January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[LP08]

Icon is east of east lol

[Scraff]

May the bourbon-barrel-aged stouts summon a happy-hour digital blue blizzard straight to our souls. LFG!!

Oh—and unleash the goonie goo goo! 

[TSSN+]

Like how can you be this far off from the other models under 72hrs is sad lol 

 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Like how can you be this far off from the other models under 72hrs is sad lol 

 

I'm hugging it.

 

Rgem is a good model right? 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro-AI bumped up snow probs for I-95 east. Now 40% - 50% of 1"+ on Sunday.

 

 

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Like how can you be this far off from the other models under 72hrs is sad lol 

 

We back!

[Imgoinhungry]

Rgem is so far west wtf is the deal with these models man. 
 
 

Im convinced they have been awful due to noaa cuts.


.

[ravensrule]

9 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Icon is east of east lol

I have always hated the Germans. 

[WxUSAF]

So our options are so far out to sea or so far west it’s rain?

[stormtracker]

So we've moved on to the next head fake have we?

Ok, cool.  Count me in.

Ya know, we do this to ourselves.

[clueless]

Toss. (Except for model huggers. Enjoy the next 6 hours.) Our flagship American model is just as unreliable.  

[AlexD1990]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So our options are so far out to sea or so far west it’s rain?

YOS.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

My window was 23rd-25th. Anything after that I toss to someone else. I might be tilting too much today to be deserving of a storm anyway.

Chuck was high on this period I think before you, me, and PSU.

I think a Chuck storm might be exactly what we need. But if he makes a single post about a negative fucking PNA it automatically gets transferred to someone else.

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So our options are so far out to sea or so far west it’s rain?

Correct and got the Nam replacement that is a solid hit. 

[Weather Will]

What is the 16-18 thread for, I thought it was the weekend storm.

[bncho]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Chuck was high on this period I think before you, me, and PSU.

I think a Chuck storm might be exactly what we need. But if he makes a single post about a negative fucking PNA it automatically gets transferred to someone else.

Best Chuck Quotes:
"-PNA"
"South-based +NAO"
 

[TSSN+]

Gfs is west and clips dc this run. 

[LP08]

Ai gfs insists for Sunday as well

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is west and clips dc this run. 

It's the GFS though. Always a tease even as the preponderance of guidance suggests this is an outright miss. Gotta see something from the Euro.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

It's the GFS though. Always a tease even as the preponderance of guidance suggests this is an outright miss. Gotta see something from the Euro.

Ya but Nam replacement, Rgem and aigfs are in the same camp. It’s not alone. 

[bncho]

Yeah, RRFS crushes DC SE

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Yeah, RRFS crushes DC SE

We got to webb this one in. 

[wxdude64]

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So our options are so far out to sea or so far west it’s rain?

yes

[Amped]

Typical Nina pattern. First it's cold, dry and windy with the freezing line down to Georgia, then there's a storm or two 300 miles offshore. Then when we finally do get a storm that brings us precip, the freezing line retreats to just south of Buffalo, NY. Then we rinse and repeat.

[87storms]

Late next week definitely looks like the period to watch.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

Yeah, RRFS crushes DC SE

Imma read the latest AFD from Mount Holly- I'm positive they are going to mention the RRFS experimental model. Oh and the RGEM.

[Scraff]

Anyone want to comment on the ROFLMAO model? Pummeled, mauled, raked. Get your Jebman shovels ready. We’ll be diggin for days. 
 

PS—those BA stouts definitely did a number on me. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Anyone want to comment on the ROFLMAO model? Pummeled, mauled, raked. Get your Jebman shovels ready. We’ll be diggin for days. 
 

PS—those BA stouts definitely did a number on me. 

Those things looked damned tasty!!  Stouts at this time of year are perfect!

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Imma read the latest AFD from Mount Holly- I'm positive they are going to mention the RRFS experimental model. Oh and the RGEM.

No mention. 

[MillvilleWx]

The AIFS not wavering and AIFS-Ensemble also upping the ante for at least the eastern shore should raise some eyebrows for Sunday. This is typically when you have to start paying closer attention. We are getting inside 72 hrs.