January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Better than 12z, just manually inputted the URL to confirm lol 

[DDweatherman]

[DDweatherman]

132

[clskinsfan]

Once again the Surface low should be more tucked imo. 

[87storms]

36 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Slightly disappointed for sure. Just hoping 0z suite is good. If not then I think we can start tossing this one a tiny bit. Will definitely be out of the watching suite to suite if this isn't back tonight. 

Yea me too…see you tomorrow at 12z.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Once again the Surface low should be more tucked imo. 

It's the slightest bit east with the mean low, but more tucked solutions and definitely deeper mb wise.

[RevWarReenactor]

Too bad the models all went the wrong way today. We are under 140hours, which means I don't think this thing is coming back. It would take a huge shift West at this point. You don't usually see those at this range.

[Terpeast]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

Too bad the models all went the wrong way today. We are under 140hours, which means I don't think this thing is coming back. It would take a huge shift West at this point. You don't usually see those at this range.

We don’t need a huge shift west. Just a small one. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

Too bad the models all went the wrong way today. We are under 140hours, which means I don't think this thing is coming back. It would take a huge shift West at this point. You don't usually see those at this range.

lol plz, we’ve seen storms shift 500 miles in 140 hours.  

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

We don’t need a huge shift west. Just a small one. 

People don't realize how small of a change in 1 or 2 factors here would have drastic downstream effects on this one...

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yea but it’s Nina. We are lucky we for what we got

Fair enough.  Still don’t like this weekend deal. Too far west or east and it blows.  It’s gotta be perfect .  We don’t do perfect well. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Fair enough.  Still don’t like this weekend deal. Too far west or east and it blows.  It’s gotta be perfect .  We don’t do perfect well. 

I mean, I don't like it either. There's a reason for the 10 year big snow drought...

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Fair enough.  Still don’t like this weekend deal. Too far west or east and it blows.  It’s gotta be perfect .  We don’t do perfect well. 

We found out one thing we do well…sleet. We sleet better than anyone

[stormy]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Once again the Surface low should be more tucked imo. 

Instead of 150 miles southeast of Hatteras, it should be on the coast at Morehead City.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS

[Paleocene]

Lol claiming that this thing is cooked is ridiculous. It could very well go the way we want it, miss just offshore, or miss further offshore. The trend this season has been for N and W shifts. We saw last week that NS interactions are very hard to pin down more than 72 hours in advance. We gotta be patient before we toss this or claim victory

[LeesburgWx]

6z threw us a bone and we are in a treadmill trying to catch it. Holding out hope that 18z euro and 00z suite comes back

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Lol claiming that this thing is cooked is ridiculous. It could very well go the way we want it, miss just offshore, or miss further offshore. The trend this season has been for N and W shifts. We saw last week that NS interactions are very hard to pin down more than 72 hours in advance. We gotta be patient before we toss this or claim victory

Well to quit already would be silly. A day ago this wasn't even a possibility, then we saw multiple model suites, ensembles, and AI models give varying solutions that were hits or close. I myself don't love this threat, but its a lot less dead right now than it was this time yesterday even...

[clskinsfan]

I'd be more excited if I was on the Eastern Shore. That's for sure.

[overcautionisbad]

ICON looks good

[Ji]

6z threw us a bone and we are in a treadmill trying to catch it. Holding out hope that 18z euro and 00z suite comes back

It was 18z and 00z before that. It wasn’t one random run

[mitchnick]

18z GGEM at max range of 84hrs

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084

[stormtracker]

20 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Too bad the models all went the wrong way today. We are under 140hours, which means I don't think this thing is coming back. It would take a huge shift West at this point. You don't usually see those at this range.

Yall just be out here saying anything..

[AlexD1990]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I'd be more excited if I was on the Eastern Shore. That's for sure.

maybe that's why I am scratching my head at the doom and gloom in here...

[Paleocene]

18z euro running, our friends across the pond will save us

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro ai trended nw, it’s a hit.  Prob a little better than 12z. 

[stormtracker]

Nothing noteworthy yet.  Early tho

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I'd be more excited if I was on the Eastern Shore. That's for sure.

This one has pure heartbreak for us written all over it.  We get wind. 

[Kevin Reilly]

21 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

People don't realize how small of a change in 1 or 2 factors here would have drastic downstream effects on this one...

Sure just follow the Apple app they went fun 35” Mostly Sunny