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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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This weekends storm is happening during a falling AO. That's less common than when the AO relaxes from an anomalous drop. This is only one piece of puzzle but the large scale features are on our side for a chance at another solid storm late Jan/early Feb

image.thumb.png.5dfe2ce490b4bc50abd3e9fdf8e325bf.png

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, it's all a fantasy, but imagine if that happened

"At least it's not hour 300+" :weenie: 

But that would be a wild progression. Imagine this weekend's storm, icebox cold, a 1-2 inch refresher or cartopper on Thursday and then a deform beatdown the following weekend. 

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temp-gif-1.gif.ef8f20e9cc14e5a9c4ac77be556e35a7.gif

Genuinely absurd temperature output by the Euro after our system. I get that it can be overdone, especially with snowpack, but even if you add 10 Degrees to every low temp it says DC hits single digits 3+ times this upcoming week. Would love to see the City charts from weathermodels if someone has access to that, it's a frame-worthy output. 

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Cold Winter showed its hand when the Arctic was freezing this Summer.. In August we went sub-5000dm, which was the coldest N. Hemisphere H5 on record for Aug. You know the eastern US starting cooling down around that time, too. I ran the analogs, and it fits a perfect warm-to-cold season progression since 2012. 

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