get the hiccup run like 12z or the 0z runs last Friday night that buck the overall trend. But imagine if this overall trend continues what this would look like by the weekend!  

Congrats Detroit? 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

EPS-AI is about the same as 12z, which means it's a good signal

Beach chase run. Rehoboth..Dogfish Head. Yeah baby.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Congrats Detroit? 

You must be fun at parties 

jk 

[AlexD1990]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman I checked Cips analogs and 1996 isn't on the list but there are some notables in the top 5. 3/2/1980 is #1. That one buried the Hampton roads area. Not sure what happened in DC but i think it was a storm. Jan 2011 is #3 lol. We should just blend those 2 and call it a forecast. 

 

Just looked this one up, and the similarities at h5 are striking 

[EHoffman]

I had dinner with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a eastward trend going forward. Especially with a shortwave diving into Iowa. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Myrtle Beach"

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman I checked Cips analogs and 1996 isn't on the list but there are some notables in the top 5. 3/2/1980 is #1. That one buried the Hampton roads area. Not sure what happened in DC but i think it was a storm. Jan 2011 is #3 lol. We should just blend those 2 and call it a forecast. 

 

It wouldn’t show up because the CIPS are using the gfs day 5 and currently the GFS is way off.  So is the euro frankly. But if they continue to adjust the whole long wave pattern west at the same rate they have been lately the next few days, 1996 might pop up. lol 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill 1980 was decent in DC but a fringe north of there. 2011 was a MD bullseye. But again hard to really worry about analogs when the whole setup is shifting still. 

[Amped]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

That 966 one looks fun


.

Theres a range of outcomes there from the most epic snowstorm of all time that weenies will be talking about for decades, to a cold sunny day.

[MDsnowPRO]

4 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I had dinner with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a eastward trend going forward. Especially with a shortwave diving into Iowa. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Myrtle Beach"

How about Charleston? 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

3/2/1980

The Circus blizzard?

[wxmvpete]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know I seem really confident here... I am not.  And I have no special insight.  But I do know if the trend across guidance of the last 2 weeks or so, ever since the current pattern started of severe -AO and a retrogressing longwave pattern, this will look nothing like what people think of when they say "miller b".  Does that mean this hits...probably not, most of our threats fail, even in a year like 2010, we remember the big hits...we don't remember the 2 storms in December that failed before Dec 19, or the one around New Years, or the one in mid January that made Ji go thermal nuclear and blow up the thread, or the 2 later in February or the one in March that made Ji say the season was ruined.  Even in the absolute BEST possible patterns we fail more than we win...but if we get a good pattern and have it lock in for a significant period of our cold season...we do usually eventually win...and I think we will this year also.  

What I can say about this threat specifically is that unless guidance is way off on the depth of the trough this is not similar to our typical miller b setup.  Could it trend towards that...yea, if the NS wave starts not digging as far south...if we start to see it start to trend northeast...then yea this becomes a typical NYC to Boston storm and yes that could happen.  

But...know what else could happen...if the seasonal trend continues and the whole trough ends up another 200 miles west 5 days from now...this ends up closer to January 1996 than a typical miller b.  That was a northern stream wave that dove in and captured a weak STJ wave also...but it dove in through the Dakotas and right now guidance has this diving in through Wisconsin.  Shift this west a bit and its almost identical to the 1996 setup.  It's also coming as a previous -3stdv greenland block dissipates as it retrogrades into central Canada, which was the setup in 1996 also! 

I am NOT saying this is a 1996 repeat...just that its a lot closer to that type of thing than I think many realize.  If we only get a slight west shift it becomes similar to January 1966, take a look at the h5 in the KU book for that one...its damn close just that one the NS wave dove in around the WI/MN border...slightly west of where guidance has this one.   

It could go the other way, past does not always predict future.  Maye the trend this time is north...or east...or south and the deep south gets clobbered...but if whats been the most common guidance error were to play out...we would end up with a serious threat here from this...that's all I am saying.  

Oh and BTW 1996 looked almost identical to what the models are showing right now when it was 3-5 days out...it didn't morph into a huge storm for us until 24 hours out.  Remember when Bob Ryan cam back on the 11 news after his actual weather segment to say "we're getting a blizzard" at the end of the broadcast.  They didn't even have graphics yet...but the 0z guidance all came out during the 11 news and showed it shifting north.  Until then it was a richmond to NC blizzard.  Yea the guidance is better now...so maybe that correction would happen around day 4 instead of day 1-2 but it's not so much better that a similar error can't happen 5-6 days out from the storm.  

