January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mappy]

lol this place cracks me up. 

[NorthArlington101]

I'm a huge believer in Jan 23-Jan 28. Legit cold, OPs throwing out consistent hits (some historic) in the long range, great snow/precip means, etc. Don't see what isn't to like. 

[Terpeast]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm a huge believer in Jan 23-Jan 28. Legit cold, OPs throwing out consistent hits (some historic) in the long range, great snow/precip means, etc. Don't see what isn't to like. 

Yeah, the teleconnection indices are becoming more favorable for us in that time frame than they are this week. 

[H2O]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bullying works in this context.  The young ones always go thru this transition. Some slower than others. But they get there.  

please explain Ji.  He hasn't gotten 'there' yet in 15+ years

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

All of our classic winters go like this lol. The lack of snow in the nw zones is actually getting kinda weird. I haven't even been able to snow hike in the Catoctins. The top of the Catoctins has done worse then my area for many years now.

We'll reach the half-way point of winter out here with 1" of snow.  1".  And in a winter that has averaged BN temps.  And on the heels of 9 consecutive BN snow winters.

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

please explain Ji.  He hasn't gotten 'there' yet in 15+ years

Schtick.  

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm a huge believer in Jan 23-Jan 28. Legit cold, OPs throwing out consistent hits (some historic) in the long range, great snow/precip means, etc. Don't see what isn't to like. 

Plenty to like. Starting with the 500 mb pattern. Confluence to the north and height lines oriented SW to NE, with a flattened SE ridge. Great look for the MA and folks in the SE should pay attention too.

Add the +Precip anomalies from mid south-Tennesse Valley into into the MA, and colder than avg temps. I didn't even look at snow maps(no need to) when I made my earlier post about this period. Potential is there, we just need an event or 2 to actually materialize.

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm a huge believer in Jan 23-Jan 28. Legit cold, OPs throwing out consistent hits (some historic) in the long range, great snow/precip means, etc. Don't see what isn't to like. 

 

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, the teleconnection indices are becoming more favorable for us in that time frame than they are this week. 

That’s been my favorite “window” for a while but was trying not to deb on the threats before. Besides it’s too far out to say anything other than I like the general pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Schtick.  

This. He is more grounded, for example, on his Facebook page. He lets his tortured snow weenie soul vent here. I think maybe it’s therapy for him. I don’t mind it. Easy enough to ignore when it becomes too much. But I get why some get annoyed. 

[bncho]

Late January IMO is a simpler setup. All we need is a wave to tap into the cold air and boom. It's also reassuring to see the AN precip anomalies over us and the TN valley; signals that the STJ should be more active.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This. He is more grounded, for example, on his Facebook page. He lets his tortured snow weenie soul vent here. I think maybe it’s therapy for him. I don’t mind it. Easy enough to ignore when it becomes too much. But I get why some get annoyed. 

He can take that part to the banter thread. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

That’s been my favorite “window” for a while but was trying not to deb on the threats before. Besides it’s too far out to say anything other than I like the general pattern. 

Exactly. Its early. I said the same thing and posted some graphics to illustrate. I guess the snow maps provide more support, but they will be constantly posted going forward now, and when they don't look so good...

 

[TSSN+]

One interesting upper air map.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looks better than 6z, trough is further west and digging further south.

[Solution Man]

Different look @ 153, she gone

[TSSN+]

Tries to turn but just doesn’t get there enough this run. Maybe can keep trending who knows. Throws little bit over the se this run. 

[NorthArlington101]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Exactly. Its early. I said the same thing and posted some graphics to illustrate. I guess the snow maps provide more support, but they will be constantly posted going forward now, and when they don't look so good...

 

I fully respect the synoptics and realize that they drive the surface, but IMO one of the big flags for this upcoming "fail" was the lack of snow on the ens means. Could be a blind squirrel finding a nut but even as we saw positive h5 shifts they stayed stubbornly uninterested. AIs never liked it either. Seeing the AI guidance and the snow means responding to this period adds to my interest.

[winter_warlock]

58 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm a huge believer in Jan 23-Jan 28. Legit cold, OPs throwing out consistent hits (some historic) in the long range, great snow/precip means, etc. Don't see what isn't to like. 

Ur a huge believer in what the models saying 11-15 days out?? Lol  those models won't even look like that in 2 weeks lmaooo 

[SnowenOutThere]

The issue of the 12z GFS for the cape storm is not the southern vort - which pulls its weight and tries to develop - but instead the northern vort lobe which ruins any chance of it amplifying.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

you're right, actually, h5 has been looking pretty damn good this winter (e.g. Jan 15 ULL) but those h5 looks aren't translating to the surface, where's it's often cold and dry.

I don’t think it’s been that great unless you enjoy moisture starved northern stream systems that mostly leave us with wind and clouds.

I’d like to see a more established, deeper, and wester east coast trough. The drought conditions resulting from such a detached, inconsistent southern stream is getting legit.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

lol so what? 

AI is the shit. Its everywhere for everything.

LOL at the 'disagrees'.

Do I really need to translate this post?

AI is becoming prolific, like it or not.

There is always the bad- something practical impacting consumers is AI is driving up the price of memory. If you need a new digital device, might want to buy one now. I bought a new computer a week ago on a deal.

 

[mitchnick]

I'll  take the Canadian please. 2 shots

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Ur a huge believer in what the models saying 11-15 days out?? Lol  those models won't even look like that in 2 weeks lmaooo 

It's more about the general pattern than discreet threats at that range. 11-15 days is a good range for pattern stuff. For example, mid January was kinda the benchmark for the pattern change, and...despite the potential misses, you can see the chsnge happening. I won't attempt to explain as I couldn't; but layman eyes see stuff flowing differently on the models

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll  take the Canadian please. 2 shots

No way I could buy that those two waves don't destroy each other or do something else dumb like snow in the south, lol

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

 

AI is the shit. 

Who doesn't love it when the NAO enters the middle of the country and disrupts the fried eggs coming out of the gulf?

[Chris78]

Pretty crappy gfs run overall.

I hope the Esembles show some hope....

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Who doesn't love it when the NAO enters the middle of the country and disrupts the fried eggs coming out of the gulf?

Considering Florida is completely gone from the map maybe this is a post climate change hell world. That said, fuck generative ai, we need our brains more than ever. 

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Pretty crappy gfs run overall.

I hope the Esembles show some hope....

A more optimistic takeaway would be a lot of opportunities from the medium range to the extended. 24th/26th/28th all close and still room for the 18th/19th. 

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

A more optimistic takeaway would be a lot of opportunities from the medium range to the extended. 24th/26th/28th all close and still room for the 18th/19th. 

My only real complaining post I can make on this is that I don't think any of these shots are particularly likely at this time so it seems to be a lot of tracking with a questionable reward. The 18/19th is still very possible but we need to start seeing signs of life soon; beyond that is too far to really get invested in so they are low probability until proven otherwise. 

[wxmeddler]

Just saw the 12z GFS and came in to say that whenever you have 3 streams/waves interacting, the results are either explosive or disappointing. And 90% of the time, it's the latter. 

Stay full-hearted weenies. The overall pattern is good and we're entering peak season.