January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

So the 7th and 14th  are out now for the delayed mantra?  21st   looking better?

When are you going to give it up? Your constant griping is painfully ignorant.

[bncho]

lots of big hits on the GEFS, probably why the snow mean is so high

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

So the 7th and 14th  are out now for the delayed mantra?  21st   looking better?

Jan 28-Jan 37 look tasty

[Daniel Boone]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

Jan 28-Jan 37 look tasty

Especially the 37th

[dailylurker]

34 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

When are you going to give it up? Your constant griping is painfully ignorant.

Dude needs my Airbnb connection on the Tug Hill for a week. He'd feel better. I know i do lol. 

Euro looks better. I think winter is coming back in 2 weeks.

[87storms]

We’re due for a CFP championship mecs.

[stormy]

On 1/4/2026 at 1:38 PM, stormy said:

Capsulized reality:

December averaged 4 - 5 degrees colder than normal.

A January thaw will occur for the next week - 10 days.  There are mixed signals after that.

Snow threats have evaporated until after the 15th.  Pray for rain to alleviate our serious drought.

Smile and enjoy the thaw, as I will be.  Crank up the grill for a backyard barbecue!!

My grill will be humping in about 2 hrs.......................   2 bone in skin on split chicken breasts, side smoked over seasoned apple slabs.

3 ozs. of Black Jack on the rocks and I will be set. 

Dinner is served at 6.

[TSG]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Its the wild west out there--no wonder the meteorology  field is so damaged

 

ok? Screenshot of a singlular clickbait youtube channel. What does this prove? There's plenty of non-garbage to find out there as well. The stuff that shows up on your home page reflects what you sit and watch most often more than anything else...

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Perma-Nina makes stream phasing more complicated than usual. Next year’s moderate Modiki Nino is going to have triple phasers galore. Trust. 

When we get the Nino and active stj the NS will go dormant and cold air will stay bottled up. Cmon, you know how we roll. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, HighStakes said:

When are you going to give it up? Your constant griping is painfully ignorant.

Painfully true which creates painful ignorance and outbursts from model worshippers 

[wxmeddler]

Assume no snow until overwhelming evidence proves otherwise is my mantra.

60 percent of the time... it works... every-time.

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Assume no snow until overwhelming evidence proves otherwise is my mantra.

60 percent of the time... it works... every-time.

No snow panther 

[SnowGolfBro]

9 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Assume no snow until overwhelming evidence proves otherwise is my mantra.

60 percent of the time... it works... every-time.

This is illegal in 9 countries…

[Ji]

ensembles look pretty darn cold for Jan 19-20. Sorry howard...it got pushed back a few days

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

lots of big hits on the GEFS, probably why the snow mean is so high

And a lot of misses, still. Looks 50/50 or 40/60 to me. 

[Ji]

this is a good look for Feb 2026

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And a lot of misses, still. Looks 50/50 or 40/60 to me. 

its better than the standard 95/5

[Ji]

why is everyone so downbeat? We got a lot of winter

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

why is everyone so downbeat? We got a lot of winter

WB 12Z EPS probabilities for 3 inches the next 15 days....hopefully this will increase by the weekend.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

why is everyone so downbeat? We got a lot of winter

In 2015 winter started in mid Feb. That was a fun few weeks. At least we have had plenty of cold and at least some snow in December already. if we end up taking 7-10 days off from actual winter weather, not the end of the world.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

In 2015 winter started in mid Feb. That was a fun few weeks. At least we have had plenty of cold and at least some snow in December already. if we end up taking 7-10 days off from actual winter weather, not the end of the world.

i was thinking about that just a few minutes ago. Talk about having to be patient lol. I think on super bowl sunday were were once modeled to get snow and it became a rain storm....and it felt like the end...but then after that...it was non stop

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS probabilities for 3 inches the next 15 days....hopefully this will increase by the weekend.

this isnt true. The most important ensemble member gives us 3-4 inches.

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

This region needs to be like the Upper Plains. Why cant we get a jump like this under 5 days out in 1 run?

[wxdude64]

30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

This region needs to be like the Upper Plains. Why cant we get a jump like this under 5 days out in 1 run?

It happens, just that we're usually St Louis. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Perma-Nina makes stream phasing more complicated than usual. Next year’s moderate Modiki Nino is going to have triple phasers galore. Trust. 

You should trademark that phrase.  Lol

[mitchnick]

18z gfs has a potential clipper around day 10. Maybe explosive? 

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

18z gfs has a potential clipper around day 10. Maybe explosive? 

Damn that thing. So close.

[mitchnick]

Anybody watch this?

 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Damn that thing. So close.

and what if it was a hit.....what would you do?

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

and what if it was a hit.....what would you do?

Ask my wife to marry me.