January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[dailylurker]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I told you there was big potential for that window.  Latest EPS and GEFS runs have a signal there.

CAPE storm attempt #2? I'm here for you buddy lol. LFG!

[Eskimo Joe]

00z Euro / EPS and AI-EPS just dump all the cold air over the eastern 2/3rds of North America through the start of February. Looks like a legitimate vodka cold we all dream about as kids. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

49 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

CAPE storm attempt #2? I'm here for you buddy lol. LFG!

Before we get to that, let's get past the potential goon system on the 29th. That is a vigorous NS  vort diving thru and popping a low off the coast. Both gfs and euro have it.

[North Balti Zen]

Is this where I can extrapolate the NAM for February 2?

[H2O]

It has sleet

[North Balti Zen]

15 minutes ago, H2O said:

It has sleet

shit. ah well, on to 2027. 

[Solution Man]

GFS cooking something @ 224

[Bob Chill]

Getting some practice on these setups. A game for the redux

[bncho]

Both storms

[Solution Man]

Ass whooping by the GFS….wow…two weekends in a row

[stormtracker]

Oh damn.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Ass whoopin @240 in gfs long range

 

[WVclimo]

Money shot

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Money shot

GFS put belt to ass

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

GFS put belt to ass

I mean, it's all a fantasy, but imagine if that happened

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I mean, it's all a fantasy, but imagine if that happened

Will keep an eye on it. As @psuhoffman said “sure would like to get the first one in the books first”

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

GFS put belt to ass

 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, it's all a fantasy, but imagine if that happened

Your fantasies are different than mine, but who am I to judge as long as it's between two consenting adults?

[Bob Chill]

This weekends storm is happening during a falling AO. That's less common than when the AO relaxes from an anomalous drop. This is only one piece of puzzle but the large scale features are on our side for a chance at another solid storm late Jan/early Feb

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, it's all a fantasy, but imagine if that happened

"At least it's not hour 300+"  

But that would be a wild progression. Imagine this weekend's storm, icebox cold, a 1-2 inch refresher or cartopper on Thursday and then a deform beatdown the following weekend. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, mattie g said:

 

Your fantasies are different than mine, but who am I to judge as long as it's two consenting adults?

There are some in here who should not read this exchange as it is for adults

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Money shot

Hold up for one gyat-damn second....those pinks over Philly  BWI and DC are the heaviest snow and not sleet?

[Cobalt]

Genuinely absurd temperature output by the Euro after our system. I get that it can be overdone, especially with snowpack, but even if you add 10 Degrees to every low temp it says DC hits single digits 3+ times this upcoming week. Would love to see the City charts from weathermodels if someone has access to that, it's a frame-worthy output. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hold up for one gyat-damn second....those pinks over Philly  BWI and DC are the heaviest snow and not sleet?

It is, you can see the mix line in Delaware. Different purples.

[WxUSAF]

Euro has 2 miller B teases after this weekend 

[mattie g]

Our trip to Wisp next Thursday through Sunday is going to be a little chilly...

[TSSN+]

[Eskimo Joe]

 From @griteater

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Cold Winter showed its hand when the Arctic was freezing this Summer.. In August we went sub-5000dm, which was the coldest N. Hemisphere H5 on record for Aug. You know the eastern US starting cooling down around that time, too. I ran the analogs, and it fits a perfect warm-to-cold season progression since 2012.