January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Your mother finally changed your diaper?

He was conceived?

[brooklynwx99]

this is probably the best shot at repeating a Feb 2021 type stretch (sure, ended up not awesome for the MA, but you’d run it back) in quite some time. hopefully we can cash in… we have high end overrunning potential around the 25th and then a more prototypical big coastal chance as the -NAO decays and the PNA rises

[bncho]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

He was conceived?

Feb 5-6 2010 is the approximate -1 anniversary of my conception. That means I am a gift from the snow gods. The day I turn 18 is the day we get a BECS. You have been warned. 

 

[Conway7305]

Let it be true, out here at Brewery drinking a little for early Happy Hour!  Will cheers to this!…I know it will change but for now….

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Jan 30, 2010 was on the CIPS analog list @wxmvpete showed earlier 

Cpc is pretty solid. Some nice periods in the mix 

[Terpeast]

55 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

 l love digital snow! 

50 member breakdown:

33 dmv hits, 16 suppressed, 1 incomprehensible

so that favors 2/3 odds of a non suppressed hit, and even some suppressed solutions still get us with at least a few inches

[Ji]

Well if Jake says 

Who is Jake? Plumber?

[benjammin]

Who is Jake? Plumber?

Jake from State Farm of course.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Interstate]

Scary when all three global models see the same thing 

[Paleocene]

Pretty good day. Hoping for a good HH

 

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

Coming soon.....

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I loved that storm. Just snowed steady and moderately all day with temps in the mid teens. Ended up with 7" or so here. Pretty sure Lewes had 9-10".

 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The h5 look is pretty similar to the Jan 30, 2010 storm, which produced 5-10" across the area with temps in the teens.

 

1 hour ago, HighStakes said:

I measured a bit under 4 here in Manchester. Wasn't expecting more than a coating to an inch as late as the first flakes. Manchester was the extreme northern edge of the decent snows. I live approximately 3 miles from PA line and it tapered to around 2 inches there so I would concur that Hanover was 1-2 at best.

Oddly though was Westminster that had a good 6 inches. Must have maxed out on the northern band.

 

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Jan 30, 2010 was on the CIPS analog list @wxmvpete showed earlier 

Let's see...oh, yeah. 10.7" fell here for that event, most of central/western VA was in the 9-13" range. That opened the front for more fun the next week. I'd GLADLY take a repeat of those 15 days. 

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Coming soon.....

Hope you recovered from last night. What’s on tap for HH GooFuS?

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

 l love digital snow! 

A 1, 20 or 39 would 'cure' a lot of the snow angst in this forum. LOL, 20 would give @George BM an automatic win in the snow contest. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z NBM continues to improve. Almost all of this accumulation is between Sunday- Th. Next week. 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Hope you recovered from last night. What’s on tap for HH GooFuS?

Somewhat...still shakey over this mf.   

We gonna do it guys.  Good vibes.  Good times coming.  Got the tabs open already.  I can guarantee the use of an F word, one way or the other.

 

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Somewhat...still shakey over this mf.   

We gonna do it guys.  Good vibes.  Good times coming.  Got the tabs open already.  I can guarantee the use of an F word, one way or the other.

 

I'm gonna quote you on that.

[diatae]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Got my ice cold McDonald's sprite ready.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, diatae said:

Got my ice cold McDonald's sprite ready.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm gonna quote you on that.

Now to be clear, @stormtracker did not specify exactly which "F" word he'll use!  So be careful!!  Of course, FOLKS know which one we would like!!

[Scraff]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Somewhat...still shakey over this mf.   

We gonna do it guys.  Good vibes.  Good times coming.  Got the tabs open already.  I can guarantee the use of an F word, one way or the other.

 

Yes! Love it. Only words that start with F are acceptable to describe 18z. There’s only 2 though. No more no less. 

[high risk]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

@high risk my MVP wil likely be able to provide the answer

           So, the question was whether the AI systems retain info cycle to cycle.      They're independent cycles.

           One word of caution for everyone who is excited to see so many hits in the AI ensembles:   the AI ensembles are very underdispersive on the whole, and this will be an area of research going forward.   I would therefore advise caution when they show high probabilities of an event, as they can show high confidence in the wrong outcome.    

 

[ravensrule]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Coming soon.....

You have said that your entire life, unfortunately it never happens. 

[Duca892]

I am here to be crushed or elated based off an 18z run of the GFS for a storm 6-7 days out. Let’s do it

[stormtracker]

So, I checked the ICON for shits and giggles.   has the same features as the Euro, but the s/w out west looks like it's gonna sit back there vs moving out on the Euro

[adelphi_sky]

So many purples in the ensembles. I'm ready to put all my chips in. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

           So, the question was whether the AI systems retain info cycle to cycle.      They're independent cycles.

           One word of caution for everyone who is excited to see so many hits in the AI ensembles:   the AI ensembles are very underdispersive on the whole, and this will be an area of research going forward.   I would therefore advise caution when they show high probabilities of an event, as they can show high confidence in the wrong outcome.    

 

Gunna' be a lot of folks with bloody sleeves over this post.

[bncho]

Oh man, I'm getting...

Spoiler

late-February 2025

...vibes. Just to make it clear, I am not saying we will fail this time, I am still incredibly optimistic. I'm only making the connection because of the amount of hype we have right now.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

           So, the question was whether the AI systems retain info cycle to cycle.      They're independent cycles.

           One word of caution for everyone who is excited to see so many hits in the AI ensembles:   the AI ensembles are very underdispersive on the whole, and this will be an area of research going forward.   I would therefore advise caution when they show high probabilities of an event, as they can show high confidence in the wrong outcome.    

 

Ahh, thank you.  Yes, I recall hearing about under-dispersiveness in the AI ensembles (both Euro AIFS and the AI-GEFS).  I wonder if going forward, that can be remedied in the future, either by somehow perturbing the initial conditions better or how the training is done for each member.