I want to be clear I am also NOT calling for that, but out of curiosity, I looked at the CIPS analogs and felt it provided past winter storms that show the range of scenarios this setup has. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F156&rundt=2026012612&map=thbCOOP72

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said:

How about Charleston? 

Try Lisbon

[Jebman]

31 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

The hopes and dreams of weenies everywhere! Don’t underestimate our collective power!

Hey Dave! Welcome to the Forum! You are hailing from my old stomping grounds, I lived there for 55 years.

No kidding about our collective power. We CAN will this thing, and we WILL Reel this baby home!

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, wxmvpete said:

I want to be clear I am also NOT calling for that, but out of curiosity, I looked at the CIPS analogs and felt it provided past winter storms that show the range of scenarios this setup has. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F156&rundt=2026012612&map=thbCOOP72

I'll take number 2 or 8 please. Can you take my order?. 

[Heisy]

Here is an h5 comparison of the 18z euro vs 6z to show what’s changed in 12 hours. In the grand scheme of things not a whole lot, but in an explosive redeveloping system like this every small change matters. I think one of the biggest changes is the 50/50 positioning.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

I want to be clear I am also NOT calling for that, but out of curiosity, I looked at the CIPS analogs and felt it provided past winter storms that show the range of scenarios this setup has. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F156&rundt=2026012612&map=thbCOOP72

Interesting 2016 is on there. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

I want to be clear I am also NOT calling for that, but out of curiosity, I looked at the CIPS analogs and felt it provided past winter storms that show the range of scenarios this setup has. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F156&rundt=2026012612&map=thbCOOP72

HOLY…

I honestly hadn’t looked at the analogs. I was just looking at the whole H5 setup and going off memory. But DAMN 

[DaleCityDave]

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

Hey Dave! Welcome to the Forum! You are hailing from my old stomping grounds, I lived there for 55 years.

No kidding about our collective power. We CAN will this thing, and we WILL Reel this baby home!

I’ve been lurking here for years. I feel like I know all the usual suspects like they are recurring characters in my favorite movie, snow season!  Decided it was time to come out of the shadows a little bit more!

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

HOLY…

I honestly hadn’t looked at the analogs. I was just looking at the whole H5 setup and going off memory. But DAMN 

Quite funny that it has that early March 2010 fail you brought up a bit earlier as the #1 analog. I remember reading that that was a stone's throw from a significant event, but don't know much about it otherwise. 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Quite funny that it has that early March 2010 fail you brought up a bit earlier as the #1 analog. I remember reading that that was a stone's throw from a significant event, but don't know much about it otherwise. 

North Carolina's biggest storm. And Norfolk got crushed. 

[wxmvpete]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

HOLY…

I honestly hadn’t looked at the analogs. I was just looking at the whole H5 setup and going off memory. But DAMN 

Right?! But seeing the evolution of some the members did give me flash backs to Boxing Day 2010 and late January 2015. Seeing a couple more southern VA and NC snow storms shows those southern tracks too. It shows the true top end of what could happen here as you eluded to. It also shows the misses, and at this range, they should be plausible scenarios. Unless we see those same norther S/W trends we saw last week for the recent weekend storm. Then perhaps we are talking something more impactful forum-wide.

[LeesburgWx]

10 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

I want to be clear I am also NOT calling for that, but out of curiosity, I looked at the CIPS analogs and felt it provided past winter storms that show the range of scenarios this setup has. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F156&rundt=2026012612&map=thbCOOP72

Having 1996 & 2016 in there is eye opening. We are so close here to having a big one. Trends need to continue tonight

[Nomz]

Just got back and ran through the 18z suite. In summary:

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I think 5 inches got up to BWI in 1980. I believe the storm was on a Sunday when Maryland lost in ACC Tournament Championship game to Duke.

Absolutely.  Remember the storm and Terps loss only too well. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The Circus blizzard?

That is the one lol. I've been using analogs more every year to help build a picture of what is possible and what is likely. I wish I could pull euro/eps analogs. CPC uses a superensemble for their lists but those focus on longer range stuff like 1-2 weeks out. Once inside of that window, CIPS has the best bit they only use the gfs op and output is only as good as input haha. 

I've realized that analogs are a really good tool at identifying threat windows out in time. They also help temper my expectation when threats pop up in a hostile period. I've come to expect threats to pop up on ops when CPC analogs are lit up in the 1-2 week range. Once a threat moves towards the mid range, cips really helps narrow down what we're dealing with. 

 

[Solution Man]

16 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

I’ve been lurking here for years. I feel like I know all the usual suspects like they are recurring characters in my favorite movie, snow season!  Decided it was time to come out of the shadows a little bit more!

Welcome